The Chicago White Sox (11-13) visit Beantown Friday to start a 3-game set with the Boston Red Sox (10-16) at Fenway Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the White Sox vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Chicago is off to a disappointing start to 2022 but has won 4 of its last 5 games including back-to-back victories over the crosstown rival Chicago Cubs in Wrigley Field Tuesday-Wednesday.
Boston are 3-7 overall in the last 10 games and has lost five straight series to the Toronto Blue Jays (twice), Tampa Bay Rays, Baltimore Orioles and Los Angeles Angels.
The White Sox beat the Red Sox 4-3 in last year’s season series but Boston outscored Chicago 34-30 in those meetings.
White Sox at Red Sox projected starters
RHP Vince Velasquez vs. RHP Nathan Eovaldi
Velasquez (1-2, 4.58 ERA) beat the Los Angeles Angels Saturday 4-0, throwing 5 2/3 IP with 4 H, 0 BB and 6 K. He has a 4.34 FIP, 19 H, 3 ER, 7 BB and 19 K in 17 2/3 IP across 4 starts.
- 2021 vs. Red Sox: 0-1 with a 19.64 ERA (3 2/3 IP, 8 ER), 6 H, 3 HR, 4 BB and 5 K in 1 relief appearance and 1 start while pitching for the Philadelphia Phillies.
- vs. Red Sox on the current roster: 10.02 FIP with a .262 expected batting average (xBA), .392 expected wOBA (xwOBA), .567 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 20.6 K% and 88.3 mph exit velocity (EV) in 68 plate appearances (PA).
Eovaldi (1-0, 2.51 ERA) got a no-decision in Boston’s 2-1 loss at the Baltimore Orioles Saturday, going 7-scoreless IP with 3 H, 0 BB and 8 K. He has a 4.46 FIP, 0.94 WHIP, 0.9 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 28 2/3 IP over 5 starts.
- 2021 vs. White Sox: One-start, 11-4 win with 6 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 9 H, 0 BB and 10 K April 19.
- vs. White Sox on the current roster: 5.15 FIP with a .197 xBA, .277 xwOBA, .435 xSLG, 27.5 K% and 89.3 mph EV in 40 PA.
White Sox at Red Sox odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:12 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): White Sox +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Red Sox -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): White Sox +1.5 (-145) | Red Sox -1.5 (+120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)
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White Sox at Red Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Red Sox 5, White Sox 3
Money line
LEAN to the RED SOX (-175) because this is an expensive price point for a Boston team that has struggled out the gate and the Red Sox’s bullpen cannot be trusted to hold a lead. Boston’s relievers lead the MLB in blown saves (7) and are just 5-9 overall.
However, the Red Sox are 10-1 overall in Eovaldi’s last 11 starts as a home favorite and Velasquez is a pitcher I like to fade, especially coming off a quality start. Velasquez’s road ERA, WHIP and K/9 for his career are all worse than his home marks.
Boston’s ML would have more value if its bullpen wasn’t so terrible but the RED SOX (-175) for a tiny wager should cash.
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Run line/Against the spread
BET the RED SOX -0.5 FIRST 5-INNING RUN LINE (-122) to avoid their bullpen blowing another save and costing us money in the long run and because Boston has a sizeable edge in the starting pitching matchup Friday.
Also, Velasquez got nuked in his visit to Fenway last season for 8 ER on 6 H, 3 HR and 4 BB in just 2 1/3 IP.
The RED SOX -0.5 FIRST 5-INNING RUN LINE (-122) is my favorite wager in this game.
Over/Under
LEAN to the UNDER 8.5 (-120) since the total is dropping due to sharp line movement even though both lineups have stacked with known sluggers, neither bullpen has been any good thus far and Fenway is a notorious hitter-friendly ballpark.
But, I have a tough time betting an Under in Velasquez start and both lineups will show up eventually this year.
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