The Kansas City weather is the topic of discussion in the lead up to the battle of the AFC West. The Oakland Raiders are rolling to under 40-degree temperature against the Kansas City Chiefs, and the Raiders are massive underdogs with the line coming in at -10.
The reason for the point spread is receiving a beat down against the New York Jets, and the other is Derek Carr’s history in cold weather.
It all started this week on Golic and Wingo when former Raider head coach Jack Del Rio spoke about Carr’s brutal history in cold-weather games. This sparked the conversation that carried over to social media.
So @coachdelrio knows what he speaks of. Said Derek Carr does't like cold weather games. In games where temp is under 40 at kickoff.. here are his numbers:
0-4
152 Pass YPG
51% Comp pct
TD-Int (3-4)
9 Total QBRTemps at Arrowhead will be in the 30's Sunday
— trey wingo (@wingoz) November 26, 2019
Del Rio does have a point Carr struggles are duly noted when he is playing in the cold. His awful record of 2-9 under 50 degrees and a 0-4 record under 40 degrees will follow him until he starts to string together wins in the cold weather.
The numbers don’t help with Carr never hitting the 200-yard mark in these climates and only throwing three touchdowns. Keep in mind three of those losses are with Del Rio as the head coach.
Carr laughed it off this week during the press conference, but he still knows what is at stake this week in this matchup for the AFC West lead. He is determined to get this monkey off his back and raising the standards of what it means to be a Raider. He discussed this with Scott Bair of NBC Sports Network Bay Area.
What is the reason Carr struggles in the cold? Breaking down all of his games under 40 degrees at kickoff, there is undoubtedly a pattered that follows. Let’s look at all four games individually and come to a conclusion about what is going on.
Week 17, 2014 vs. Broncos
40 degrees, 7 MPH winds.
Carr’s first game in under 40-degree weather came Week 17 of the 2014 season against the Denver Broncos. The Broncos went into the game 11-4 and the Raiders 3-12 with the latter team fan base wanting a loss for draft position. It was a mismatch before the first snap, and it played out that way in the final score of 47-14.
The 2014 Raiders could make the case of being the worst team the organization put on the field this decade and was on full display every moment of the game. Carr struggled to complete passes going 18 of 36 with a wretched YPA of 4.39 and an additional three drops. No one was open for Carr all game, but early on, the Raiders were hanging in and were able to sustain good drives in the second half.
The biggest miss of the game was on a flea-flicker where Carr had André Holmes wide open, but the wide receiver slowed down, causing an overthrow. The game was 30-14 at that point and could have made it a one-score game with a two-point conversion
After that, the game got out of hand. The Raiders were put on lockdown for the rest of the matchup. Carr didn’t play well for sure, but if the Raiders pulled this one out, it would have been a colossal upset. Mark this one as a just bad team overmatched.
Week 17, 2015 vs. Chiefs
37 degrees, 7 MPH winds
2015 season was basically a preview of what the future of the Raiders that ended not even lasting the decade. The Raiders came into the game just attempting to not have a losing season. The Chiefs were the hottest team in football after starting the season 1-5 and on nine-game winning streak coming into the game.
Carr was pedestrian in this game, throwing 21-33 198 yards with a touchdown and an interception. However, he was sacked 6 times, and his receivers didn’t help with an additional three drops, and the whole offense looked flat. Ugliest play of the game was during a red-zone trip where Carr was targeting Amari Cooper and threw up a desperate heave attempting to find Cooper in the back of the end zone that ended in an interception ruining a promising drive.
The Raiders could not sustain drives in this game, leading to a high amount of three and outs, with Carr having a QBR of 21.2 on the day. Technically this is Carr’s best game in the cold, and if the rest of the offense showed up, the numbers on this one might have been different.
Week 14, 2016 vs. Chiefs
21 degrees, 7 MPH winds
Arrowhead is the theme for these games, and this one is the infamous spider wire game. The biggest game for the Raiders this decade and man was this a clunker for the Raiders quarterback. The historically lousy performance is one of the main drivers of this whole conversation about his play on bad weather.
To be fair, Carr did break his finger on his throwing hand two weeks before and could not take snaps under center. His finger was a problem all game with him barely able to catch snaps from the shotgun formation. Carr completed just 17 of 41 passes for 117 yards in the game, he joined only Jesse Palmer as the only quarterbacks since 1950 to gain fewer than 120 passing yards on more than 40 attempts.
The receivers didn’t show up again, adding another 5 drops, according to PFF, with the biggest one coming from Seth Roberts in the red zone for a touchdown.
Carr pass hits SpiderCam wire. #Raiders pic.twitter.com/Io77P132Pu
— Raider Posts (@RaiderPosts) December 9, 2016
The Raiders had every chance to win this game, and the play to Cooper where the ball moved at the last second will live infamy with Raiders fans. The defense did show up for this game, causing three turnovers, but the injury to Carr’s finger was too much to overcome once it became a factor in the game for him mentally.
Week 16, 2017 vs. Eagles
29 Degrees, 15 MPH Winds
The last game Carr has played in bad weather came against the Philadelphia Eagles during their run to the super bowl. Carr was awful this whole game when the Raiders defense and running game came to play. Carr, on the other hand, was the reason for the Raiders losing this game.
The game started off positive with Carr finding Cooper on a 63-yard touchdown early in the second quarter, and the Raiders defense feasted on Nick Foles, causing him to be under pressure all night.
The offense, on the other hand, could not move the football, and Carr was missing throws all night and had no flow with his receiving corps to make plays. He ended up throwing a back-breaking interception that led to the game-winning field goal for the Eagles late in the game-sealing another loss for the 2017 Raiders.
This game was a turning point for the Raiders franchise as the man calling this football game was Jon Gruden. Just three weeks later, he was named the Oakland Raiders new head coach, and a fresh rebuild began towards the future in Las Vegas.
Conclusion
There is real credence to the thought process that Carr is not good in cold-weather games. All his performances point to this, but it’s true that the Raiders as a franchise struggle in the same area. The Raiders are 23-30 since the merger and 15-32 since 1980, which is without John Madden. The Raiders got blown out 51-3 in Buffalo in the 1990 AFC championship game. Rich Gannon was 1-7 in games under 40 degrees.
It is just an item the Raiders will struggle with being a west coast team. The drops are an issue for the receivers with 11 during Carr’s tenure as the quarterback under 40 degrees. However, the Raiders need to find a way to pull out these tough games in Arrowhead, and Carr has to get over the hump and use the chatter for motivation.
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