The No. 18 Miami Hurricanes (8-2, 7-2 ACC) play the No. 21 Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-3, 6-3 Big XII) in the Cheez-It Bowl Tuesday at 5:30 p.m. ET at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Fla. Below, we analyze the Miami-Oklahoma State college football betting odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
Rankings courtesy of the Amway Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Oklahoma State vs. Miami: Betting odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:15 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Miami -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Oklahoma State -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Miami -1 (-110) | Oklahoma State +1 (-110)
- Over/Under: 61.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Oklahoma State vs. Miami: Three things to know
- After getting off a 4-0 start and somewhat flirting with early-season Big XII Championship contention, Oklahoma State lost 41-34 to Texas on Halloween then alternated between wins and losses for the rest of the regular season. The Cowboys ended their season on a high note, bulldozing the Baylor Bears 42-3 as 6-point road favorites Dec. 12.
- When looking at Miami’s overall record, the 2020 campaign is nothing to be disappointed in. The Hurricanes getting rolled 42-17 by Clemson (Oct. 10) and 62-26 by North Carolina in the final game of the season were definitely disappointing for Miami.
- Since Mike Gundy took over the OK State program in 2005, the Cowboys are 9-5 in bowl games and have covered the spread in their last four bowl games. This is Manny Diaz’s second season in charge of the Miami football program and the Hurricanes were shutout 14-0 in last year’s Independence Bowl by Louisiana Tech.
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Oklahoma State vs. Miami: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Oklahoma State 38, Miami 24
Money line (ML)
Miami’s top-two leaders in sacks—DEs Jaelan Phillips (8) and Quincy Roche (4.5)—are skipping the Cheez-It Bowl to prepare for the 2021 NFL Draft. The same goes for Oklahoma State star RB Chuba Hubbard who was a unanimous All-American in 2019 after rushing for 21 touchdowns and 2,094 yards.
I’d argue the losses for the Hurricanes will play a bigger role than Hubbard’s decision to opt-out of OK State’s bowl game. The Cowboys rank 81st in QB sacked rate and that’s because sophomore QB Spencer Sanders holds onto the ball for too long or sometimes he can be excused with a coverage sack. Either way, if the Hurricanes don’t have their elite pass rushers then Sanders can sit back there all day and go through his progressions in peace.
As far as Hubbard is concerned, I led with his 2019 stats because his 2020 stats aren’t all that impressive. Hubbard averaged fewer yards per rush than three other running backs on OK State’s roster with at least 37 attempts. The preview shows and articles still make sure to point out Hubbard has opted-out of OK State’s bowl game because he’s the highest-profile name on either side.
OK State’s offense isn’t dependent on Hubbard whereas Miami’s defense—39th in sack rate, 44th in opponent’s 3rd down conversion percentage and 60th in opponent’s red zone scoring percentage—can not sustain the losses of those pass rushers.
GIMME OKLAHOMA STATE (-105) for 1.5 units.
Against the spread (ATS)
PASS ON THE SPREAD because you only have to spend an extra 5 cents on the dollar for an outright win over fussing with one point.
Over/Under (O/U)
I “LEAN” OVER 61.5 (-110) for only a half-unit because it’s a little high in my opinion; however, the market is hitting the Over and I’d rather follow the money than fade it. According to Pregame.com, over 85% of the money wagered has been on the Over, which has steamed it up from the 59.5-opener to the current price.
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