The Chargers enter the most crucial part of their season on Sunday, needing a win against the Cardinals to stay relevant in the AFC playoff picture.
Here are our keys to victory against Arizona.
Find a fourth-down balance
There’s been a lot of discourse, as always, about Brandon Staley’s fourth-down decision-making. But this time, the conversation has largely been about Staley choosing to kick the ball away instead of the hyper-aggressive go-for-it coach we saw last season. Part of that has been the change in execution across the team: Staley trusts his (marginally) improved defense more and his decimated offense less. The Chargers have struggled to move the chains in short-yardage situations, and their waning confidence in their ability to do so certainly plays a role in the decision-making. But this game profiles as a shootout: neither Arizona nor Los Angeles has a defense worth writing home about. In contests like that, every possession matters, and kicking the ball away when you can score more points seems imprudent. LA must find a balance between trusting their defense against a discordant Cardinals offense and trusting their superstar quarterback to make superstar plays.
Keep Austin Ekeler fresh
I thought Ekeler was at his best last week when he was being spelled, primarily by emerging rookie Isaiah Spiller. Spiller had an up-and-down day, finishing with four carries for 11 yards that all came on one run. But the rookie also flashed chops as a pass protector and receiver, hauling in 2 catches for 11 more yards. Against a poor Cardinals defense, I think it’s a premier opportunity to get Spiller more opportunities. It will also open up more room for Ekeler, who may not have to take on a supermajority of the snaps at running back for the first time in what feels like forever.
Hit a second-half stride
LA has been outscored 29-7 in the second half in the last two games and now ranks 28th in the league in second-half points scored. The Chargers also declined from fifth in Expected Points Added (EPA) per play in the first half to 25th in EPA per play in the second half this season. Something about the execution in the third and fourth quarters has been lacking. Brandon Staley has pointed to execution, while Corey Linsley has chalked it up to “little details,” and Ekeler has called it an “urgency” issue. Whatever the case, the Chargers must find their stride, or at least something resembling more than a limp, in the second half if they want to stay competitive in this one. Despite Arizona’s record, an offense with Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins is liable to explode at any moment.
Get off the field on third down
In their last four games, LA has allowed their opponent to convert on third down over half the time three times after allowing it to occur just once in their first six contests. LA’s allowed third down conversion percentage in the last four games stands at 50.98%, among the worst in the league. It’s a troubling trend, especially since the Chargers are 1-3 in their last four games after starting the season 4-2. Arizona presents a unique challenge on third down that LA has proven to have issues with: the threat of the scramble. Browns QB Jacoby Brissett took a third and 9 20 yards late in the Week 5 game. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes had a 16-yard scramble last week against this team. Kyler Murray has scrambled for 15 or more yards four times this season, and containing him the way LA has been unable to contain others will be a key aspect in getting the defense off the field.
Don’t be the get-right game
This is a matchup of two teams searching for answers. Both Kliff Kingsbury and Brandon Staley likely feel their seats warming up, especially after being named the two destinations legendary coach Sean Payton is keeping his eye on as potential comeback opportunities. Both have injuries they can use as a get-out-of-jail-free card of sorts. For Kingsbury, Arizona has only had their dynamic combination of Murray and DeAndre Hopkins for three games due to a PED suspension for Hopkins and a hamstring issue for Murray. 4 starters for Arizona have already been ruled out for Sunday’s game. In LA, Staley is helming one of the most injured teams in the league for what feels like the umpteenth time for Chargers fans. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams have still barely been on the field at the same time, which has hampered the offense greatly. But on Sunday, somebody has to turn the ship around, at least temporarily. Both locker rooms know the other is vulnerable right now, and it’s up to the Chargers to ensure they’re the ones on the attack.
Produce against the blitz
Vance Joseph loves to blitz and always has. Arizona blitzes the third-most in the league this season, sending extra pressure on 38.2% of their defensive snaps. Usually, that’d be fine – Justin Herbert is great against the blitz, right? Well, not so much this season. After ranking in the top 12 in EPA per dropback against the blitz in his first two seasons, Herbert is fourth-worst this year, better only than Zach Wilson (benched), Baker Mayfield (benched), and Mac Jones (briefly benched). Granted, it’s a small sample size – Herbert faces the blitz less often than all but six QBs. His numbers are probably also affected by lessened mobility because of the rib injury. Regardless, the numbers show that 1) Arizona will blitz a lot, especially missing their top corner, and 2) Herbert has not been good against the blitz this season. If LA wants to get back on the winning track, punishing the Cardinals for sending the heat is the first step.