The Milwaukee Bucks (44-27) host the Chicago Bulls (42-29) Tuesday at the Fiserv Forum for an 8 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we look at the Bulls vs. Bucks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Chicago snapped a 3-game losing skid Monday night by storming past the Toronto Raptors at home 113-99, covering as 4-point favorites. The Bulls are 5-13 against the spread (ATS) as road underdogs, but 7-6-1 ATS on zero rest days.
Milwaukee lost 129-119 loss at the Minnesota Timberwolves Saturday, but in the last two weeks the Bucks are 4-2 straight up (SU) and ATS. Milwaukee is 12-20 ATS as home favorites and 10-11 ATS when playing with a rest advantage.
The Bucks are 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS versus the Bulls this season and the total is 0-2 Over/Under (O/U).
Bulls at Bucks odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:08 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Bulls +230 (bet $100 to win $230) | Bucks -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Bulls +6.5 (-105) | Bucks -6.5 (-120)
- Over/Under: 233.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Bulls at Bucks key injuries
Bulls
- PG Lonzo Ball (knee) out
Bucks
- SF Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee) probable
[tipico]
Bulls at Bucks odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Bucks 116, Bulls 114
Money line
PASS because the Bulls (+230) have gotten crushed by elite teams this season and the Bucks (-300) are ranked eighth in non-garbage time net rating, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
For instance, Chicago is 1-11 SU on the road versus teams in the top-10 of efficiency differential with a minus-14.8 non-garbage time net rating (ranked 27th), per CTG. Plus, Milwaukee is 9-1 SU in the last 10 versus Chicago.
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Against the spread
BET the BULLS +6.5 (-105) for 1 unit because their struggles versus tough teams are baked into the line and I’d rather fade the market that’s backing the Bucks -6.5 (-120) to win by at least three possessions.
Two-thirds of the action is on the Bucks, according to Pregame.com, but a slight majority of the cash is on the Bulls. So, apparently, the sharps see value in Chicago while the public is all over Milwaukee.
Also, the Bulls have performed really well on the road in the second of a back-to-back where Chicago is 4-1 SU with a plus-8.3 adjusted net rating (ranked eighth) and plus-9.0 ATS margin (ranked fourth), per CTG.
On the other hand, the Bucks have grossly underperformed at home against a mid-tier team and the Bulls are 14th in adjusted net rating. Milwaukee is just 7-7 SU at home versus mid-tier teams with a minus-1.2 adjusted net rating (ranked 17th) and minus-7.6 ATS margin (ranked 28th), per CTG.
There are basketball-based reasons for backing Chicago as well. The Bucks play a lot of iso-ball through its two elite forwards, push the pace and allow opponents to chuck 3s.
The Bulls have better offensive and defensive efficiency in isolation sets, the best fastbreak offensive efficiency in the NBA and the second-best 3-point shooting percentage.
Finally, my first inclination was to bet the Bucks since they own the Bulls and Chicago has been terrible when it faces good teams. But, typically the most profitable wagers in sports betting are the ones that make you wince.
BET the BULLS +6.5 (-120).
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 233.5 (-110) because both teams play in the Central Division and have a combined 5-19-1 O/U in division games. Also, these teams have a combined 30-35 O/U versus teams with a winning record.
Lastly, the Bulls-Bucks total has been steamed from a 231.5-point opener up to the current number (per Pregame.com) and that’s too much line movement considering the Under has cashed in five of the last six Bulls-Bucks meetings.
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