The Chargers finish off their regular season on the road against the Broncos.
Here is what Los Angeles must do to pick up its fifth-straight victory.
Move the ball early
The Chargers have struggled to move the ball on early downs, as evidenced by their league-leading 15.2 third downs per game. They convert at a roughly 43% clip amongst the better teams in the league, but a large part of that is because of the playmaking abilities of quarterback Justin Herbert. With LA’s playoff seed potentially locked in before kickoff, however, it remains to be seen whether or not Herbert, or most of the other starters, will play on Sunday. If they don’t, those 15 third downs a game will be handed to Chase Daniel, who has shown in limited action this season that he’s not the same chain-mover as QB1. That means LA will need to find a way to get into shorter third downs or, better yet, move the chains on first or second down.
Lean on the run game
That leads into this next point rather nicely. Whether it’s primarily going to be Austin Ekeler, Joshua Kelley, Isaiah Spiller, or even Larry Rountree III, the Chargers should make toting the rock a priority against Denver. The reasons for this are twofold: one, LA needs to continue to develop their identity on the ground heading into the playoffs to show opponents more balanced looks. Two, the Broncos have given up fifteen touchdowns to running backs this season, one of the highest figures in the league. Denver is middle of the pack as a per carry rush defense, allowing 4.3 yards a rush, but the blueprint is there for an effective day on the ground. Even if it doesn’t result in a career day for anyone, getting a player like Kelley into the endzone once or twice could be enough to raise his confidence for the playoffs, where he will still have an important role as Austin Ekeler’s foil.
Bring the heat
Denver’s offensive line has given up 61 sacks this season, good for 3.8 per game, which is the most in the NFL. They will also be without starting guard Dalton Risner, who was placed on injured reserve this week. That’s contributed to the struggles of quarterback Russell Wilson, who has only recently started to get on the move to avoid the impending pressure as the coaching regime has turned over. Over the last three games, LA has logged 4.7 sacks per game, second-best in the league over that timeframe. Those numbers should only increase as Joey Bosa gets closer to full health: regardless of Bengals-Ravens outcome, I’d expect Bosa to play throughout the game to get him back up to speed. He needs the reps to shake the rust off from groin surgery, and last week’s Rams contest was slightly marred by food poisoning. With a chance to feast against Denver’s ragtag offensive line, Bosa could find his groove just in time for the playoffs.
Control the line of scrimmage
Denver has rushed for at least 100 yards in each of its last four games despite injuries across the offensive line and Latavius Murray serving as their primary running back. The Chargers, meanwhile, have given up at least 100 yards rushing in 11 of their 16 games thus far. Last week was a particularly rough outing, as Cam Akers shredded LA for 6.5 yards a carry. As the defense has improved over the last few weeks, the defensive line has largely been able to stuff the run at a fairly reasonable rate, but last week was a return to the early season of consistent struggles up front. Denver’s rushing success has mirrored their improvements on offense, with 20+ points in three of their last four outings. Stopping them and forcing Russell Wilson to be the one to win the game will be paramount.
Lock up Jerry Jeudy
Jeudy has been Wilson’s go-to receiver as the coaching has changed from Nathaniel Hackett to interim Jerry Rosburg. The third-year receiver has at least six catches in four consecutive contests and has found a groove as Courtland Sutton has been up and down and KJ Hamler has missed time. With the ascendant Michael Davis likely tasked with Sutton on the outside if the starters play for LA, that leaves Asante Samuel Jr. and Bryce Callahan as the primary options to track Jeudy. Both have been solid players all season, and their efforts helped hold Jeudy to 3 catches for 54 yards the first time these teams matched up. But if the starters don’t go, it’ll likely be rookie Ja’Sir Taylor that draws the assignment on Jeudy. How he responds, even with Jeudy dealing with a minor ankle injury, could be the difference.
Keep everyone healthy
This is the goal in every game, really, but it’s especially important this week with one eye on the pending playoff schedule. The Chargers have missed at least one game from Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Rashawn Slater, Joey Bosa, and Derwin James this season and have dealt with Justin Herbert playing in a severely limited fashion at times. They’re finally beginning to hit a stride health-wise, with only fullback Zander Horvath on the injury report leading into Sunday and reports that Slater may be close to returning surfacing. It’s of vital importance that they do all they can to ensure that remains the case going into Wild Card Weekend. If the starters have to play, I’d expect them to do so somewhat conservatively.