The Chicago Cubs (17-10) have benefited from a lot of games at home, where they are 12-8, in the early going. They will carry a 5-2 road mark into their first matchup with the Detroit Tigers (11-15). First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET at Comerica Park. We analyze the Cubs-Tigers betting odds and lines, with MLB picks and best bets.
Cubs at Tigers: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Alec Mills vs. RHP Casey Mize
Mills had his worst start of the year in his last outing, when he allowed six earned runs in 3 2/3 innings against the St. Louis Cardinals. Overall, he boasts a 4.76 ERA through four starts, with 15 strikeouts in 22 2/3 innings.
- The sample is small, but Mills has fared better in his career on the road, where he owns a 2.67 ERA along with 31 strikeouts and 10 walks through 30 1/3 innings.
- He has made 10 starts and 13 relief appearances in his career, and has had better results as a starter. He has put up a 3.88 ERA and 9.1 K/9 in the role, compared to a 4.39 ERA and 10.1 K/9 out of the pen.
Mize just made his first career start last week, in which he allowed three earned runs in 4 1/3 innings, but with a strong 7:0 K:BB.
- He is one of the top pitching prospects in the game and coming off an outstanding year split between Class High-A and Double-A. He made 21 total starts, including 15 at Double-A Erie. In all, he compiled a 2.55 ERA and 8.7 K/9.
- He threw a total of 73 pitches in his first start, and induced 11 swinging strikes. According to Brooks Baseball, he threw five different pitches at least nine times in the game.
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Cubs at Tigers: Key injuries
Get the latest injury news here.
Cubs
- 3B Kris Bryant (wrist) out
- OF Steven Souza (hamstring) out
Tigers
- 2B Jonathan Schoop (hamstring) questionable
- 1B C.J. Cron (knee) out for season
- OF Cameron Maybin (leg) questionable
Also see: BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
Cubs at Tigers: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:20 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Cubs 5, Tigers 4
Moneyline (ML)
- Cubs -139
- Tigers +125
Mills struggled in his last start, and is getting far fewer swings and misses than he had in his 54 major league innings the past two seasons. He should bounce back in this one, though, against a Detroit offense ranked 27th in OPS vs RHP, with the highest K%.
Mize showed off his swing-and-miss stuff in his first start, but he’ll face another tough test today, and still isn’t likely to work real deep into the game. The CUBS (-139) hold the offensive edge, and should end up on top in this one.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
- Cubs -1.5 (+105)
- Tigers +1.5 (-129)
Out of 17 wins for the Cubs, six have been by a single run. Betting on them to win by multiple runs Monday at roughly even odds doesn’t seem like a very good value, so PASS on the run line.
Over/Under (O/U)
Both starting pitchers can be expected to have pretty solid games, as Mills has a good matchup, and Mize possesses electric stuff. You may be sweating it out once the shaky bullpens take over, but a slight lean to the UNDER 9.5 (-110) is the recommendation in this one.
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