The Los Angeles Dodgers (44-30) host the Chicago Cubs (41-33) Thursday to start a four-game series at Dodger Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cubs vs. Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Cubs lead 3-0.
RHP Zach Davies is on the bump for the Cubs. Davies is 4-4 with a 4.66 ERA (73 1/3 IP, 38 ER), 1.49 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 5.5 K/9 across 15 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 10-2, with 6 IP, 8 ER, 7 H, 3 BB and 2 K vs. the Miami Marlins Friday.
- vs. Dodgers on the current roster: 136 at-bats with a .243/.285/.368 slash line, 30/8 K/BB, 4 HR and 11 RBIs.
RHP Walker Buehler makes his 15th start for the Dodgers. Buehler is 7-0 with a 2.38 ERA (90 2/3 IP, 24 ER), 0.90 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Win, 9-3, with 7 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 2 BB and 11 K Saturday at the Arizona Diamondbacks.
- Buehler picked up a no-decision in L.A.’s 6-5 loss at Chicago May 5 with a stat line of 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 8 K.
- vs. Cubs on the current roster: 55 at-bats with a .236/.276/.455 slash line, 12/2 K/BB, 2 HR and 6 RBIs.
MLB betting offers/promotions
BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.
- Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
- RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!
Cubs at Dodgers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:01 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Cubs +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Dodgers -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Cubs +1.5 (+100) | Dodgers -1.5 (-120)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Cubs 4, Dodgers 2
Money line (ML)
Slight “LEAN” to the CUBS (+200) for a quarter unit – if at all – because I like the value in Chicago’s run line so much so that I’ll sprinkle on the underdog money line.
The Cubs have the better pitching staff in this matchup. Chicago’s bullpen had an off-day Wednesday and a top-10 unit in several advanced pitching categories while L.A.’s bullpen has the third-worst left-on-base percentage and third-most blown saves.
Also, Davies’ pitching peripherals against current L.A. batters are better across the board (FIP, exit velocity, wOBA, K% and expected slugging percentage) than Buehler’s vs. active Cubs hitters.
Furthermore, the Dodgers lineup should be easier to navigate than normal if Mookie Betts misses his second straight game with an illness and with SS Corey Seager already on the IL for a hand injury.
Finally, we have a “fade the market” angle since a vast majority of the action is on L.A.’s money and run lines.
According to Pregame.com, nearly 85% of the bets placed on the money line are on the Dodgers and almost 95% of the action is on L.A.’s run line as well.
FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition. Subscribe now!
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Definitely BET the CUBS +1.5 (+100) heavier than or instead of Chicago’s money line for all the aforementioned reasons.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET the UNDER 8.5 (-105) for 1 unit because of Davies’ impressive track record vs. L.A., Buehler being the best starter in the Dodgers’ rotation, and the market barreling into the Over so much that it has caused oddsmakers to move the Cubs-Dodgers total up from the 7.5-run opener.
Moreover, before Chicago’s slump-busting 7-1 victory Tuesday over the Cleveland Indians, the Cubs scored three or fewer runs in nine consecutive games.
PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!
Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]