The Chicago Cubs (5-6) and Milwaukee Brewers (6-5) put a lid on their NL Central series at American Family Field Wednesday at 1:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cubs vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Jake Arrieta is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs. In 11 starts over the last two seasons (2020-21), Arrieta is 6-4 with a 4.47 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 6.6 K/9, and 3.2 BB/9 in 56 1/3 IP. The veteran right-hander has a history of fast starts: he owns a .650 OPS-against in 42 career March/April starts. He also has a fine history in Milwaukee’s home park (.578 OPSA in seven starts).
RHP Corbin Burnes draws the home start for the Brewers. Over 14 games the last two seasons, Burnes is 4-2 with a 1.87 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 13.5 K/9, and 3.0 BB/9 in 72 IP. He has only allowed 1 ER on two hits through 12 1/3 IP in two turns this season. Over those two starts, Burnes fanned 20 batters without issuing a walk.
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Cubs at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:30 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Cubs +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Brewers -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Cubs +1.5 (-135) | Brewers -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Brewers 5, Cubs 3
Money line (ML)
The Chicago offense typically is not at its best against right-handed pitchers and thus far in 2021, that certainly holds true for the Cubs. They are 2-6 against right-handed starters.
The Cubs won Tuesday’s contest, 3-2, but are still too far off their game offensively with just 2.90 runs per game (30th in MLB) to make them an attractive side. Arrieta does not have a good line against current Brewers hitters (high-contact .801 OPS allowed), and his surface stats through two starts are generous compared to the dangerous contact he has yielded. He’s a fly-ball pitcher living dangerously. And in this get-away matinee contest, he’s backed by the more taxed bullpen.
Milwaukee is the lean. The price on the ML is too rich, though.
PASS.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
It’s no slam dunk against a Cubs team plating a bunch of low-scoring games thus far, but the run-line price on Milwaukee is workable in what figures as an Over lean on the total. BACK THE BREWERS -1.5 (+110).
Over/Under (O/U)
Peg both offenses as being snake bitten by low batting averages on balls in play. Add in the fade lean on Arrieta and TAKE THE OVER 7.5 (-115).
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