Category: Projections

Browns offseason hints at something big coming at defensive end

The Cleveland Browns sure appear poised to make a major move at the DE spot opposite Myles Garrett in the very near future

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Something big is coming to the Cleveland Browns at defensive end. I can feel it. GM Andrew Berry and the Browns brass typically do a masterful job of concealing their hand, but on this front, it sure feels like they’ve shown they want to make a splash with the starting DE spot opposite Myles Garrett.

Maybe I’m just drinking in too many of the tea leaves, but it’s hard to not read all the signs from Berry & Co.

And it even goes back to last offseason. Remember the repeated courtship of Jadeveon Clowney? The Browns got lucky in avoiding that disappointment, but it wasn’t for lack of trying to sign the big-ticket DE.

They tried again–allegedly–with J.J. Watt. While no exact details ever have been confirmed, numerous reputable outlets had the Browns as one of the primary teams trying to lure the ex-Texans star. He settled on going to Arizona instead, with a bigger contract than expected, too.

On Tuesday, they let Adrian Clayborn go. The No. 3 DE last year is 32 and didn’t make a great impact on the Browns in his one season in Cleveland, but he was penciled in as the starter opposite Garrett. With Olivier Vernon a pending free agent and also in the early stages of recovering from a torn Achilles, dumping Clayborn leaves just Porter Gustin and Joe Jackson in that spot.

Nothing against Gustin or Jackson, but it’s difficult to envision either of them being more than situational subs on the defense of a legit contender. Clearing Clayborn off the books frees up $3 million more to spend on someone who can be an impact performer for a Browns team that has legitimate contender status.

The big question now is, what’s the move?

Is it a prominent veteran free agent, someone like Cincinnati’s Carl Lawson or Tampa Bay’s Shaq Barrett? The Browns have the cap room to make it happen and the appeal of being a worthy landing spot for a ring-chaser.

Or will it be a draft pick? The pass-rush class doesn’t have any elite standouts, none who project as much above the 11-20 overall range. The Browns currently pick at No. 26. Players like Georgia’s Azeez Ojulari, versatile Tulsa standout Zaven Collins or freakish Penn State athlete Jayson Oweh should all be in consideration. Berry and the Browns have the ammo to trade up if they have a specific target in mind, too.

It’s going to be fun to see how it plays out and who winds up being the new starting defensive end. Expect it to be a significant move, no matter which direction the Browns turn. They’ve laid out too many bread crumbs for that trail to not result in a big feast.

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NFL sets minimum salary cap at $180 million for the 2021 season

It’s at least $5 million above the worst-case scenario

While the official figure for the 2021 NFL salary cap is not yet established, teams got a bit of good news on Thursday. In a memo sent to all 32 teams from the league office, the NFL established that the minimum figure for the cap in the upcoming season will be no less than $180 million.

That’s higher than the worst-case scenario of $175 million, which was the figure the NFL and NFLPA agreed upon as the lowest possible cap figure during negotiations last summer. The $180 million is still tens of millions under what the cap projected to be under normal business conditions, but the COVID-19 pandemic significantly lowered the NFL’s operating budgets and income.

The exact figure for the 2021 salary cap for all teams is expected to be established soon. Typically the cap figure gets announced during the annual scouting combine in late February, but that event has been canceled due to the pandemic.

Browns free agency decision: CB Kevin Johnson – performance and potential upgrades

The Browns could keep Johnson but also have other options presented here

When the Cleveland Browns signed CB Kevin Johnson to a one-year deal worth $3.5M, they were hoping to get the 2019 Buffalo Bills version of Johnson. They didn’t. Johnson was brought in to fill the nickel cornerback position. He missed most of the Browns truncated training camp due to a lacerated liver, but was able to get on the field by Week 3 of the regular season.

Performance

Johnson was occasionally forced to play outside due to the absence of Greedy Williams and the ongoing roster shuffle of players on and off of the Covid-19/Reserve list. He played 225 snaps out wide and 338 in the slot according to Pro Football Focus. 

Overall, Johnson was inconsistent at best as the former 1st round pick’s performance remained disappointing compared to where he was drafted and what he has shown on tape at times in his career. In Johnson’s second season in the league, he posted his best PFF grade of 81.2 for the Houston Texans which he followed up with consecutive seasons of grades below 50 (46.1, 38.6). In 2019, he signed on with the Buffalo Bills and showed he could potentially be what the Texans thought they were getting when they drafted him 16th overall, posting a grade of 71.9.

Unfortunately, he failed to sustain that level of play with the Browns in 2020, posting an overall grade of 51.4 and a coverage grade of 52.6. He finished ranked 96th out of 121 eligible cornerbacks per PFF.

Potential Upgrades

The Browns should be looking to upgrade multiple positions on the defense in 2021 and this should be one of them. Having a good nickel cornerback is vital in today’s game and it’s consistently increasing emphasis on the pass game.

There are a number of players the Browns will likely look to acquire in free agency that specialize at playing in the slot and would make the defense better. A nickel corner that would make sense is CB Mike Hilton of the Pittsburgh Steelers who has played almost exclusively in the slot. Hilton has been terrific in both man and zone coverage, defending the run and when blitzing.

CB Troy Hill of the Los Angeles Rams has spent his share of time as an outside corner, but he excelled when moved into the slot after they acquired Jalen Ramsey. Hill is very versatile and could play either in the slot or outside but is probably best suited to go against smaller wide receivers in the slot.

CB Brian Poole of the New York Jets, fits in nicely as NFL nickel cornerback at 5-9, 215 lbs. Poole has emerged as one of the best slot corners in the game over the last two years, only allowing one touchdown and holding the opponent’s quarterback passer rating under 70 when targeting him during that time. He has been incredibly consistent and will be valued in free agency.

The Browns would do well to come away with any of these players. The nickel corner position is often undervalued in the NFL which does suppress their value on the free agent market somewhat. Depending on the currently fluid salary cap situation for the 2021 season, I would expect all of three players to command somewhere between $4M-$6M per year, which is not bad considering they paid $3.5M for Kevin Johnson.

Johnson will likely catch on somewhere for just over the veterans minimum with some incentives included as a way to make some of his value back. I would be surprised if the Browns brought him back for next season.

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Browns begin at No. 7 in ESPN’s 2021 NFL power rankings

The expectations are going up for the Browns after an impressive 2020

The Super Bowl is officially over and it’s time to look towards the 2021 season. The talking heads at ESPN have provided us with their early NFL Power Rankings. Usually I would dread reading a piece like this, but ESPN ranked the Cleveland Browns inside the top 10 at number seven.

My first reaction to seeing Cleveland ranked at number seven was shocked as our friends at BetMGM have given the Browns the 10th-best odds to take home the Lombardi next year. Seventh is a solid jump from that. The Browns are the fourth-highest ranked team in the AFC and the second highest from the AFC North. The Baltimore Ravens are one spot higher at sixth.

It is not shocking to see the Baltimore Ravens ranked higher, and as a Cleveland fan, it is honestly a relief to the Browns this high at all. In other AFC North news, the Pittsburgh Steelers are ranked at 11th and the Cincinnati Bengals are ranked 27th.

Browns are once again shown no respect by expert picks

Nearly everyone doubted the Browns last week too and look how that turned out

The Cleveland Browns are once again heavy underdogs in the postseason.  The odds are stacked against them even higher this week against Kansas City than last week in Pittsburgh, and I am not just talking about the 10-point spread, which is the largest of the week. In order to find an NFL expert that picks the Browns, you have to look pretty far and wide.

When looking at the percentage of experts predicting a Cleveland victory, NFL Pickwatch only has 4 percent marked for the Browns. This is the most lopsided game of the week, but it should come as no surprise to Browns fans.

Not one pundit on the CBS Sports panel had the cajones to side with the Browns either, but things get a bit more even when looking at it from a gambling perspective. Five of the eight on the panel actually have Cleveland winning against the spread.

Expectations may be low for the Browns going up against such a powerhouse Chiefs squad, but they are looking to be the favorite against the spread. The spread opened at 10 but has now moved to 9.5 in most books, which indicates most of the money be placed is on our beloved Browns. According to the Action Network, 53% of all tickets are on Cleveland, which should be another feather in the respect cap.

Another key trend that makes the Browns look better is the fact that teams in the divisional round that receive seven or more points are 60% against the spread in the last 10 years. It doesn’t stop there.

The referee for the game is Clay Martin; road teams cover the spread 70% of the time when he is the referee. Although all of these positives include betting odds, it is still interesting to note.

Browns vs. Chiefs tale of the AFC divisional round tape

Here’s how the two teams stack up statistically in a number of key areas.

The Cleveland Browns get a shot at knocking off the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC divisional round this Sunday. Fresh off an upset win in Pittsburgh over the rival Steelers, the Browns once again face a difficult opponent with a lot of offensive firepower and some premium defensive weapons.

Those same traits also apply to the Browns themselves, which makes this a fascinating matchup in Kansas City. Here’s how the two teams stack up statistically in a number of key areas.

All stats are from Pro Football Reference and Team Rankings.

The Browns Wire Podcast: Giants victory review and Jets preview

Josh and Donovan break down the New York games and best bets for Week 16

Welcome to The Browns Wire Podcast, hosted by Josh Keatley (@JoshKeatley16). This week, Donovan James (@DonJamesSports) and I discuss the victory against the New York Giants, the upcoming contest against the New York Jets and out best bets for both college and the NFL.

  • Is Kevin Stefanski the coach of the year?
  • Are the Browns easy money to cash as a 9.5 point favorite?
  • Can UL Lafayette make another cover?

Give the Browns Wire Podcast a like on Facebook and follow along with us on Twitter.

It’s also available on all of your favorite podcast apps, including iTunes, TuneIn, Stitcher and Spotify. Thanks for listening!

The podcast is now streaming live on Tuesday and Wednesday night on YouTube!

 

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Browns postseason rooting guide for Week 15

Big weekend for the AFC playoff races

The Cleveland Browns sit in fifth place in the AFC with their 9-4 record entering Week 15. That’s good enough for a one-game lead in the Wild Card standings, but the grip is tenuous.

This weekend will help shake out the AFC playoff picture. In fact, it already has. Thursday’s night overtime win by the Chargers in Las Vegas dropped the Raiders to 7-7. That’s an important loss for the Browns in the tie-breaker process because the Raiders beat the Browns earlier this year.

Here are the other games with impact on Cleveland and the most favorable outcomes.

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins are 8-5 and breathing down Cleveland’s neck. New England is 6-7 and clinging to mathematical improbability for a postseason berth. Just one more Cleveland win eliminates the Patriots from overtaking them for a spot, so it’s obvious to root for New England to somehow take down the Dolphins.

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills

Buffalo leads the AFC East at 10-3, two games up on the Dolphins in that division and one game above the Browns overall. At 5-8, the Broncos are insignificant for Cleveland. A Bills win clinches the East and helps them cement the No. 3 seed (or higher). Presuming the Browns hang onto the top Wild Card spot, that would mean Cleveland would avoid playing Buffalo in the first round of the playoffs.

Detroit Lions at Tennessee Titans

The rule of thumb applies here: always root for NFC teams to beat AFC playoff contenders. The 9-4 Titans clinch a playoff berth if they win and the Ravens lose. It’s not terrible if the Titans win because that would help them win the South, and the Browns fare better in Wild Card tiebreakers against the Colts than the Titans despite beating both of them.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts

The hope here is ex-Browns coach Romeo Crennel can pull off one last upset as the interim coach of the Texans. Indianapolis, like Cleveland, is 9-4. They’re chasing the Titans in the South and currently hold the No. 6 seed.

Looking forward, as long as the Browns and Colts (or Titans) are the only teams involved in a tiebreak situation, the Browns will prevail. But Cleveland loses out in multi-team situations in almost every scenario. A Colts loss here would help in that regard, too.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens’ win over the Browns on Monday night dramatically improved their playoff vitality. At 8-5, they’re still very much in the picture despite being on the outside looking in at the start of the week.

Jacksonville hasn’t won since Week 1, though they have played some close games of late. A Jaguars upset would be the single best outcome the Browns can hope for in any game this weekend.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (Monday)

The Steelers clinch the North with a win. In looking at the roster the Bengals are expected to trot out, it’s probably time to give up the dream of a Browns’ division title.

 

 

4 Final bold predictions for Browns vs. Titans

On Chubb vs. Henry, Baker Mayfield, Corey Davis and more

Gameday is here. The Cleveland Browns get their first shot in several weeks at proving they’re a viable AFC contender by facing the Tennessee Titans. Both teams are 8-3 and have won three of their last four games.

The Titans are favored to win, and rightly so. They’re coming off impressive wins over the Colts and Ravens, while the Browns struggled with the Jaguars and Texans and weren’t convincing in beating the Eagles. Those teams have combined for the same amount of wins Cleveland has on the season.

Yet the Browns have a fair chance to seize the win in Tennessee. Will they?

Here are four final predictions for Sunday’s game.

Browns Wire Podcast: College and NFL best bets for Week 8

Josh Keatley and special guest Donovan James break it all down

Welcome to The Browns Wire Podcast, hosted by Josh Keatley (@JoshKeatley16). This week, Donovan James (DonJamesSports) and I discuss our best bets for the upcoming college and NFL weekend.

  • Can we continue the winning streak?
  • Is Michigan back?
  • Do we fade the Patriots?
  • Austin Hooper autograph giveaway: your chance to win an Austin Hooper autograph — like, follow and share and it can be yours.

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It’s also available on all of your favorite podcast apps, including iTunes, TuneIn, Stitcher and Spotify. Thanks for listening!