The Chicago White Sox (86-67) continue their five-game series with the Cleveland Indians (75-77) Friday. First pitch from Progessive Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the White Sox vs. Indians odds with MLB picks and predictions.
These teams split a seven-inning doubleheader Thursday with the White Sox winning the first 7-2 and the Indians taking the second game 5-3.
Season series: Tied 8-8.
RHP Dylan Cease is Chicago’s projected starter. Cease is 12-7 with a 4.09 ERA (156 1/3 IP, 71 ER), 1.26 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 12.2 K/9 across 30 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 8-0, with 5 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 10 K Sept. 17 at the Texas Rangers.
- Cease lost 6-5 on the road in his only start against Cleveland this season with 3 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 2 K.
- vs. Indians on the current roster (31 PA): 5.70 FIP with a .333 batting average (BA), .440 wOBA, .427 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 32.3 K% and 88.4 mph exit velocity (EV).
RHP Shane Bieber makes his 15th start for the Indians. Bieber is 7-4 with a 3.28 ERA (90 2/3 IP, 33 ER), 1.25 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 12.9 this year.
- Last outing: Loss, 6-2, with 5 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 10 H, 2 BB and 8 K June 13 vs. the Seattle Mariners.
- Bieber is 3-0 in three starts this season against Chicago with a 2.05 ERA (22 IP, 5 ER), 0.86 WHIP and 7.3 K/BB.
- vs. White Sox on the current roster (164 PA): 3.05 FIP with a .250 BA, .303 wOBA, .387 xSLG, 32.9 K% and 90.1 mph EV.
White Sox at Indians odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:40 p.m. ET.
- Money line: White Sox -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Indians +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: White Sox -1.5 (+135) | Indians +1.5 (-170)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
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Prediction
Indians 6, White Sox 3
Money line (ML)
GIMME the INDIANS (+100) for 1 unit because Bieber’s pitching peripherals and basic numbers against the White Sox are far better than Cease’s against Cleveland’s lineup.
Chicago is a bad road team and Cease’s pitching performance declines when he’s away from home. The White Sox are 37-40 overall on the road and Cease has a 5.02 road ERA (3.22 ERA at home) and a 1.37 road WHIP (1.16 WHIP at home).
Furthermore, Chicago is kind of snoozing down the stretch with not much to play for – the White Sox are 5-5 overall in their last 10 games – and these teams have played to a draw thus far.
Lastly, we have “reverse line movement” in the betting market as nearly 90% of the cash wagered has been on Chicago but the line is moving in Cleveland’s direction, according to Pregame.com. Whenever the sportsbook makes the more popular side cheaper it suggests they believe that side is mispriced.
If you’re giving me an even- or a plus-money payout with the reigning AL Cy Young at home against a team he’s dominated, how can I pass? BET the INDIANS (+100).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because the Indians +1.5 (-170) is a terrible bet considering Cleveland is 15-18 ATS as a home underdog even though getting a run-and-a-half worth of insurance with Bieber on the mound would be awesome.
Over/Under (O/U)
TAKE OVER 7.5 (-130) for 1 unit because the presumed sharp side of the market is backing the Over while the public is betting the Under.
Close to 90% of the money is on the Over but roughly 70% of the bets placed are on the Under according to Pregame.com at the time of writing.
Typically, it’s profitable to follow the money in sports betting when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the public.
Furthermore, there are several Over-friendly trends in this White Sox-Indians matchup including these teams being a combined 22-19 O/U record when these starters are on the mound.
Also, the Under is heavily juiced, which suggests the oddsmakers want more pro-Over bets. We don’t want to play into the House’s hands.
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