The Chargers will match up with the Jaguars for the second time this season, with a trip to the divisional round on the line.
After losing to Jacksonville 38-10 the first time around, Los Angeles will have to make adjustments to come away victorious.
Here are four reasons to be optimistic about LA punching its ticket to the next round.
Offensive firepower
Los Angeles may have lost to Jacksonville in Week 3, but recall the circumstances. It was the Chargers’ first complete game of managing Justin Herbert’s rib injury. They lost Joey Bosa, Rashawn Slater, and deep threat Jalen Guyton to long-term injuries mid-game. Keenan Allen did not play due to a Week 1 hamstring injury and Mike Williams had just one catch for 15 yards. Fast forward three and a half months, and things are a much different story. Rookie Jamaree Salyer has stepped in and provided stability at left tackle in Slater’s absence, a luxury not afforded to a Chargers team that used Storm Norton as his replacement in Week 3. Herbert, Allen, and Williams are all healthy. The ten points LA scored against the Jaguars in their first matchup was the lowest point total of the season for the Chargers. With everyone healthy, it should be safe to assume that Los Angeles brings more than that to the table on Saturday.
Defensive hot streak
Since squaring off against Miami, the Chargers have been lights out as a passing defense. Michael Davis has come into his own, shutting down the likes of Tyreek Hill and Courtland Sutton over his last five games. Asante Samuel Jr. has continued his solid sophomore season, while third-year safety Alohi Gilman has grown into a starting role opposite, and sometimes in place of, Derwin James Jr. Over their last three games, the Chargers have given up 160.3 passing yards per game, the seventh-best figure in the league. Their blanket coverage has also contributed to a league-best sack percentage of 14.29% in their last three contests. Jacksonville’s offense has performed all season to the tune of sixth-best in passing DVOA, and Trevor Lawrence racked up 262 yards and three passing touchdowns against the Chargers in Week 3. But that was before LA found their groove, and if they can extend the hot streak into the tournament in Lawrence’s first career playoff game, it bodes well for a Chargers victory.
Teamwide balance
Jacksonville has the edge in overall DVOA, clocking in at 13th, five spots higher than the Chargers. However, the Jaguars are buoyed by an offense that ranks 9th in DVOA, while the defense lags at 26th. For the Chargers, the offense is 19th and the defense is 16th, both more in line with the overall team ranking. At a more granular level, Jacksonville is 6th in offensive passing DVOA but 20th in rushing; the defense is 11th in rushing but 30th in passing. Those season-long trends paint a picture of a streaky team. That bears out when you look at the schedule: Jacksonville has a stretch in which they lost 6 of 7, immediately followed by a stretch in which they won 6 of 7 to end the season. In the playoffs, balance usually reigns supreme: these are the best teams in the league, and they all know how to stop you from doing what you do well. If you can pass but can’t run, or you can stop the run but not the pass, your opponent has an advantage. For LA, that advantage is there.
Championship pedigree
Brandon Staley preached veteran presence this offseason as this team prepared to make a championship run. Kyle Van Noy was signed for his hybrid role, yes, but his leadership as a two-time Super Bowl winner was just as touted by the Chargers. The since-waived Sony Michel was brought in for similar reasons before his lack of effectiveness on the field rendered him less valuable. Sebastian Joseph-Day and Morgan Fox went deep into the playoffs with Staley’s Rams in 2020 and Joseph-Day won a ring last season on the other side of LA. Even holdovers like Keenan Allen have playoff experience that they can lean on to prep younger players heading into this week. Jacksonville, on the other hand, is led by a talented squadron of younger players that don’t come prepackaged with that same experience. Trevor Lawrence and Trevor Etienne are used to playing deep into December and January as national title contenders at Clemson. Still, the NFL playoffs are usually a different animal for all but the most transcendent pros. On Saturday, it’s time for the impact that the Chargers veterans have made off the field to be felt on it.