picks and betting tips – Page 43

UFC 258: Maki Pitolo vs. Julian Marquez odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Saturday’s UFC 258 fight between Maki Pitolo and Julian Marquez , with MMA odds, picks, tips and predictions.

In a middleweight bout on Saturday’s main card, Maki Pitolo and Julian Marquez meet at UFC 258 at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. The early prelims kick off at 6:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the prelims on ESPN/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. The main card on pay-per-view is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the UFC 258 odds and lines, with picks and predictions.

Pitolo vs. Marquez: Odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 3:20 a.m. ET.

Fight result (2-way line): Pitolo +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Marquez -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -165 | Under +140)
Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +140 | No -165)

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Pitolo vs. Marquez: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Records: Pitolo 13-7 | Marquez 7-2

Fight result (2-way line or money line)

MARQUEZ (-175) is making his UFC debut. At 6-foot-2, he towers over Pitolo (+145) by four inches. Pitolo – a.k.a. “Coconut Bombz” – has a three-inch reach advantage, is ahead 4.87 to 3.80 in significant strikes landed per minute, and holds a slight edge of 43.63 to 40.86 in significant strikes-accuracy percentage.

While the stats are all well and good, Pitolo is just 1-3 since arriving at the UFC level, falling twice via unanimous decision to Callan Potter (October 2019) and Impa Kasanganay (Aug. 29, 2020), and he was submitted by Darren Stewart (Aug. 8, 2020). The play here is MARQUEZ (-175).

On the 7-way line, I also like MARQUEZ BY DECISION (+260) in his UFC debut. If you’re not feeling either of these fighters but simply want some action, take DECISION (+140) for the fight finish. Regardless of who has their hand raised in the end, you win if the fight goes the distance.

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Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-165) is a good play. Pitolo has gone the distance in two of his previous four fights, both losses, while Marquez is coming off a split-decision setback against Alessio Di Chirico at The Ultimate Fighter 27 finale (July 6, 2018) in his most recent showing. Marquez has been sidelined due to a torn latissimus dorsi in his right shoulder, which derailed his career and even threatened to end it.

You can expect Marquez will be a bit tentative, and looking to conserve energy as he jumps back into the octagon after such a long layoff.

To watch the early prelims and prelims, sign up for ESPN+ now.

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UFC on ESPN+ 48: Alistair Overeem vs. Alexander Volkov odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Saturday’s UFC ESPN+ 48 fight between Alistair Overeem and Alexander Volkov, with MMA odds, picks, tips and predictions.

In a heavyweight bout in Saturday’s main event, Alistair Overeem and Alexander Volkov meet at UFC on ESPN+ 48 at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. The event – also known as UFC Fight Night 184 or UFC Vegas 18 – has the prelims kick off at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card on ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET.

Overeem (47-18) is a veteran who always puts on a good show. This will be his fourth consecutive headliner event. He is coming off a fifth-round KO/TKO against Augusto Sakai Sept. 5, 2020 at this very same venue. In fact, it was his seventh straight fight which ended via KO/TKO, with four wins and three losses during the span. Since arriving at the highest level of MMA back on Dec. 30, 2011 in UFC 141’s main event against Brock Lesnar, 16 of his 19 fights ended by way of KO/TKO, with nine wins via knockout. Overeem has won three times via decision with no losses when the judges were involved, but that’s a rarity. You never need to worry about the submission with Overeem.

Volkov (32-8) enters the octagon with a 4.76 to 3.71 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, although he is slightly behind Overeem at 64.14 to 58.98 in significant strikes-accuracy percentage. Volkov is coming off a KO/TKO of his own, taking care of Walt Harris Oct. 24, 2020 in Round 2 at UFC 254. He has four KO/TKO results (3-1) across his past six bouts overall. This will be a brawl, and there is a more than good chance it ends like so many others for these two, with someone getting knocked out.

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Alistair Overeem vs. Alexander Volkov: Betting odds, predictions and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:41 a.m. ET.

I actually like the veteran OVEREEM (+160) as the better value on the 2-way line. Volkov (-190) is a dangerous fighter, who delivers plenty of punches, but Overeem is a brawler, too. This really can go either way. Why back the moderate favorite with basically the same chances of a win?

As mentioned, there is no reason involving the submission when dealing with Overeem. It’s just not part of his game anymore. Instead of wasting money on the 5-way line, look for the 7-way line and take OVEREEM BY TKO/KO OR DQ (+290) for an even better value.

If you want to play it safe, and not play a particular fighter, just a result, look for KO/TKO/DQ (-200) for the fight finish, and NO (-250): “WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE?”

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UFC on ESPN+ 48: Cory Sandhagen vs. Frankie Edgar odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Saturday’s UFC ESPN+ 48 fight between Cory Sandhagen and Frankie Edgar, with MMA odds, picks, tips and predictions.

In a bantamweight bout on Saturday’s main card, Cory Sandhagen and Frankie Edgar meet at UFC on ESPN+ 48 at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. The event – also known as UFC Fight Night 184 or UFC Vegas 18 – has the prelims kick off at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card on ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET.

Sandhagen (13-2) steps into the octagon with a five-inch height and two-inch reach advantage over his counterpart. He also arrives with a big 6.88 to 3.70 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, and he leads 48.30 to 39.78 in significant strikes-accuracy percentage, too.

Edgar (23-8-1) will be trying to avoid the big blows and getting roped into an upright brawl. He’d rather get the fight to the canvas where he holds a 2.28 to 1.07 takedown average. “The Answer” lost a title fight to Max Holloway at UFC 240 by unanimous decision July 27, 2019. He followed that up with a Round 1 KO/TKO loss to Chan Sung Jang Dec. 21, 2019, and in his most recent fight, he rebounded with a split-decision win over Pedro Munhoz Aug. 22, 2020. Edgar is at a bit of a crossroads, as a win gets him back in the title hunt, but a loss means it could be years before another potential shot.

Sandhagen was stunned in Round 1 at UFC 250 by Aljamain Sterling, submitting in just 88 seconds June 6, 2020. He bounced back with a KO/TKO over Marlon Moraes Oct. 10, 2020, and he is back on the rise toward a potential title shot himself.

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Cory Sandhagen vs. Frankie Edgar: Betting odds, predictions and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:12 a.m. ET.

Sandhagen (-375) is an overwhelming favorite over Edgar (+300) on the 2-way line. However, you cannot risk nearly four times your potential return against a proud veteran like Edgar. Get more specific instead.

Look to SANDHAGEN BY DECISION (+120) in this one. Edgar has dropped two of the past three fights, but three of his past four outings have gone the distance, and six of his past 10 have needed the help of the judges to determine an outcome. If you don’t want to risk it and pick a winner, but still want action, take YES (-160): “WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE?”

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UFC on ESPN+ 48: Michael Johnson vs. Clay Guida odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Saturday’s UFC ESPN+ 48 fight between Michael Johnson and Clay Guida, with MMA odds, picks, tips and predictions.

In a lightweight bout on Saturday’s main card, Michael Johnson and Clay Guida meet at UFC on ESPN+ 48 at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. The event – also known as UFC Fight Night 184 or UFC Vegas 18 – has the prelims kick off at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card on ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET.

Johnson (20-16) and Guida (35-17) have been bumped to the main card now that Marion Reneau tested positive for COVID-19, postponing her fight with Macy Chiasson to Feb. 27.

Johnson enters on a three-bout losing skid, including his last setback in a Round 2 submission to Thiago Moises May 13, 2020. He has lost by submission, majority decision and KO/TKO during the skid. He has dropped six of his past eight bouts, and eight of his past 11 since Feb. 22, 2015. If he falls in this one, it might be the end of the line.

Guida is also on a slide, dropping two straight to Bobby Green via unanimous decision and Jim Miller by way of submission. He has been somewhat more effective lately, however, winning three of the past six.

Guida will be looking to get this one to the mat quickly. He has a 3.37 to 0.51 takedown average lead, and a 0.67 to 0.06 submission-average advantage. Johnson has a 3.5-inch reach advantage, and he’d like to keep the fight toe-to-toe and get into a brawl. He has a 4.23 to 2.41 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, while leading 38.02 to 33.76 in significant strikes-accuracy percentage.

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Michael Johnson vs. Clay Guida: Betting odds, predictions and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:50 a.m. ET.

The way Johnson (-225) is going, play GUIDA (+175) on the 2-way line as he has been the steadier fighter lately. While Johnson continues to say he has designs on a title run, he looks more to be in the twilight of his career and just one fight away from potentially hanging it up. Playing GUIDA BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (+700) is worth a small-unit play, too, as you can really build your bankroll if he scores a stoppage. Although I think the better play is GUIDA ON POINTS (+275).

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UFC on ESPN+ 48: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Manel Kape odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Saturday’s UFC ESPN+ 48 fight between Alexandre Pantoja and Manel Kape, with MMA odds, picks, tips and predictions.

In a flyweight bout on Saturday’s main card, Alexandre Pantoja and Manel Kape meet at UFC on ESPN+ 48 at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. The event – also known as UFC Fight Night 184 or UFC Vegas 18 – has the prelims kick off at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card on ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET.

Pantoja (22-5) is looking to bounce back after a unanimous-decision setback against Askar Askarov July 18, 2020. Pantoja has lost two of his past three, although his other loss was to champ Deiveson Figueiredo at UFC 240, also by UD. Three of Pantoja’s past five bouts, all victories, have come by way of stoppage, including two KO/TKOs and one submission against Yuta “Ulka” Sasaki. His go-to move, when he hits the canvas, has been the rear-naked choke.

Kape (15-4) makes his UFC debut. He hasn’t appeared in the octagon since Dec. 31, 2019 when he knocked out Kai Asakura at Rizin FF: Rizin Fighting Federation 20. Kape was scheduled to make his first appearance with the company at UFC 252, but Rogerio Bontorin was forced to pull out due to injury and a new opponent wasn’t found. Kape then suffered ligament damage to his ankle during training, costing him more time. The southpaw enters with three straight knockout wins, and 16 of his 19 career professional bouts have finished inside the distance. This will obviously be the biggest test for “Starboy,” who represents Team Thailand.

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Alexandre Pantoja vs. Manel Kape: Betting odds, predictions and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:18 a.m. ET.

PANTOJA (-120) is the more polished fighter, and he’ll slow Kape’s roll a bit. He has been popping off about “smashing” Figueiredo, but he hasn’t earned that right to talk without having faced anybody at the UFC level yet. Pantoja is a formidable force, and a solid value on the 2-way line.

As long as Pantoja can avoid the big blow and get the fight to the canvas quickly, he should be able to deal Kape a loss in his UFC debut. Play PANTOJA BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (+180) on the 5-way line, and go with NO (-165): “WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? for an added bonus.

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UFC on ESPN+ 48: Diego Ferreira vs. Beneil Dariush odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN+ 48 fight between Diego Ferreira and Beneil Dariush, with MMA odds, picks, tips and predictions.

In a lightweight bout on Saturday’s main card, Diego Ferreira and Beneil Dariush meet at UFC on ESPN+ 48 at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. The event – also known as UFC Fight Night 184 or UFC Vegas 18 – has the prelims kick off at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card on ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET.

Ferreira (17-2) puts his solid record on the line against the UFC veteran Dariush (19-4-1) in an intriguing fight early on the main card.

Ferreira checks in with a two-inch reach advantage, while leading 5.07 to 3.98 in significant strikes landed per minute. However, the Iranian fighter Dariush is much more pinpoint, posting a 49.56 significant strikes-accuracy percentage to just 36.56 for Ferreira. Dariush is slightly better on the ground numbers, too, ahead 1.75 to 1.04 in takedown average and 32.73 to 27.27 in takedown-accuracy percentage.

Ferreira is unbeaten across his past six fights, including a Round 2 submission against Anthony Pettis at UFC 246 Jan. 18, 2020 in his last bout. Three of his past six fights and six of his last 10 at the UFC level have finished inside the distance.

The southpaw Dariush is also on a roll, winning five straight bouts. In his most recent fight, he claimed a Round 1 KO/TKO against Scott Holtzman in this very same facility Aug. 8, 2020. He has had four straight fights finish inside the distance, including two KO/TKO wins and a pair of victories via submission.

Place your legal, online UFC on ESPN+ 48 sports bets in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV at BetMGM, the King of Sportsbooks. New customer offer. Terms and conditions apply. Bet now!

Diego Ferreira vs. Beneil Dariush: Betting odds, predictions and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 3:13 a.m. ET.

This is going to be a great bout between two red-hot fighters to kick off the main card. I like DARIUSH (+100) at even money to get it done on the 2-way line. He is just a nicer value. In addition, DARIUSH BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (+250) on the 5-way line is even more attractive. As mentioned above, he has four straight finish wins and he can do it a number of ways, so don’t go to the 7-way line and try and get too pinpoint. He isn’t a one-track fighter.

In addition, if you’re not feeling Dariush, but want action on the fight still, take NO (-105): “WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE?” Both of these fights have a history of plenty of stoppages.

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UFC on ESPN+ 48: Cody Stamann vs. Askar Askar odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Saturday’s UFC ESPN+ 48 fight between Cody Stamann and Askar Askar, with MMA odds, picks, tips and predictions.

In a featherweight bout on Saturday’s main card, Cody Stamann and Askar Askar meet at UFC on ESPN+ 48 at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. The event – also known as UFC Fight Night 184 or UFC Vegas 18 – has the prelims kick off at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card on ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET.

Stamann (19-3-1) was expected to face Andre Ewell, who was pulled from the card due to a positive COVID-19 test, according to his management. Ewell is reportedly asymptomatic and quarantining in Las Vegas. He tested negative twice since a positive test but was removed as a precaution. So, Askar (11-1) steps in on short notice.

Stamann – a.k.a. “The Spartan” – lost by unanimous decision last time out to Jimmie Rivera July 15, 2020. Stamann has a pair of losses and a draw across his past five outings, and he has gone the distance in each of his past four events and seven of the previous eight bouts overall.

Askar will be making his UFC debut. He suffered a KO/TKO loss Feb 7, 2020, to Saidyokub Kakhramonov at HFC 42: Hoosier Fight Club 42 but rebounded with a unanimous decision victory over Kevin Wirth last time out at LFA 92 in main event Oct. 2, 2020. In Askar’s 12 career professional bouts, he has had six end by way of KO/TKO (5-1) with one submission victory and five fights going the distance.

Place your legal, online UFC on ESPN+ 48 sports bets in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV at BetMGM, the King of Sportsbooks. New customer offer. Terms and conditions apply. Bet now!

Cody Stamann vs. Askar Askar: Betting odds, predictions and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 2:27 a.m. ET.

Stamann (-500) will cost you five times your potential return, so you can’t play him on the 2-way line vs. Askar (+360). Instead, look to the method of victory on the 5-way line and take STAMANN BY DECISION (-140). His fights rarely end early, so look for the judges to get involved here. That’s good news for Stamann bettors as he is the more polished fighter, who will wow the judges with his technical ability.

If you don’t quite trust Stamann to win against the newcomer but want action, take YES (-200): “WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE?” It’s a very good bet in a Stamann event, even when fighting a newcomer on short notice.

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UFC 257: Conor McGregor vs. Dustin Poirier odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Saturday’s UFC 257 fight between Conor McGregor and Dustin Poirier, with MMA betting odds, picks, tips and predictions.

In a lightweight bout in Saturday’s main event, Dustin Poirier and Conor McGregor meet at UFC 257 at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The early prelims and prelims kick off at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, followed by the main card on Pay-Per-View at 10 p.m. ET.

McGregor (22-4) – a.k.a. “The Notorious” – returns to the octagon for the first time in more than a calendar year since his first-round KO/TKO of Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone at UFC 246 Jan. 18, 2020. That win took just 40 seconds, as he rebounded from an Oct. 6, 2018, submission loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov. The 32-year-old McGregor is just 3-2 across his five past bouts, and 3-3 if you include his foray into the boxing world. But he has fought the best of the division, and a loss to Nate Diaz, which he avenged at UFC 202, and a setback to Khabib, are certainly nothing to be embarrassed about.

Poirier would like to close the mouth of McGregor, while polishing his star and getting back in position for another title shot against Khabib. “The Diamond” cannot afford a setback if he wants to get back to the top of the division. While two of his past three fights have ended up going the distance, four of his past six have finished via stoppage, including three KO/TKO wins and one submission loss to Khabib for the title at UFC 242 Sept. 7, 2019.

The Brazilian jiu-jitsu fighter Poirier has a two-inch disadvantage in reach, but is actually slightly ahead of McGregor in significant strikes landed per minute at 5.57 to 5.43, and 50.42 to 49.36 in significant strikes-accuracy percentage. In 32 career pro bouts, Poirier has had 23 of his fights end via stoppage, going 13-2 via KO/TKO and 6-2 by way of submission.

McGregor has never been knocked out, going 19-0 via KO/TKO in 26 career pro bouts. However, his ground game is his Achilles’ heel as he’s 1-4 via submission, including his most recent setbacks to Khabib and Diaz. You can bet going to the canvas early is Poirier’s top strategy.

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McGregor vs. Poirier: Betting odds, predictions and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:35 a.m. ET.

McGregor is such a polarizing figure. There are fans who love him, and there are people who absolutely detest him. The latter are going to be disappointed, because McGregor (-300) will pick up the win over Poirier in this one. However, he is too expensive on the 2-way line, so get more specific.

Take MCGREGOR BY KO/TKO OR DQ (-190) on the 7-way line, which is still a little expensive, but worth the price. He’ll get it done, setting up a potential title bout against Khabib again, which will be what most UFC fans will open up their wallets to see.

In addition, taking UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-185) is a little pricey but also worth the risk. Eight of The Notorious’ past 10 fights have each cashed in Round 1 or 2. As such, playing MCGREGOR IN ROUND 1 (+160) or MCGREGOR IN ROUND 2 (+375) is the way to go. Normally I select a two-round block, but there is no value including Round 1 and another round, as that’s a losing proposition. I actually like the value of McGregor in Round 2 much better.

To watch the early prelims and prelims, sign up for ESPN+ now.

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UFC 257: Dan Hooker vs. Michael Chandler odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Saturday’s UFC 257 fight between Dan Hooker and Michael Chandler, with MMA betting odds, picks, tips and predictions.

In a lightweight bout on Saturday’s main card, Dan Hooker and Michael Chandler meet at UFC 257 at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The early prelims and prelims kick off at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, followed by the main card on Pay-Per-View at 10 p.m. ET.

Hooker (20-9) heads into this match towering four inches over his counterpart, and he has a four-inch reach advantage, too. In addition, the switch stance Kiwi holds a 4.98 to 4.08 significant strikes landed per minute advantage with a slight lead in significant strikes-accuracy percentage at 48.16 to 47.04.

Chandler (21-5) will be trying to avoid a toe-to-toe battle in what will be his debut under the UFC banner. He will try to get this one to the mat as quickly as possible. He has a 2.57 to 0.74 takedown average and 41.74 to 34.78 takedown-accuracy advantage over Hooker, and Chandler leads 1.54 to 0.28 in takedown average, too, doing most of his damage in Bellator.

Hooker is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Dustin Poirier in the main event June 27, 2020, at the UFC’s APEX Facility. The loss snapped a three-bout win streak. Each of Hooker’s past three fights have ended up going the distance.

Chandler posted back-to-back knockouts against Sidney Outlaw and Benson Henderson prior to leaving for the UFC. The 34-year-old still has plenty left in the tank, and he is looking to make an immediate splash in the UFC by taking out one of the top contenders in the division.

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Hooker vs. Chandler: Betting odds, predictions and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:21 a.m. ET.

All eyes will be on CHANDLER (+125), as he steps up from Bellator to the UFC, and fights what he calls one of the scariest lightweights in the company. The American will make an immediate splash with a stoppage in his first UFC bout, so grab him at plus-money on the 2-way line.

Hooker – a.k.a. “The Hangman” – will be looking to keep Chandler at a distance and upright, using his reach advantage to try and knock out the newcomer to the division. I also like CHANDLER BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (+360) with a small-unit play to more than triple up. In addition, playing NO (-120): “WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE?” is also a good wager. UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (+100) will also work at even money.

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UFC 257: Marina Rodriguez vs. Amanda Ribas odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Saturday’s UFC 257 fight between Marina Rodriguez vs. Amanda Ribas, with MMA betting odds, picks, tips and predictions.

In a women’s strawweight bout on Saturday’s main card, Marina Rodriguez and Amanda Ribas meet at UFC 257 at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The early prelims and prelims kick off at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, followed by the main card on Pay-Per-View at 10 p.m. ET.

Rodriguez (12-1-2) is looking for her first victory since Aug. 10, 2019, a unanimous-decision win over Tecia Torres. Rodriguez fought to a draw against Cynthia Calvillo Dec. 7, 2019, and lost a tough split-decision against Carla Esparza July 25, 2020, in her most recent bout. Each of her past five fights have ended up going the distance, and just one of her past nine pro bouts have ended inside the distance.

Ribas (10-1) can handle herself going toe-to-toe with any fighter, but she is especially strong in the ground game. She enters with a 2.28 to 0.38 takedown-average advantage over Rodriguez, and 54.55 to 33.33 takedown-accuracy percentage. She also leads 1.90 to 0.19 in submission average, so needless to say, she’ll be trying to get to the ground and pound as quickly as possible.

Ribas made rather quick work of Paige VanZant last time out, winning via submission in Round 1 at UFC 251 July 11, 2020, sending VanZant off to the Bare Knuckle Fighting Championship and out of UFC.

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Rodriguez vs. Ribas: Betting odds, predictions and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 3:15 p.m. ET.

Ribas (-350) is a heavy favorite on the 2-way line over Rodriguez (+260), but you can’t risk three and a half times your potential return. Let’s get specific instead.

RIBAS BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (+240) is a better value, and you’re a winner as long as she doesn’t win on points, or lose obviously. It wouldn’t be a bad idea to single out RIBAS BY SUBMISSION (+310) for a small-unit bet, too, as she is particularly good on the canvas and you have a chance to triple up.

I also think that despite the fact just one of Rodriguez’s past nine bouts have ended inside the distance, NO (+160): “WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE?” is a good value, again, based on Ribas’ ground game.

To watch the early prelims and prelims, sign up for ESPN+ now.

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