The Chargers may have beaten the Dolphins on Sunday night, but the results around the rest of the league combined to keep Los Angeles one spot outside the AFC playoff picture.
They now face another tough test in the AFC South-leading Titans.
Here are four reasons to be concerned about the Bolts’ conservation of momentum.
Derrick Henry
No flowery headline here. Henry is approaching the traditional progression cliff for the running back position, but not even returning from a 2021 foot injury has stopped the King’s march to 1,200 yards through 13 games this season. And say it with me: the Chargers’ run defense is bad! Los Angeles looked better against the Dolphins last week thanks to standout games from Kyle Van Noy and Morgan Fox, but Miami is also one of the worst running teams in the league. Tennessee is one of the best. The Chargers are 4-1 when they hold teams under 150 rushing yards but just 3-5 when they don’t. Henry’s performances against run defenses of a similar caliber are less than inspiring for LA, namely a 219-yard romp against the Texans in Week 8. Houston is 27th in run defense DVOA; Los Angeles is 25th.
Third quarter slumps
I joked last week that the Chargers coaches aren’t allowed to communicate with the team during the entire third quarter because it sure seems like they aren’t. LA averages 2.8 points coming out of the halftime locker room while allowing 6.4, numbers which are both in the bottom five of the NFL. This has led to countless scrambles to recover games that seemed to be well out of hand in the Chargers’ favor, including last week when LA felt like they had to have points on a fourth-quarter field goal drive that put them ahead 23-14 after allowing a 60-yard Tyreek Hill reception in the third quarter. With the way Henry’s game builds over time, the Chargers cannot afford to also come out flat after the break because Tennessee will run them over.
Red zone struggles
Like the third-quarter issues, Sunday’s contest with Miami exposed a flaw in LA’s offense that has gone largely under the radar for most of the season: this team is awful in the red zone. After ranking 5th in red zone touchdown percentage last year, the Chargers are 27th through 14 weeks this season, reaching the end zone on just 47.9% of their chances inside the 20. Against Miami, they scored touchdowns just twice in six chances. There are many reasons for this: offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi has said they need to “run the ball better, call better plays, and execute better.” The first step in rehabilitation is admitting you have a problem, Joe. Good on you! He’s right, though: LA has been terrible in short-yardage running situations all season, primarily because of a failed Sony Michel experiment and ill-timed Joshua Kelley injury. Lombardi’s plays rarely ask Justin Herbert to throw the ball to the end zone, instead relying on a cadre of slow receivers to catch and run for touchdowns like ill-fated horror movie characters. Even when those plays work, sometimes the Chargers can’t capitalize, like last week when DeAndre Carter stumbled on a fourth-and-goal play that should have been an easy touchdown. Field goals don’t win championships, and LA needs to fix their red zone issues. But against a defensive line that normally features Jeffery Simmons and Denico Autry, this probably isn’t the week to get that right.
Time loop
This has been a classic Titans season from the jump. We write them off as genuine AFC contenders and speculate if this is the year they drop the division belt. (Remember when the Matt Ryan Colts were getting Super Bowl buzz? Good times.) They lose to the Bills 41-7 on national TV to drop to 0-2, and we all foam at the mouth over the Jaguars. Tennessee wins 7 of their next 8, losing only to the Chiefs in overtime on Sunday Night Football despite starting Malik Willis at QB. We start to ask if maybe the Titans are contenders after all. They lose three straight games to two playoff teams and a 4-7 Jacksonville squad in a game that results from that way every season. I’ve seen this movie before, and what happens next is that while the rest of the world forgets about them again, Tennessee wins three of their last four and finishes 10-7 for their third consecutive 10+ win season. They make the playoffs and lose their first game, so we can talk about Indianapolis or Jacksonville all off-season. The Titans are inevitable, as are the Chargers, albeit in a much different, more cursed way. LA was 8-5 at this point last season, then dropped 3 of their last 4 to finish 9-8 and miss the playoffs. Whether or not the Chargers are constitutionally a different team than last season will be the difference on Sunday because these are the same old Titans.