The Chicago Cubs (20-14) begin a three-game set against the NL Central-rival Pittsburgh Pirates (10-22) Tuesday. First pitch at PNC Park is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. We analyze the Cubs-Pirates betting odds and lines, with MLB picks and best bets.
Cubs at Pirates: Projected starting pitchers
LHP Jon Lester vs. RHP Chad Kuhl
Lester: 2-1, 4.55 ERA, 1.200 WHIP, 22 K, 5 BB, 16 ER, 31 2/3 IP, 6 starts
- Gave up four home runs and eight earned runs in a loss to the Chicago White Sox Aug. 21, but bounced backed to allow only a single earned run last Wednesday against the Detroit Tigers.
- Has a 1.13 road ERA through three starts and 16 total innings as a visitor.
Kuhl: 1-1, 2.52 ERA, 1.080 WHIP, 20 K, 11 BB, 7 ER, 25 IP, 4 stars (2 relief appearances)
- A 4.0 BB/9 and 1.8 HR/9 don’t bode well against a Cubs team walking in 11.4% of plate appearances and with a .196 team ISO.
- Has a 1.42 ERA at home through two starts and a relief appearance.
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Cubs at Pirates: Key injuries
Get the latest injury news here.
Cubs
- 3B Kris Bryant (wrist) questionable
- OF Steven Souza Jr. (hamstring) questionable
Pirates
- RP Keone Kela (forearm) out
- OF Bryan Reynolds (paternity leave) out
Also see: BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
Cubs at Pirates: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:24 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Cubs 7, Pirates 3
Moneyline (ML)
The CUBS (-162) are the clear and easy pick Tuesday. They’re coming off a 10-1 win against the Cincinnati Reds Sunday and the offense will make quick work of Kuhl, who has a boatload of regression headed his way due to the awful walk rate. The Cubs are atop the NL Central while the Pirates (+145) toil away in fifth, as expected coming into the season.
The Cubs swept a three-game set at Wrigley Field a month ago. The Pirates covered the spread in two of the three games and two of the three played to the Under. Expect better from the Chicago offense with Bryant likely to make his return.
New to sports betting? A $10 bet on the Cubs (-162) to win returns a profit of $6.17.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
There’s a much better profit margin to be had on the run line when backing CUBS -1.5 (-110). The Pirates are not a good team and Kuhl is off to a much better start than he deserves with a 2.52 ERA but 4.98 xFIP that’s more indicative of his control struggles.
Lester was able to bounce back against the lowly Tigers last time out and should be able to go deep into Tuesday’s game to spare bettors from the dreaded Cubs bullpen.
Over/Under (O/U)
Take the OVER 9.5 (-110). Even if Kuhl is able to hold his own, both teams will be able to score a bunch of runs late against bullpens ranked in the bottom 10 of MLB by ERA.
Esten’s MLB betting record: 30-32
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