Mmmmmmmm, samples
How much of a sample size do you really need to know whether or not a college football team is good?
More to the point, how many games will the College Football Playoff panel of judges really need to see to know whether or not a team is worthy of the four-team tournament?
I know, I’m not supposed to violate the first two rules of Fight Club by talking about Fight Club, but it’s true. On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.
If a college football team plays a 12-game regular season, it’s going to have more chances to lose, more chances for injury, more wear and tear, and more shots at not playing well on a random off day than a team that plays fewer games.
However, will the Big Ten be penalized by the CFP for playing an eight game season with a championship, and will the Pac-12 be all but disqualified for a seven-game regular season with a title game?
Nah.
In most seasons, every Power Five program has one tough non-conference game, a few cupcakes, and then a regular season. The Big Ten and Pac-12 each played a nine-game conference season last year – do those one or two extra games really matter?
Does it really make a difference that Clemson has a win in the column after playing The Citadel? If Texas goes 11-0 with a Big 12 championship, does it get an extra cookie because it whacked UTEP?
Expect the unwritten rules of the College Football Playoff to apply this year more than ever. Go unbeaten and win your Power Five conference championship, and you’re getting in. That goes for the Big Ten, the Pac-12, and it even goes for a Big 12 that’s been so miserable that it barely deserves to watch this year’s CFP, much less have a spot in it.
In this of all seasons, the College Football Playoff committee isn’t going to get too funky.
In its dream world, there are unbeaten conference champs in the ACC, Big Ten, and SEC, the Pac-12 and Big 12 eat themselves up, and there’s an obvious one-loss ACC, Big Ten, or SEC team that of course deserves the No. 4 spot.
With all of that said, does a 9-0 Big Ten champ get in? Absolutely, no questions asked, book the ticket. 8-1, though … we need to talk.
That goes extra for the Pac-12. An 8-0 Pac-12 champion is almost certainly going to be in, but 7-1 … probably not.
On the flip side, a 10-1 SEC champion and an 11-1 ACC champ are almost certainly stone-cold locks.
The CFP’s job is to take the bodies of work from all the teams playing college football and come up with the four best teams.
Power Five programs, win your conference title, don’t lose any games, and you make the CFP’s job easy.