When I started this “Buckeyes on the Bubble” series, I said that Ohio State’s Women’s Basketball team probably needed to finish 3-3 to get into the NCAA Tournament, and 4-2 to feel safe about it.
Well, since that article, the Buckeyes went on a 3-0 run, including a huge road win over a ranked Indiana team. Ohio State’s last two opponents were also ranked teams. The Buckeyes barely fell to a solid (but slumping) Rutgers team on the road, and they were clearly beaten by a very strong Northwestern team in Columbus on Tuesday.
So now that leaves Ohio State at 3-2 since we set the initial benchmark, with an important road matchup against Purdue coming up on Saturday. It’s far from a must-win, but the Buckeyes will feel far safer about getting into the tournament with a win.
There’s plenty of good news for Ohio State. Dorka Juhasz is playing like a star, and she always gets help from someone–whether it’s Braxtin Miller, Jacy Sheldon, or others. The Buckeyes will need support around Juhasz to make a deep run in Match.
After the game against Purdue is the Big Ten Tournament. Ohio State can end up anywhere from the No. 4 through No. 7 seed in the tournament (though getting the No. 7 seed would require incredibly unlikely circumstances). Getting the No. 4 seed would be huge, as it would earn byes through the first two rounds. However, that would require Indiana losing its last two Big Ten games.
Assuming the Buckeyes get the No. 5 seed, they will have a risky second-round game on Thrusday against either Wisconsin, Illinois, or Penn State. That game would be high-risk low-reward, as a loss would hurt their bubble standing. However, a win in that game means there shouldn’t be any resume-bursting opponents left from the quarterfinal onwards, so Ohio State should feel safe if it reaches that point.
The Buckeyes are still on the bubble, and they likely won’t be a tournament “lock” without reaching the Big Ten semifinals. But win the next two games, and Ohio State is looking at an NCAA Tournament berth.