The Chicago Cubs (18-12) visit the Cincinnati Reds (13-17) for the first game of a four-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET at the Great American Ball Park. We analyze the Cubs-Reds betting odds and lines, with MLB picks and best bets.
Cubs at Reds: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Kyle Hendricks vs. RHP Tyler Mahle
Hendricks in 2020: 3-3 with a 3.55 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 6.6 K/9 and 0.9 BB/9 (lowest in the majors) in 38 IP over 6 starts.
- Last start: Loss in 5⅓ IP with 7 H, 3 ER, 3 K and 1 BB against the Chicago White Sox last Saturday.
- Career vs. Reds: 6-4 with a 4.21 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 94 K and 31 BB in 102⅔ IP over 18 starts; Career at Great American Ball Park (GABP): 2-4 with a 6.57 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 36 ER in 49⅓ IP over 9 starts.
Mahle in 2020: 0-1 with a 4.41 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 11.6 K/9 and 4.4 BB/9 in 16⅓ IP over 3 starts and 1 appearance.
- Last start: Loss in 3 IP with 5 H, 3 ER, 5 K, 2 BB at the St. Louis Cardinals Sunday.
- Career vs. Cubs: 2-1 with a 3.74 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 29 K and 10 BB in 33⅔ IP over 6 starts.
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Cubs at Reds: Key injuries
Get the latest injury news here.
Cubs
- 3B Kris Bryant (wrist) out
- OF Steven Souza (hamstring) out
Reds
- OF Nick Senzel (undisclosed) out
Also see: BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
Cubs at Reds: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:35 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Reds 8, Cubs 4
Moneyline (ML)
The Cubs (-129) are coming off back-to-back losses to the Detroit Tigers, but they still sit atop of the NL Central. Chicago won the first regular-season series vs. Cincinnati 2-1. The one loss was with Friday’s starter — Hendricks— on the mound.
The REDS (+115) enter off a four-game split at the Milwaukee Brewers, winning both games of Thursday’s doubleheader.
Hendricks lost his last two starts at GABP, giving up a combined 17 hits and 13 earned runs. He typically struggles in away games: Henricks has a 1-plus run ERA higher on the road compared to at home.
Additionally, Chicago is ranked 28th in bullpen ERA (5.79 ERA) but is even worse on the road with a 7.33 ERA. Bet the REDS.
New to sports betting? A $100 bet on the Reds returns a profit of $115 if they win.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Since I feel pretty good about our moneyline handicap, let’s bet the REDS -1.5 (+220) alternate run line. Eight of their last 10 games have been decided by two or more runs and the Cubs have gotten obliterated in Hendricks’ last two starts vs. the Reds.
A $50 wager on the Reds -1.5 (+220) on the alternate lines pays a $110 profit if they win by two or more runs.
Over/Under (O/U)
I “LEAN” OVER 9 (-110) because I think the Hendricks start is keeping the total at a beatable number. In division games, Cubs-Reds have a combined 19-15 O/U record, the Over is 5-2-1 in the last 8 meetings and 5-0 in Hendricks’ last 5 road starts.
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