The Chargers travel to San Francisco for a chance to advance to 6-3 on the season against a 49ers team that is much better than their record suggests.
With the primetime matchup looming, here are six keys to victory.
Make Jimmy Garoppolo beat you
With Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle on the opposing offense, it’s easy to write Sunday’s matchup off as a shootout. But San Francisco has scored 24 or more points in just half of their games this season, largely because of the limitations Garoppolo places upon the 49ers’ offense. Both times Garoppolo has gone over 275 passing yards this season, the 49ers have lost: Week 6 against Atlanta and Week 7 against Kansas City. Kyle Shanahan wants to place the ball in his quarterback’s hands as little as possible: the 49ers are 23rd in pass attempts per game this season. Forcing the 49ers into game states where Garoppolo is asked to make plays will be the first step in obtaining a victory on Sunday night.
Get Justin Herbert moving
Even if Trey Pipkins can play on Sunday, it’s likely that he’ll look more like the version we saw against Seattle when he struggled to move as fluidly as normal. Pipkins looked healthy against Atlanta until he reaggravated his MCL injury. If he can’t play, practice squad tackle Foster Sarell has been taking first-team reps in practice over the much-maligned Storm Norton. All three of those options spell disaster for the Chargers, who have to find some way to deal with Nick Bosa rushing off the right side. Herbert looked as healthy as ever last week against the Falcons, and the Chargers used that to their advantage by incorporating him more into the running game. They’ll need to continue that on Sunday by moving the pocket and adding extra chip blockers that can leak out on routes as safety valves.
Carry second-quarter momentum
The Chargers are among the best-scoring teams in the league in the second quarter, averaging 12.5 points per game. That’s all well and good, except that San Francisco’s defense is the best at preventing teams from scoring in the second quarter at just 3.8 per game. However, where the 49ers have faltered all season is in the third quarter, where the defense is 27th in points allowed (6.1) and the offense is 29th in points scored (2.5). If LA can at least get some sort of rhythm going in the second quarter to carry that positive energy into the halftime locker room, the opportunity should be there for them to capitalize early in the second half.
Find Austin Ekeler touches
San Francisco is the best rushing defense in the league, giving up just 86.6 yards per game. The Chargers already only rush for 89.1 yards per game, the fifth-worst figure. In short, running Ekeler, or anyone else for that matter is likely not going to work. However, eliminating him from the game plan is also not an option, considering that Ekeler is the last man standing next to Herbert in this offense. I’d like to see Joe Lombardi utilize the running back as a legit passing option in this game – believe it or not, Ekeler is probably the fastest player on the team right now with a 4.43 40-yard dash. Let him run a bit more vertically, or just use him as the safety valve I talked about earlier, but one way or another, he needs to get his touches and get into a rhythm if LA is going to pull this one out.
Embrace creativity
Speaking of Ekeler, I think Joe Lombardi has a real opportunity to use the running back as a more integral part of the passing game. I mentioned Ekeler’s speed, and I think it’d be prudent to get that speed moving up the field to at least simulate the deep passing game how it would typically function with someone like Jalen Guyton on the field. Lombardi said they don’t have the personnel to push the ball down the field, but Ekeler presents a way for them to hack together a solution instead of throwing their hands up and running Stick again. Speaking of which: this is a physical, punishing 49ers defense. They’re going to be sitting on those short routes like nothing the Chargers have seen this season, and that’s accounting for the fact that every team is already sitting on those short routes. Lombardi needs to dial up a double move, a deep shot out of a quick game look, and catch the San Francisco defense off guard as they creep up to lay the boom. If he doesn’t, it’s going to lead to a lot of frustrating deflections and three-and-outs.
Defensive execution
The Chargers have struggled with the big play this season: it seems like any rushing attempt is liable to go for 20, 30, maybe 40 yards, and the pass defense generally holds together until they give up one backbreaking touchdown a game. San Francisco has generated four offensive touchdowns of more than 30 yards this season, so their ability to hit the big play is certainly there. Three of those have been passing touchdowns, leaving the onus on Asante Samuel Jr. and Michael Davis to step up and prevent the 49ers from creating another one. However, just because the 49ers haven’t generated as many big running plays doesn’t mean the Chargers won’t give one up: LA has been lackluster at fitting the run all season, primarily because of a lack of gap discipline from second-level defenders and loss of contain by edge rushers. Losing Austin Johnson for the season will not help on the interior either. As McCaffrey works his way into a bigger role on the San Francisco offense, it wouldn’t be a shock to see him break one on Sunday night. But to come away victorious, the Chargers need to limit those plays as much as possible.