Celtics almost certain to get 2020 No. 14 pick after Grizzlies loss

The Boston Celtics have a 97.6 % chance of getting the Memphis Grizzlies’ 2020 first-round pick after their loss to the Portland Trail Blazers.

The Boston Celtics are (almost certainly) getting another lottery pick.

After the Memphis Grizzlies lost their last shot at getting into the 2020 NBA Playoffs by losing the first of two potential play-in games, they’ll now deliver either a 2020 lottery pick at No. 14 overall, or whatever pick they end up with in 2021, no matter where it ends up.

Confused? If so, it’s understandable, as there’s a lot of NBA minutiae involved.

To start with, the Grizzlies owe Boston a draft pick from a previous trade, protected 1-6 this season, and if it fails to convey by falling 1-6, it will convey unprotected the following season.

Memphis had been in the eighth seed until the Portland Trail Blazers, Phoenix Suns and San Antonio Spurs caught up to and in Portland’s case passed them in the Disney restart, triggering the play-in game.

The play-in game was set so that whichever team held the eighth seed at the end of the season would have to be defeated by whatever team was in ninth place in either conference — in this case, it was only needed in the West — twice to lose their spot in the postseason.

Memphis fell to ninth place, and today, they lost to the Blazers in a squeaker.

Now, due to the agreement made by the league and the National Basketball Players Association (NBPA), there will be one of two outcomes: a 97.6 % chance at the Grizzlies drawing the No. 14 pick, or a 2.4 % chance they draw a top-four pick.

It cannot land anywhere else, and if it does beat the odds, then whatever pick Memphis draws next draft lottery — or higher — Boston gets in 2021.

While the Grizzlies “winning” the lottery would deprive the Celtics of an asset to use in the 2020 NBA Draft, the relatively low degree of anticipated star power would make even a pick just outside the lottery likely more valuable than the No. 14 pick the Celtics will otherwise be getting.

Add in that Boston will have as many as four total picks in this year’s draft without trading up or out of this draft with only two or three roster spots at very most opening up, and you can begin to see why the 2021 option is preferable.

But the odds are very high the Celtics will draft at Nos. 14, 26 (their own) and 30 (via a selection owed them by the Milwaukee Bucks) — unless they package picks, again, to move up or out of this draft.

With the 2020 NBA Draft Lottery set to take place on August 20th, 2020, we won’t have to wait long to find out what the basketball gods have in store for the Celtics.

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