Category: The All-22

One voter’s 2023 AP First-Team All-Pro ballot

If you’ve ever wanted to see an official First-Team All-Pro ballot, we have you covered.

There are moments in your career where you think to yourself… “Yeah, this is a moment to remember.” Two years ago, when the Associated Press asked me to be one of the analysts responsible for voting for the First- and Second-Team All-Pro teams, as well as NFL Most Valuable Player and all other individual awards, that was certainly such a moment for me.

So, this is my second year of voting, and I wanted to share my first-team ballot with our readers. It’s an honor I take incredibly seriously, and this process involves a ton of advanced metrics, tape study, and reflections from a season of diving into both.

Some of these votes were easy; some were incredibly difficult. But it will give you a bit of insight into what happens with an All-Pro vote.

Aaron Jones and Green Bay’s run game could decide who wins Packers-Cowboys

With Jordan Love and Dak Prescott, the Packers-Cowboys wild-card game is dead even from a QB perspective. RB Aaron Jones could make the difference.

From a quarterback perspective, Sunday’s wild-card matchup between the Green Bay Packers and the Dallas Cowboys is as evenly-matched as it gets.

Let’s start with Jordan Love, who’s been among the NFL’s best quarterbacks in the second half of the season. Since Week 9, he’s completed 237 of 345 passes (68.7%) for 2,666 yards (7.7 yards per attempt), 21 touchdowns, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 108.2. These are wildly impressive numbers for a first-year starter with a highly aggressive mindset – in that time, Love has completed a league-high 23 passes of 20 or more air yards for 724 yards, seven touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 126.4.

Under pressure, which Love will see from the Cowboys, he’s also been outstanding, with 42 completions in 92 attempts under pressure for 742 yards, seven touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 100.9. At this point, there isn’t much you can do to fluster Love, and the extent to which head coach Matt LaFleur has handed the offense over to his young quarterback tells you all you need to know about his development. 

Here’s the issue for the Packers – we have a situation in which Dak Prescott is saying, “Everything you can do, I can do… perhaps better.” In that same period since Week 9, Prescott has completed 254 of 370 passes (68.6%) for 2,882 yards (7.8 yards per attempt), 26 touchdowns, four interceptions, and a passer rating of 110.7. And yes, Love does have the league lead in deep completions, but Prescott it tied with him – 23 completions in 49 attempts for 741 yards, five touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 127.3. Under pressure, Prescott has completed 62 of 103 passes for 864 yards, five touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 99.3. 

So, we’re splitting hairs. The advantage would seem to be in Prescott’s direction because of something neither quarterback can control. Dallas’ defense has been outstanding all season long, though they’ve dropped a bit in Pass Defense DVOA since Week 10 – eighth in the first half of the season, and 13th in the second. However, and as all Packers fans are aware, there are issues all over Joe Barry’s defense. Green Bay ranked 22nd in Pass Defense DVOA in the first half of the season; they’ve dropped to 27th since. 

The quarterbacks are as even as you can get. That’s not the problem for the Packers. The problem for the Packers is the same problem they’ve had all season. It’ll be up to Barry and his staff to close the gap with a quickness.

Let’s now assume that Joe Barry isn’t going to close the gap with a quickness, and move on to how the Packers can gain an advantage elsewhere. And that advantage could easily be gleaned in the run game cultivated by head coach Matt LaFleur.

Over the last three weeks, running back Aaron Jones has 63 carries for a league-high 359 yards, 5.7 yards per carry, and four runs of 15 or more yards. Only James Conner of the Arizona Cardinals has more (five), and Conner got to face the Eagles’ and Seahawks’ run defenses over the last two games. The 14-yard run against the Bears last week was a great example of how the Packers get Jones going.

They motioned tight end Josiah Deguara from right to left, and tight end Tucker Kraft moved from the right side of the formation to deal the left inside edge against linebacker T.J. Edwards. Left tackle Rasheed Walker kicked up to take linebacker Tremaine Edmunds (taking him about 20 yards upfield before depositing Edmunds on his butt), and Deguara took out safety Jaquan Bricker. Meanwhile, receiver Romeo Doubs was busy keeping cornerback Tyrique Stevenson out of the play. The Packers are on point with their blocking concepts for such a young team on that side of the ball. 

This approach could work against the Cowboys, who run a ton of big nickel and dime defense with a stunt-heavy front four. Defensive tackle Johnathan Hankins, who returned last week from the high ankle sprain he suffered in Week 14 against the Philadelphia Eagles, With Hankins on the field this season, the Cowboys have allowed 4.2 yards per attempt, and 2.2 yards after contact per attempt. Without Hankins, Dallas has allowed 4.9 yards per attempt, and 2.7 yards after contact per attempt. On-off splits don’t take all factors into account, but this one’s pretty simple, and the tape backs it up.

“He’s been toting that rock,” Hankins said this week of Jones. “He’s fast. He can run through blocks. All in all, he’s a great running back. They have a good combination of running backs, a great scheme. They’ve been doing everything they’ve needed to do to get where they’re at. It’s up to us to go out there and stop the run.”

“Hank don’t move,” Dallas edge demon Micah Parsons said this week of the big man in the middle. “He’s a crucial piece to this defense. It’s real crucial to have Hank back – especially with how good their gap schemes and pullers are – to get him back in this lineup and get ready for Sunday.”

As for LaFleur, he couldn’t be happier that he has Aaron Jones on his roster, and he probably understands just how crucial Jones could be to his advancement in the postseason.

“He’s a guy that tilts the field in your favor,” Lafleur said of Jones after the Bears game. “He’s so dynamic, so explosive. Take all his ability as a football player out of it. He means so much to this locker room by his actions, by what he says and what he does on a daily basis. He’s a real leader in this locker room. Real leader for our football team. He inspires everybody and comes to work each and every day with a great attitude. I can’t say enough great things about him. I’ve said it a million times about the kind of person he is. 

“You cannot have enough Aaron Jones[es] on your football team.”

The Packers have one Aaron Jones, and they’d better deploy him generously.

In this week’s “Xs and Os with Greg Cosell and Doug Farrar,” the guys dive deeper into the importance of Green Bay’s run game against the Cowboys.

You can watch this week’s “Xs and Os,” previewing every game in the wild-card slate, right here:

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You can also listen and subscribe to the “Xs and Os” podcast on Spotify…

…and on Apple Podcasts.

Aaron Jones and Green Bay’s run game could decide who wins Packers-Cowboys

With Jordan Love and Dak Prescott, the Packers-Cowboys wild-card game is dead even from a QB perspective. RB Aaron Jones could make the difference.

From a quarterback perspective, Sunday’s wild-card matchup between the Green Bay Packers and the Dallas Cowboys is as evenly-matched as it gets.

Let’s start with Jordan Love, who’s been among the NFL’s best quarterbacks in the second half of the season. Since Week 9, he’s completed 237 of 345 passes (68.7%) for 2,666 yards (7.7 yards per attempt), 21 touchdowns, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 108.2. These are wildly impressive numbers for a first-year starter with a highly aggressive mindset – in that time, Love has completed a league-high 23 passes of 20 or more air yards for 724 yards, seven touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 126.4.

Under pressure, which Love will see from the Cowboys, he’s also been outstanding, with 42 completions in 92 attempts under pressure for 742 yards, seven touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 100.9. At this point, there isn’t much you can do to fluster Love, and the extent to which head coach Matt LaFleur has handed the offense over to his young quarterback tells you all you need to know about his development. 

Here’s the issue for the Packers – we have a situation in which Dak Prescott is saying, “Everything you can do, I can do… perhaps better.” In that same period since Week 9, Prescott has completed 254 of 370 passes (68.6%) for 2,882 yards (7.8 yards per attempt), 26 touchdowns, four interceptions, and a passer rating of 110.7. And yes, Love does have the league lead in deep completions, but Prescott it tied with him – 23 completions in 49 attempts for 741 yards, five touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 127.3. Under pressure, Prescott has completed 62 of 103 passes for 864 yards, five touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 99.3. 

So, we’re splitting hairs. The advantage would seem to be in Prescott’s direction because of something neither quarterback can control. Dallas’ defense has been outstanding all season long, though they’ve dropped a bit in Pass Defense DVOA since Week 10 – eighth in the first half of the season, and 13th in the second. However, and as all Packers fans are aware, there are issues all over Joe Barry’s defense. Green Bay ranked 22nd in Pass Defense DVOA in the first half of the season; they’ve dropped to 27th since. 

The quarterbacks are as even as you can get. That’s not the problem for the Packers. The problem for the Packers is the same problem they’ve had all season. It’ll be up to Barry and his staff to close the gap with a quickness.

Let’s now assume that Joe Barry isn’t going to close the gap with a quickness, and move on to how the Packers can gain an advantage elsewhere. And that advantage could easily be gleaned in the run game cultivated by head coach Matt LaFleur.

Over the last three weeks, running back Aaron Jones has 63 carries for a league-high 359 yards, 5.7 yards per carry, and four runs of 15 or more yards. Only James Conner of the Arizona Cardinals has more (five), and Conner got to face the Eagles’ and Seahawks’ run defenses over the last two games. The 14-yard run against the Bears last week was a great example of how the Packers get Jones going.

They motioned tight end Josiah Deguara from right to left, and tight end Tucker Kraft moved from the right side of the formation to deal the left inside edge against linebacker T.J. Edwards. Left tackle Rasheed Walker kicked up to take linebacker Tremaine Edmunds (taking him about 20 yards upfield before depositing Edmunds on his butt), and Deguara took out safety Jaquan Bricker. Meanwhile, receiver Romeo Doubs was busy keeping cornerback Tyrique Stevenson out of the play. The Packers are on point with their blocking concepts for such a young team on that side of the ball. 

This approach could work against the Cowboys, who run a ton of big nickel and dime defense with a stunt-heavy front four. Defensive tackle Johnathan Hankins, who returned last week from the high ankle sprain he suffered in Week 14 against the Philadelphia Eagles, With Hankins on the field this season, the Cowboys have allowed 4.2 yards per attempt, and 2.2 yards after contact per attempt. Without Hankins, Dallas has allowed 4.9 yards per attempt, and 2.7 yards after contact per attempt. On-off splits don’t take all factors into account, but this one’s pretty simple, and the tape backs it up.

“He’s been toting that rock,” Hankins said this week of Jones. “He’s fast. He can run through blocks. All in all, he’s a great running back. They have a good combination of running backs, a great scheme. They’ve been doing everything they’ve needed to do to get where they’re at. It’s up to us to go out there and stop the run.”

“Hank don’t move,” Dallas edge demon Micah Parsons said this week of the big man in the middle. “He’s a crucial piece to this defense. It’s real crucial to have Hank back – especially with how good their gap schemes and pullers are – to get him back in this lineup and get ready for Sunday.”

As for LaFleur, he couldn’t be happier that he has Aaron Jones on his roster, and he probably understands just how crucial Jones could be to his advancement in the postseason.

“He’s a guy that tilts the field in your favor,” Lafleur said of Jones after the Bears game. “He’s so dynamic, so explosive. Take all his ability as a football player out of it. He means so much to this locker room by his actions, by what he says and what he does on a daily basis. He’s a real leader in this locker room. Real leader for our football team. He inspires everybody and comes to work each and every day with a great attitude. I can’t say enough great things about him. I’ve said it a million times about the kind of person he is. 

“You cannot have enough Aaron Jones[es] on your football team.”

The Packers have one Aaron Jones, and they’d better deploy him generously.

In this week’s “Xs and Os with Greg Cosell and Doug Farrar,” the guys dive deeper into the importance of Green Bay’s run game against the Cowboys.

You can watch this week’s “Xs and Os,” previewing every game in the wild-card slate, right here:

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You can also listen and subscribe to the “Xs and Os” podcast on Spotify…

…and on Apple Podcasts.

How Sean McVay and the Rams have changed their run game for the better

Sean McVay and the Los Angeles Rams have put a different spin on their run game with Kyren Williams, and it’s devastating enemy defenses.

Obviously, the primary storyline in Sunday’s wild-card game between the Los Angeles Rams and the Detroit Lions is the Matthew Stafford-Jared Goff former team thing, and justifiably so. But when you dig deeper into both of these offenses, their run games are exceptional, and Sean McVay’s Rams run game isn’t just great — it’s very different with Kyren Williams as the lead back.

McVay used to be one of the primary purveyors of outside zone runs, but that’s changed exponentially in recent years. In 2023, they’ve run behind gap blocking schemes on 42% of their snaps, which ranks fifth in the league. In 2022, the Rams ran gap on 29% of their attempts, which ranked 20th. In 2021, they ran gap on 20% of their snaps, which ranked 28th. In 2020, it was 17%, which ranked 28th. 

This is a full-on sea change in offensive philosophy, and Williams is benefiting in a lot of ways. On this 14-yard run against the Baltimore Ravens’ estimable defense in Week 14, the Rams excelled in a Duo blocking scheme. Center Coleman Shelton and left guard Steve Avila doubled defensive tackle Travis Jones, and right guard Kevin Dotson and right tackle Joseph Noteboom doubled defensive tackle Broderick Washington Jr. Then, Shelton kicked up to seal linebacker Patrick Queen, and Noteboom took Roquan Smith out. Williams had a pretty easy gap against one of the NFL’s best defenses. 

Last week, McVay used one word to describe his primary back.

“Stud. He’s exactly what we’re looking for in a Ram, mentally and physically tough, plays smart, loves to compete, really productive player. He’s got an energy. He’s like the Energizer bunny. When he goes and when he doesn’t, we’re a totally different offense and so love what he’s done. Really happy for him.”

Lions head coach Dan Campbell is well aware of the challenges — no matter how the Rams run the ball.

“I do know this, the crossover tape and some of the things I have seen, number one, they are still explosive on offense,” Campbell said Monday. “They’ve been explosive, their play-pass game. But what’s making it so dangerous, their run game. That’s what’s showing up. They’ve got a pretty dangerous run game. This mid-zone, they’re running a lot more gap than they have previously, and so that’s kind of where it all begins with them. And you put that with  Stafford’s ability to push the ball down the field and it’s dangerous.”

No team has more runs with motion this season than the Rams – 382 attempts for 1,692 yards, 1,033 yards after contact, 15 touchdowns, and 4.4 yards per carry. The Rams also have the NFL’s most runs with jet motion – 236. So, this is a primary construct of the Rams’ new run game.

Again, Campbell has been spamming himself with those concepts.

“I know for us, the challenge with it is really not what it does to you defensively from a schematic standpoint, it’s more about the eye-candy of it. If you’ll just stay true to your rules and understand who’s got that motion, who’s got this turbo motion, and play your rules and don’t let those things – don’t start chasing the butterflies. Man, just, you stay focused on your responsibilities, your keys and don’t – because one step the wrong way with that motion and all of a sudden, we lose a support player and that’s where they get you because this back is patience and when he sees it, he’s able to make the cut.”

The Lions do have a very good run defense. They’ve allowed 3.7 yards per carry on 408 carries, and that YPC is third-best in the NFL behind the Patriots and the Texans. But the Lions are well aware that they’ll see a lot of Kyren Williams in this wild-card matchup, and it’s the primary story beyond whatever Stafford-Goff stuff may be of interest. 

In this week’s “Xs and Os with Greg Cosell and Doug Farrar,” the guys got deep into Sean McVay’s ever-changing ground game.

You can watch this week’s “Xs and Os,” previewing every game in the wild-card slate, right here:

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You can also listen and subscribe to the “Xs and Os” podcast on Spotify…

…and on Apple Podcasts.

The Xs and Os with Greg Cosell: Previewing Super Wild-Card Weekend

In this week’s “Xs and Os,” Greg Cosell and Doug Farrar preview Super Wild-Card Weekend with tape study and advanced metrics.

It’s time for Super Wild-Card Weekend! Greg Cosell of NFL Films and ESPN’s NFL Matchup, and Doug Farrar of Touchdown Wire and the USA Today Sports Media Group, are here to get you ready for the most interesting matchups that could decide who advances to the divisional round.

Browns at Texans: Will the Browns defense under Jim Schwartz have answers for C.J. Stroud’s excellence against single-high coverage? Nobody plays more of it than Schwartz’s guys.

Dolphins at Chiefs: It’ll be very cold at Arrowhead Stadium, which puts the focus on the run game. Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel has all kinds of wrinkles in his rushing attack, and we discuss a new one with rookie De’Von Achane.

Steelers at Bills: Can the Steelers counter the Bills’ improving defense with shot plays from Mason Rudolph? And what does T.J. Watt’s injury mean for Josh Allen?

Packers at Cowboys: Everyone’s talking about Jordan Love and Dak Prescott here, but watch out for Green Bay’s run game with Aaron Jones as the lead dog.

Rams at Lions: Similarly, while everyone’s talking about the Matthew Stafford-Jared Goff “Revenge Game,” don’t sleep on these two great rushing attacks. Kyren Williams has changed Sean McVay’s run schemes to great effect.

Eagles at Buccaneers: Bucs head coach Todd Bowles is the Greg Maddux of blitzers — he’ll throw everything at you with a little spin at the end. How will Jalen Hurts react, when he’s struggled against pressure most of this season? Also, Baker Mayfield and his receivers could feast on Philly’s misbegotten pass defense.

In this week’s “Xs and Os with Greg Cosell and Doug Farrar,” the guys get into all of it.

You can watch this week’s “Xs and Os,” previewing every game in the wild-card slate, right here:

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You can also listen and subscribe to the “Xs and Os” podcast on Spotify…

…and on Apple Podcasts.

WIth De’von Achane, Dolphins’ motion and misdirection could be trouble for Chiefs’ defense

The Dolphins are a much better offense when running back De’von Achane is on the field, and the Chiefs are about to find that out.

If there’s one thing you know about the Miami Dolphins’ run game, it’s that it’s packed with pre-snap motion. If there’s another thing you know about the Miami Dolphins’ run game, it’s that you’re going to see a ton of misdirection to put defenses on their heels, creating more explosive opportunities.

It’s important to remember that head coach Mike McDaniel was Kyle Shanahan’s run game coordinator with the San Francisco 49ers from 2017 through 2020 before becoming San Francisco’s offensive coordinator in 2021, and then getting the Dolphins job in 2022. So, there are a lot of similar concepts, and a lot of what the Dolphins run in their ground game could be said to be Shanahan’s stuff sped up about 20% because the Dolphins have such dynamic athletes on the field.

One of those dynamic athletes this season is rookie running back De’von Achane, the Olympic-level track star and Texas A&M alum who Miami took with the 85th pick in the third round of the 2023 draft. Achane ran a 4.32-40-yard dash at his scouting combine, and all of that speed has shown up on the field. This season, Achane has gained 804 yards and scored eight rushing touchdowns on just 102 carries, which gives him an insane 7.9 yards per carry average. Achane has 13 carries of 15 or more yards on the season, meaning that he’s good for a potential house call on more than one of every 10 carries.

Beyond the straight-line speed, Achane is also a real problem for defenses aligned in McDaniel’s motion and misdirection concepts. This was really true in Miami’s 21-14 loss to the Buffalo Bills in the 2023 regular-season finale. Achane had 10 carries for 56 yards and a touchdown in the game, and all three of his explosive plays came from a similar — and highly original — run scheme.

Each of these runs also featured pre-snap motion (of course), but the real tricky part was having Tua Tagovailoa taking the snap in the Pistol formation, and Achane right behind him. Advocates of the Pistol in the run game will tell you that putting smaller backs right behind the quarterback (Achane is 5-foot-8 and 188 pounds) makes it hard for a defense to get a clean run fit right off the snap, because the back is hard to see.

Now, we get into the misdirection fakes on each of those three plays. As seen below, Tagovailoa faked a handoff to his left to… well, nobody. The idea here was to get the same player on all three plays — Bills linebacker Tyrel Dodson — and it worked on runs of 11, 16, and 25 yards.

Kansas City Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will have to deal with all this stuff when Kansas City and Miami face off Saturday in the wild-card round of the playoffs. The Dolphins and Chiefs played each other in Week 9 over in Germany. Achane didn’t play in that game — he had a knee injury that put him on short-term injured reserve — but Spags is well aware that he’s scheming it up against a different offense now. He was asked Wednesday whether there’s an advantage to facing a team for the second time in a season.

“There may be some truth to that because we all say in this league it’s hard to beat a team twice, right? I think it helps the players in that they know the person that they line up directly against, but to both sides, there’s no advantage there either way. I’m sure they’ll change some things. We’ll have a couple of new wrinkles. It’ll be a whole different game, and it’ll be in a different country [laughter]. It’ll be a different game.”

It’ll also be below zero from a wind chill perspective in Kansas City for the game, which could have both teams leaning more on the run game.

In this week’s “Xs and Os with Greg Cosell and Doug Farrar,” the guys get into all the parts of Miami’s run game that could have them advancing to the divisional round. You can watch this week’s “Xs and Os,” previewing every game in the wild-card slate, right here:

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You can also listen and subscribe to the “Xs and Os” podcast on Spotify…

…and on Apple Podcasts.

4-Down Territory: Most, least serious wild-card teams, Secret Superstars, new coaches

In this week’s “4-Down Territory,” the guys get into most and least serious wild-card teams, Secret Superstars, and new head coaches they’d like to see.

Now that the 2023 NFL regular season is over, and it’s Super Wild-Card Weekend, it’s time once again for Doug Farrar of Touchdown Wire, and Kyle Madson of Niners Wire, to come to the table with their own unique brand of analysis in “4-Down Territory.”

This week, the guys have some serious questions to answer:

  1. Which wild-card team should be taken most seriously for a Super Bowl run?
  2. Which wild-card team should be taken least seriously?
  3. Who’s your Secret Superstar for the wild-card round?
  4. Which assistant coach would you most like to get a vacant head coaching job?

You can watch this week’s “4-Down Territory” right here:

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You can also listen and subscribe to the “4-Down Territory” podcast on Spotify…

…and on Apple Podcasts.

2024 NFL Mock Draft: End-of-season quarterback decisions lead to surprising picks

How many NFL teams will stick with their current quarterbacks? A high number could make for an interesting first round of the 2024 draft.

Now that the 2023 NFL regular season is over, every team turns its attention to the draft — even those teams that are part of the postseason. Area scouts will start to move to the home facility to interact with scouting directors and general managers, and with the scouting combine less than two months away, it’s time to start putting your big boards together.

This applies especially to those teams with crucial quarterback decisions to make. For the purposes of this mock draft, we’ll assume that the Chicago Bears are sticking with Justin Fields, the Arizona Cardinals are committed to Kyler Murray, the Tennessee Titans think they have a future franchise quarterback in Will Levis, and the New York Jets think that eventually, Aaron Rodgers will stop shooting his mouth off long enough to play quarterback in 2024.

Conversely, the Washington Commanders, New England Patriots, New York Giants, and Atlanta Falcons will avail themselves of the best draftable quarterbacks possible in the interest of turning things around.

So, four quarterbacks go in the first round here, with more teams looking to build around the guys they’ve already got. That makes for one notable omission (Oregon’s Bo Nix), and a whole bunch of talented prospects at other positions pushing themselves up the boards.

C.J. Stroud, Nico Collins combine to give Houston Texans the ideal passing attack

C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins of the Texans proved Saturday night that they’re ready to face any defense. Just in time for the playoffs.

Before we get into what the Houston Texans did to the Indianapolis Colts on Saturday night, we should remind you what quarterback C.J. Stroud did without. The Texans had lost receivers Nathaniel “Tank” Dell, Robert Woods, and Noah Brown to injury — three of their top five receivers on the season. And it didn’t matter one bit. Partially because Stroud was in as much of a zone as we’ve seen from him in his nearly-sure Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign, and partially because receiver Nico Collins decided to become some unholy combination of Tyreek Hill and Mike Evans.

In the 23-19 win that put the Texans in the playoffs and eliminated the Colts from the postseason, Stroud completed 20 of 26 passes for 264 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 134.1. Stroud’s poise in and out of the pocket, ball placement, understanding of reads and coverages, and ability to sustain big plays through a game have been evident all season long, and never more so than in this game. And in his first prime-time NFL contest, Stroud proved it all the way through.

“C.J. – he doesn’t surprise me,” Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans said after the game. “We’ve talked about it earlier in the week with C.J. just being special in these big-time moments. When we need him most to step up and make plays, he has done it time after time throughout the entire year. It’s not surprising to anyone. That’s who he is. He is one of the best passers in this league, and he shows it consistently game in and game out.”

No argument there, and let’s review the details of what both Stroud and Collins were able to do.

The Colts might want to switch their defensive plan against C.J. Stroud

C.J. Stroud has killed Cover-3 all season long, and the Colts play a ton of Cover-3. Something’s going to break on Saturday night.

Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud has been one of the NFL’s most compelling rookies in recent years, regardless of position. He’s a primary reason why the Texans, who finished the 2022 season with a 3-13-1 record, are playing Saturday night for the AFC South championship at 9-7. Stroud and his comrades will tangle with a Colts defense that is quite underrated of late.

But this Colts defense has already seen more of Stroud than they might like. In Stroud’s second regular-season game of his NFL career, he carved Gus Bradley’s defense up to the tune of 30 completions in 47 attempts for 384 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 103.5.

In the rematch, Bradley might want to switch his priors around a bit. The Colts have played the NFL’s second-highest rate of Cover-3 this season (48.8%, behind only the Carolina Panthers’ 50.0%), and Stroud has killed Cover-3 all season long. The Colts in Week 2 played Cover-3 on a league-high 22 of Stroud’s dropbacks back then, and Stroud completed 14 of 19 passes for 178 yards, 95 air yards, both of his touchdowns, and a passer rating of 137.6 against Bradley’s favorite coverage. For the season, Stroud has completed 91 of 136 passes for 1,211 yards, 798 air yards, six touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 106.6 against Cover-3.

This 23-yard touchdown to rookie receiver Nathaniel “Tank” Dell in Week 2 had Stroud showing off one of his best throws against zone coverage — the quick out. The Texans had a mirrored concept here with two slot verts and two outside out routes, and the structure of the routes had Dell beating cornerback Darrell Baker, who was likely expecting Dell to run something vertical, underneath. Ready, set, go.

“He’s very talented,” Bradley said this week of Stroud. “First of all, he plays with great poise. He handles pressures, he handles looks, he handles different schemes very well. He gets the ball out timely. Does he hold it some? Yeah, because they take some shots, but it is timely when it is the quick game and when it’s in their intermediate passes. His accuracy is very good so – very poised, accurate, playing above the level of being a rookie. I think at this point in time, he’s not a rookie because the looks that he’s seen. He’s playing very well for them right now. I think they’re third or something in explosive passes. I know very high, I think the analytics told us so. He does a great job with the threats he has on the outside.”

In this week’s “Xs and Os with Greg Cosell and Doug Farrar,” the guys get into Stroud’s return from a concussion, how he was able to dice up the Titans’ pass defense in Week 17, and what it all means for this crucial Saturday night matchup. The Colts will be ready with some serious improving players on the defensive side of the ball, and it’s important to remember that Stroud was also sacked six times in that Week 2 game.

You can watch this week’s “Xs and Os” right here:

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