Where there’s breakout seasons, there’s also the inevitable regression backwards in the ensuing season for some.
CBS Sports feels like a pair of the Iowa Hawkeyes‘ Big Ten West opponents will fall into that second category in 2023. Tom Fornelli of CBS Sports included both Purdue Boilermakers and Illinois among his five breakout Power 5 programs that are likely to take a step backwards in 2023.
Of course, Purdue is the reigning Big Ten West champion by virtue of their 31-24 win in Champaign last season over Illinois. It will be a year of great change for the Boilermakers, though.
Aidan O’Connell finished second in the Big Ten in passing yards, racking up 3,490 through the air to go along with his 22 touchdown passes for Purdue. Now, he’s off to the Las Vegas Raiders as a fourth-round selection in the 2023 NFL draft.
Purdue has a new head football coach, too. Jeff Brohm left to take over his alma mater, Louisville. Interestingly enough for this article, Purdue hired Illinois defensive coordinator Ryan Walters as his replacement.
In addition to the new head coach and new staff, Fornelli points out an interesting statistic that might not bode well for 2023.
For instance, despite finishing 8-6, Purdue allowed more points than it scored last year. It was one of only two teams in the country last season to win at least eight games and finish with a negative point differential. The other was Coastal Carolina, which went 9-4 despite being outscored 414-378.
Last season Purdue went 5-2 in one-score games. Its eight wins came by an average of 13.13 points per game. Its six losses came by -19.33 points per game. The 63-7 loss to LSU in the Citrus Bowl skews that heavily, but after two close losses to Penn State and Syracuse in September, all of Purdue’s last four losses came by at least two scores. That’s typically not a great sign. Factor in a new coaching staff, key departures, and a schedule that includes Ohio State and Michigan, and there’s a reason sportsbooks have Purdue’s win total at five. – Fornelli, CBS Sports.
Though Iowa didn’t capture the West when it had the opportunity in its regular season finale versus Nebraska, the Hawkeyes did manage to comfortably beat that aforementioned 2022 Purdue team.
In fact, it was arguably one of the better performances of last season for Iowa. The Hawkeyes handled Purdue, 24-3, as tight end Sam LaPorta, wide receiver Nico Ragaini and running back Kaleb Johnson each had touchdowns.
There were no touchdowns to be had for Iowa last season against Illinois, however. That was one of the season’s biggest stinkers as the Hawkeyes lost, 9-6, in an absolute eyesore for those that enjoy, you know, offense.
For all the concerns that Iowa had offensively last season, Illinois actually had their own issues as well. Fornelli isn’t convinced that side of the football will be fixed in 2023.
The other concern is the offense. Illinois won eight games last season despite finishing in the bottom half of the Power Five in many key statistical categories, and its workhorse running back Chase Brown is in the NFL, too. If the defense takes a slight step back (which isn’t insane given the losses and how incredible it was last year) and the offense doesn’t make up for it, this team will find it more challenging to win as many games. The good news for any Illini fan reading this is that the days of three-win seasons are probably behind you under coach Bret Bielema. But another eight-win season in 2023? I’m not so sure. – Fornelli, CBS Sports.
As Fornelli noted, Illinois lost a lot of talent. Cornerback Devon Witherspoon was drafted No. 5 overall by the Seattle Seahawks, Jartavius Martin by Washington Commanders with the No. 47 selection and Sydney Brown by the Philadelphia Eagles with the No. 66 draft pick.
Four other Illini were post-draft signings: defensive tackle Calvin Avery to the Minnesota Vikings, linebacker Isaac Darkangelo to the Detroit Lions, defensive back Kendall Smith to the Commanders and defensive tackle Jamal Woods to the Indianapolis Colts.
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