picks and betting tips – Page 45

UFC on ABC 1: Carlos Condit vs. Matt Brown odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Saturday’s UFC on ABC 1 fight between Carlos Condit and Matt Brown, with MMA betting odds, picks, tips and predictions.

In a welterweight bout on Saturday’s main card, Carlos Condit and Matt Brown meet at UFC on ABC 1 at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The event is also known as UFC Fight Island 7. The prelims kick off at noon ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card on ABC/ESPN+ at 3 p.m. ET.

Condit (31-13) stands two inches taller than his counterpart, with a slight half-inch advantage in the reach department. The two are fairly even in the significant strikes landed per minute category, with Brown (24-17) holding a slight 3.81 to 3.69 advantage. Brown is also much more accurate with the big blows, leading 54.26 to 39.11 in significant strikes-accuracy percentage.

Brown has hinted that this could be the final fight of his career, while Condit is fighting in the final bout of his current contract, so both of these fighters should let it all hang out. Brown is coming off a second-round KO/TKO loss to Miguel Baeza in Jacksonville, Fla., May 16, 2020. Win or lose, Brown fights have been exciting lately, with five straight bouts ended via KO/TKO (2-3), and seven straight stoppages dating back to his last decision on March 14, 2015, at UFC 185.

Condit – a.k.a. “The Natural Born Killer” – snapped a five-bout losing streak with a unanimous-decision win over Court McGee last time out on Oct. 3, 2020. He has fallen hard since fighting for a strap at UFC 195 against “Ruthless” Robbie Lawler. He lost that night in the title bout as he tried to regain his strap, and he hadn’t won in over five calendar years before his win over McGee. Now, Condit looks to start 2021 off on the right foot, searching for consecutive victories for the first time since he rattled off five straight victories from Sept. 16, 2009, to Feb. 4, 2012. Condit’s last fight went the distance, but two of his past three have come by stoppage (both submissions), and six of his past nine have finished inside the distance.

This event will be broadcast on network television for the first time since a FOX broadcast in December 2018. It will also be the first time a limited number of fans can attend since UFC 248. The UFC is expecting around 2,000 fans, or less than 10 percent capacity.

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Condit vs. Brown: Betting odds, predictions and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 2:44 p.m. ET.

Condit (-165) just hasn’t been himself lately, and BROWN (+140) might be fighting with more desperation than usual if he really is going to call it a career. As such, I like the moderate underdog here as a nice value.

I also really like NO (-110): “WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE?” as Brown’s past seven fights have not needed the judges to get involved. Condit hasn’t been as quick to find a winner lately, but 66.7% of his previous nine have ended via stoppage. UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (+100) appears to be a pretty good value, too, as if the fight doesn’t go all the way, it isn’t going this far, either.

I am also buying BROWN IN ROUND 2 (+950) and BROWN IN ROUND 3 (+1500). I like him for the upset win, and if he finishes in either of the final two rounds, you’ll be well ahead even though you’ll obviously lose one end. BROWN BY KO/TKO, DQ or SUBMISSION (+280) is worth a roll of the dice, too.

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UFC on ABC 1: Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Li Jingliang odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Saturday’s UFC on ABC 1 fight between Santiago Ponzinibbio and Li Jingliang, with MMA betting odds, picks, tips and predictions.

In a welterweight bout on Saturday’s main card, Santiago Ponzinibbio and Li Jingliang meet at UFC on ABC 1 at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The event is also known as UFC Fight Island 7. The prelims kick off at noon ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card on ABC/ESPN+ at 3 p.m. ET.

Ponzinibbio (28-3) streaks in with seven consecutive victories, including a fourth-round KO/TKO win over Neil Magny in his most recent bout Nov. 17, 2018, in the main event in his native Argentina. He has been sidelined since due to a pair of bacterial infections, which forced him to spend eight days in the hospital. The Argentine fighter was initially discharged, but started to lose weight and developed a fever, which had his doctors concerned. He was forced to spend 10 more days in the hospital before being cleared to return to training and physical therapy. He was unable to regain his strength, however, and doctors said his career might be in jeopardy as a result. After many more meetings with doctors, including a rheumatologist, he was correctly diagnosed and able to rebuild strength and get back on track with his career after the scare.

Jingliang (17-6) also fought Magny in his last fight (March 7, 2020), losing by unanimous decision at UFC 248. The loss snapped a three-bout win streak, which had Jingliang rising in the welterweight rankings. Five of his previous nine pro bouts have finished inside the distance, including five victories via KO/TKO.

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Ponzinibbio vs. Jingliang: Betting odds, predictions and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 2:40 p.m. ET.

Ponzinibbio (-275) is a rather heavy favorite in this one, and that’s surprising considering he is coming back from such a lengthy layoff and there are plenty of questions concerning his strength and cardio and whether there will be any rust. As such, JINGLIANG (+225) might be worth a small-unit play as a good flyer.

We aren’t likely to see Ponzinibbio fire out of the box and look for a quick finish. He will likely take it slow as he eases back into the octagon, trying to conserve his energy and see where he is physically before letting it go full out against a tough opponent. It wouldn’t be surprising to see this one need the judges, so it’s rather surprising YES (+130): “WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE?” Take advantage. OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (+110) gives you a little wiggle room if it doesn’t quite go the distance, and is still a nice value at plus-money.

It’s a little risky, but back JINGLIANG IN ROUND 1 (+900), JINGLIANG IN ROUND 2 (+1300) and JINGLIANG IN ROUND 3 (+2000). Yes, you will lose at least two of those, and all three if Ponzinibbio wins or Jingliang wins on points. But if Jingliang gets the finish, you’ll be far ahead, and it is worth the risk.

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UFC on ABC 1: Punahele Soriano vs. Dusko Todorovic odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Saturday’s UFC on ABC 1 fight between Punahele Soriano and Dusko Todorovic, with MMA betting odds, picks, tips and predictions.

In a middleweight bout on Saturday’s main card, Punahele Soriano and Dusko Todorovic meet at UFC on ABC 1 at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The event is also known as UFC Fight Island 7. The prelims kick off at noon ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card on ABC/ESPN+ at 3 p.m. ET.

Soriano (7-0) checks into this battle of unbeatens standing two inches shorter than Todorovic (10-0), while also having a 1.5-inch reach disadvantage. He’ll try to make it up by going to the takedown early and often, although Todorovic does have three submission wins, so Soriano will have to be careful.

Todorovic made his UFC debut Oct. 3, 2020, against Dequan Townsend, dusting his counterpart in Round 2 at the 3:15 mark by way of KO/TKO. In 10 career professional bouts, Todorovic has finished inside the distance on nine occasions, winning six times via KO/TKO and three by way of submission.

Soriano – a.k.a. “Puna” – has just one fight under his belt at the UFC level, too. He made quick work of Oskar Piechota at UFC 245, winning in Round 1 by KO/TKO. Like Todorovic, just one of Soriano’s pro bouts ended up going the distance. He’s won four times by KO/TKO with two wins via submission, both by rear-naked choke.

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Soriano vs. Todorovic: Betting odds, predictions and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 2:16 p.m. ET.

TODOROVIC (-160) is a moderate favorite in this one, and a good bet to take care of the slightly lesser experienced Soriano (+135). Bet the Russian fighter on the 2-way line and feel pretty confident about it.

Another good bet, although slightly more expensive than I like to wager, is NO (-200): “WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE?” In 17 combined fights, these two combatants have managed to go the distance just twice. This one is likely to end by way or submission or KO/TKO. The better bet is probably the KO/TKO/DQ (-135). If you do not bet a specific fighter, it’s a pretty good value. I like TODOROVIC BY KO/TKO or DQ (+225) on the 7-way line where you can more than double up your initial wager.

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UFC on ABC 1: Alessio Di Chirico vs. Joaquin Buckley odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Saturday’s UFC on ABC 1 fight between Alessio Di Chirico and Joaquin Buckley, with MMA betting odds, picks, tips and predictions.

In a middleweight bout on Saturday’s main card, Joaquin Buckley and Alessio Di Chirico meet at UFC on ABC 1 at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The event is also known as UFC Fight Island 7. The prelims kick off at noon ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card on ABC/ESPN+ at 3 p.m. ET.

Buckley (12-3) heads into this one standing two inches shorter than his counterpart, but he does possess a two-inch reach advantage. The southpaw holds a 4.89 to 3.25 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, although Di Chirico (12-5) is more accurate at 40.73 to 38.10 significant strikes-accuracy percentage. In addition, Di Chirico is more superior in takedown average at 1.66 to 0.66 and takedown-accuracy percentage at 45.83 to 16.67.

Since arriving at the UFC level, Buckley has won two of his three outings, including a second-round KO/TKO of Jordan Wright at UFC 255. In fact, all three of his UFC level fights, and each of his past five pro bouts, have resulted in KO/TKO, winning four of them.

Di Chirico enters on a three-bout losing skid, all by way of unanimous decision, including his loss to Zak Cummings Aug. 29, 2020. Overall, he has dropped five of his past eight bouts, and finished inside the distance just twice in the past nine pro fights.

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Di Chirico vs. Buckley: Betting odds, predictions and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 1:55 p.m. ET.

Buckley (-275) will cost you nearly three times your potential return, so it’s not a good idea unless you plan to toss him into a multi-fighter parlay. Instead, get a little more specific.

BUCKLEY BY KO/TKO, DQ or SUBMISSION (-105) is nearly even money, and the only way you lose is if he does or if he wins on points. Since each of his past five outings have ended by way of knockout, it’s likely the judges don’t get close to being involved.

That being said, take UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-125) for a nice value. If you don’t want to bet a specific fighter, but just the fight finish, roll with the KO/TKO/DQ (-135) at a good value.

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UFC Vegas 17: Stephen Thompson vs. Geoff Neal odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Saturday’s UFC Vegas 17 fight between Stephen Thompson and Geoff Neal, with MMA betting odds, picks, tips and predictions.

In a welterweight bout in the main event, Stephen Thompson and Geoff Neal meet at UFC Vegas 17 at the UFC’s APEX facility in Las Vegas. The event is also known as UFC Fight Night 183. The prelims kick off at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.

Thompson (15-4-1) bounced back from a two-bout losing streak with a unanimous-decision win over Vicente Luque at UFC 244. The two losses for “Wonderboy” were against Anthony Pettis and Darren Till, so there’s no shame in losses to those two. He is just five bouts removed from fighting for the welterweight strap, going 0-1-1 in two tries against Tyron Woodley at UFC 205 and 209.

While 2-3-1 across the past six outings might not look terribly impressive, he has fought a who’s who of the division. Six of his past seven fights have ended up going the distance, with only a second-round knockout loss to Pettis in the main event on March 23, 2019, as the only fight not to involve the judges.

The southpaw Neal (13-2) has registered 6.04 significant strikes landed per minute to 3.93 for Thompson, and he has a 49.77 to 44.34 significant strikes accuracy percentage, too. In addition, Neal has a 0.85 to 0.36 takedown average, and 0.43 to 0.00 submission average. While those statistics are all well and good, Neal doesn’t have nearly the laundry list of impressive opponents as his counterpart.

In fact, only Neal’s first-round knockout of Mike Perry last time out at UFC 245 causes anyone to raise an eyebrow. Outside of Niko Price and Belal Muhammad, his other UFC foes are tomato cans.

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Stephen Thompson vs. Geoff Neal: Betting odds, predictions and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:05 a.m. ET.

THOMPSON (-105) is the play in this one, even though he is listed as a slight ‘dog to Neal (-115). Wonderboy just has the better pedigree and experience against top-notch opponents. That’s not to say Neal isn’t a talented fighter, but his time is not now.

As far as the length of the fight, play YES (+145) ON ‘WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE?’ for a good value. Six of the past seven fights have ended up involving the judges when Thompson is in the octagon. He looks to win the judges with his technical aspects, while Neal will be looking for the big shots to take him down.

But Thompson is experienced and will be able to deflect those big shots and keep his foe at bay. As such, playing THOMPSON ON POINTS (+340) is worth a roll of the dice, too, for a potential triple up and then some.

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UFC Vegas 17: Jose Aldo vs. Marlon Vera odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Saturday’s UFC Vegas 17 fight between Jose Aldo and Marlon Vera, with MMA betting odds, picks, tips and predictions.

In a bantamweight bout on the main card, Jose Aldo and Marlon Vera meet at UFC Vegas 17 at the UFC’s APEX facility in Las Vegas. The event is also known as UFC Fight Night 183. The prelims kick off at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.

Aldo (28-7) heads into this one on a three-bout losing skid, falling to belt holder Petr Yan last time out on the UFC 251 card when he was knocked out in the fifth round. Before that, he was the victim of a split-decision loss to Marlon Moraes, who is also on this card, and he fell at UFC 237 by unanimous decision against Alexander Volkanovski.

His last victory was nearly two calendar years ago on Feb. 2, 2019, as he knocked out Renato Moicano. He hopes it’s Groundhog Day here, and he gets the stoppage against his counterpart in this one.

Vera (16-6-1) dropped Sean O’Malley by KO/TKO in the first round on Aug. 15, 2020, at UFC 252, rebounding from a disappointing unanimous-decision setback to Song Yadong in Jacksonville on the Overeem-Harris card.

Lately, the Ecuadorian hasn’t been interested in going long into the night, as six of his past seven fights have ended via stoppage, with four wins by way of KO/TKO, and two submission wins. The only time he lost during the seven-bout span was his decision to Song.

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Jose Aldo vs. Marlon Vera: Betting odds, predictions and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:50 a.m. ET.

ALDO (-150) is a powerhouse who has fought for titles, and he is just too good to lose three in a row, let alone four. This will be the fight where he finally gets back on track and points in the right direction again.

It’s a little surprising that with both of these fighters seeing so many stoppages in recent outings, NO (+145) ON ‘WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE?’ is at plus-money. Take advantage. I also like Aldo on the 7-way line, so take ALDO BY KO/TKO OR DQ (+425) for a potentially big payoff.

You can include the submission on the 5-way line for lesser money back, but it’s a waste since Aldo hasn’t had a submission result since a loss on Nov. 26, 2005, and he hasn’t won by submission since getting an arm triangle since March 18, 2005, at Shooto: Brazil 7 against Luiz de Paula. In addition, UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (+155) is a good play, too.

If you’re uncertain on a specific winner, but want action in the fight, take KO/TKO/DQ (+200) for the fight finish, and if the fight doesn’t go the distance or end via submission, you win, regardless of the victor.

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UFC Vegas 17: Michel Pereira vs. Khaos Williams odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Saturday’s UFC Vegas 17 fight between Michel Pereira and Khaos Williams, with MMA betting odds, picks, tips and predictions.

In a welterweight bout on the main card, Michel Pereira and Khaos Williams meet at UFC Vegas 17 at the UFC’s APEX facility in Las Vegas. The event is also known as UFC Fight Night 183. The prelims kick off at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.

Pereira (24-11) snapped a two-bout skid last time out with a third-round submission win over Zelim Imadaev, helping to get back on track. So far in four fights at the UFC level, he has won two and lost two.

It’s usually interesting when Pereira hits the octagon, as he has a submission win, a disqualification, a unanimous decision loss and a KO/TKO win. “Demolidor” has 35 career professional fights, with 11 endings by way of KO/TKO (10-1), with eight endings via submission (7-1).

Williams (11-1) is a punching machine, and he will look to use his four-inch reach advantage to keep Pereira at a distance. Williams has a 15.79 significant strikes landed per minute since arriving at the UFC level, but that’s a little misleading.

He knocked out Alex Morono at UFC 247 just 27 seconds into his company debut, and he followed that up with a knockout in just 30 seconds on the Felder-Dos Anjos card against Abdul Razak Alhassan on Nov. 14, 2010, thus the quick turnaround.

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Michel Pereira vs. Khaos Williams: Betting odds, predictions and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:40 a.m. ET.

WILLIAMS (+100) will face his stiffest competition since arriving at the UFC level. Pereira (-120) will be able to dodge Williams and avoid the early blast which Morono and Alhassan were unable to avoid.

Still, Williams has amazing power, and his reach advantage will keep Pereira from being able to get in close and get him to the ground, which is a bit of an unknown for Williams and how he might react.

It’s going a little bit against the grain, as both fights for Williams at the UFC level haven’t even lasted a minute, but Pereira is a veteran. Look for this one to go well into Round 2, so OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-130) is worth a play.

Still, I am not looking for this one to go the distance. Play WILLIAMS BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (+155), and if you play WILLIAMS IN ROUND 2 (+650) and WILLIAMS IN ROUND 3 (+1400), it could pay off huge. Yes, you’ll lose one end, but if Khaos wins in either the second or third round you will be well ahead.

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UFC Vegas 17: Marlon Moraes vs. Rob Font odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Saturday’s UFC Vegas 17 fight between Marlon Moraes and Rob Font, with MMA betting odds, picks, tips and predictions.

In a bantamweight bout on the main card, Marlon Moraes and Rob Font meet at UFC Vegas 17 at the UFC’s APEX facility in Las Vegas. The event is also known as UFC Fight Night 183. The prelims kick off at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.

Moraes (23-7-1) is looking to get himself back into the title picture, but he has a ways to go. He had a shot against Henry Cejudo at UFC 238, but he was knocked out in the third round on June 8, 2019, and forced to regroup.

He bounced back with a nice split-decision win over Jose Aldo, who is also on this card, but it’s back to the drawing board after Cory Sandhagen knocked Moraes out just 63 seconds into Round 2 in the main event on Oct. 10, 2020. Five of the past six fights for Moraes have finished inside the distance, with three wins and two losses in those outings.

Font (17-4) heads into this one looking for a third straight win, something he has yet to do since arriving at the UFC level. His past two wins have been by unanimous decision, including his last time out over Ricky Simon on Dec. 7, 2019. The last time he had a stoppage was Jan. 19, 2018, in a knockout in Round 2 against Thomas Almeida. Font enters the octagon with a 4.5-inch reach advantage, as well as a two-inch height advantage.

He also has 5.11 significant strikes landed per minute to just 3.43 for Moraes. In addition, Font leads 1.25 to 0.64 in takedown average, and 0.78 to 0.42 in submission average.

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Marlon Moraes vs. Rob Font: Betting odds, predictions and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:30 a.m. ET.

FONT (+130) is worth a look as a short ‘dog in this one against Moraes (-155) on the 2-way line. He leads all of the key statistics, and he is also a little bit better at deflecting significant strikes, too.

It’s basically a coin-flip situation as far as the distance is concerned. Moraes has been getting plenty of stoppage results, while Font has seen each of his past three go to the judges.

I expect Font to pull off the slight upset, so go with YES (-115) ON ‘WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE?’. In addition, playing OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (-125) is also a safe play, too.

Lastly, it’s a good bet to take ‘FONT BY DECISION’ (+275) for a potential nice payday.

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UFC Vegas 17: Greg Hardy vs. Marcin Tybura odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Saturday’s UFC Vegas 17 fight between Greg Hardy and Marcin Tybura, with MMA betting odds, picks, tips and predictions.

In a heavyweight bout on the main card, Marcin Tybura and Greg Hardy meet at UFC Vegas 17 at the UFC’s APEX facility in Las Vegas. The event is also known as UFC Fight Night 183. The prelims kick off at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.

Tybura (20-6) steps into the octagon against Hardy (7-2), the former NFL player, in a battle of titans. The Polish-born MMA fighter isn’t as impressive from a physical standpoint, standing two inches shorter while he also has a 2 1/2-inch reach disadvantage, too.

However, Tybura has been a lot more successful with 50.36 significant strikes accuracy percentage to 49.75 for Hardy, and he has an even bigger lead in takedown average at 1.63 to 0.24. Tybura also has a 47.22 to 33.33 takedown accuracy percentage, too.

Tybura is coming off a unanimous-decision win over Ben Rothwell on Oct. 10, 2020, and each of his past three fights has been unanimous decision victories. He hasn’t won by stoppage since a KO/TKO against Luis Henrique at UFC 209, so it’s been a while. He has been knocked out, though. In fact, each of his past three losses in the past seven fights has come via KO/TKO, and Hardy would like to add to that.

Hardy is a brawler who is coming off a second-round KO/TKO win over Maurice Greene on Halloween. Since arriving at the UFC, he is 4-2-1 across the past seven fights, and he enters with wins in back-to-back fights.

He hasn’t won three straight MMA fights since his pro debut on June 12, 2018 through Sept. 29, 2018. He has never won three in a row at the UFC level, so that bodes well in Tybura’s favor.

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Marcin Tybura vs. Greg Hardy: Betting odds, predictions and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:10 a.m. ET.

HARDY (-130) is a good bet on the 2-way line as a short favorite, even though he has never won three in a row at the UFC level. He is a brawler, and Tybura is susceptible to the big punch.

As long as Hardy can keep this fight upright and off the mat, which is where Tybura might have an advantage, the former linebacker is going to win. If you want to get even more specific, playing HARDY BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (+135) is a decent value. However, if he wins via decision, you lose.

Playing NO (-175) ON ‘WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE?’ is also a good play here, as Hardy isn’t usually interested in letting the judges decide his fate. He comes up throwing punches early and often.

Playing UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-145) is a little bit cheaper, and should still get you a winning ticket.

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UFC 256: Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Brandon Moreno odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Saturday’s UFC 256 fight between Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno, with MMA betting odds, picks, tips and predictions.

In a flyweight championship bout in Saturday’s main event, Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno meet at UFC 256 at the UFC’s APEX facility in Las Vegas. The prelims kick off at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2/ESPN+, followed by the main card on Pay-Per-View at 10 p.m. ET.

Figueiredo (20-1) is back in action just a few weeks after defending his strap at UFC 255 on Nov. 21. He picked up a Round 1 submission win over Alex Perez in just 1:57 in that one, and he has finished inside the distance (all wins) in four straight since his last decision win over Alexandre Pantoja July 27, 2019. This will be Figueiredo’s fourth fight of 2020, so he definitely hasn’t been milking the strap. Three of his past four have ended in Round 1, so he has barely had to break a sweat during the impressive run.

Moreno (18-5-1) gets a crack at the title. He’ll look to use his two-inch height and two-inch reach advantages to get it done. He also has a slight 3.01 to 2.79 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, although Figueiredo is way more pinpoint with a 55.80 to 35.18 significant strikes-accuracy percentage. Figueiredo is more superb in the ground game, too, so it would behoove the Mexican fighter to try and go toe-to-toe for the win.

Moreno, who is coming off an impressive Round 1 knockout of up-and-comer Brandon Royval, he has won three straight since a split-decision draw against Askar Askarov Sept. 21, 2019. Moreno has gone the distance in five of his past seven pro fights, whereas Figueiredo has stoppages in four straight, and six of the past eight.

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Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Brandon Moreno: Betting odds, predictions and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:49 a.m. ET.

The strap isn’t going anywhere, folks, although betting Figueiredo (-350) and risking three and a half times your potential return is a little much. There are much better values to be had. Skip the 2-way line and back FIGUEIREDO BY KO/TKO, DQ or SUBMISSION (-145), which is a much better option with a lot less risk.

This one won’t end early as Moreno will be able to take it at least into the second round. So, playing OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-190) is a good bet. Even OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (+100) at even money isn’t a bad small-unit play.

This fight isn’t going to go the distance despite Moreno’s recent past, as Figueiredo gets stoppages. As such, NO (-250): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is a little expensive but worth a shot. If you want slightly less risk, UNDER 4.5 ROUNDS (-225) might be more up your alley.

In addition, predicting Over 2.5 Rounds, and Under 4.5 Rounds means a fight finish in ROUND 3 (+650) makes sense. It’s a nice payday if it comes into fruition.

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