The Chargers will likely know by kickoff on Sunday whether they’ve secured the fifth seed in the AFC playoffs.
If they do, Los Angeles will likely rest its starters and attempt to get healthier for the Wild Card round. If they don’t, the Chargers can still win and jump up a spot, making Sunday’s game against Denver much more valuable.
Here are some reasons to be worried about LA’s chances.
Resting starters
If the Bengals beat the Ravens in the early window, the Chargers simply won’t have anything to play for on Sunday. Given Brandon Staley’s rest tendencies in the preseason, that’d likely mean that nearly every veteran starter will sit in favor of younger depth players. The exception to this might be Joey Bosa, who’s still working his way back from groin surgery and food poisoning. Denver has been bad this season, there’s no doubt about that. But NFL starters are usually starters for a reason, no matter what team they’re on, and trotting out Chase Daniel and a ragtag group of receivers against this vaunted Broncos secondary seems like a recipe for disaster from a single-game perspective.
Something to prove
People often say that teams eliminated from the playoffs have nothing to play for, but that’s not true. It’s especially not true for the Broncos, whose players will be out to prove to ownership and general manager George Paton that they’re worth keeping around for the new coaching regime following the firing of Nathaniel Hackett. For pending free agents, this is their last audition for Denver or a potential new team. Players on the fringes have to prove they’re not replaceable. Everyone is fighting to keep their NFL career afloat. For the Chargers, on the other hand, there’s less at stake. Their season doesn’t end when the final whistle blows on Sunday. Nobody’s jobs are at risk depending solely on the outcome of this game. Those different states of being could result in a flat game from LA as they look to cruise into the playoffs, while Denver’s players look to put out good tape against a playoff team.
Offensive improvement
Denver’s offense has improved dramatically over the last four games, scoring 28, 24, 14, and 24 points, which looks more like the statline of an average offense than a historically awful one. In all four of these contests, the Broncos have rushed for at least 100 yards. LA, meanwhile, has allowed teams to rush for at least 100 yards in 11 of their 16 games, which seems to suggest that Denver can continue their streak on Sunday. The first time these teams met, the Chargers needed overtime to win with only 19 points because the Broncos could only muster 16. Of course, LA also lacked some offensive talent because of early-season injuries. But with this Denver team averaging 22.5 points per game over their last 4, the Chargers will have to keep pace, likely to the tune of 31-ish points as they did last week versus the Rams.
Third down defense
Denver is the second-best team in the league at preventing third down conversions, giving up a first down just 33.01% of the time. The only team better this season has been Washington. The Chargers, meanwhile, love to work themselves into difficult third-down situations and ask Justin Herbert to bail them out. LA leads the league in third down conversions per game with 6.6 on a similarly league-leading 15.2 chances per game this season, a conversion rate of 43.21%, 8th best in the NFL. But again, remember that Herbert may not play in this one depending on earlier outcomes. If that’s the case, can you trust Chase Daniel to make the same plays to keep LA’s conversion percentage hovering around that 43% mark?