The Michigan State Spartans (19-9, 11-6 Big Ten) make a Saturday trip to College Park, Md., to take on the Maryland Terrapins (23-5, 13-4). We analyze the Michigan State-Maryland odds and betting lines, with college basketball betting advice and tips around this matchup.
Michigan State at Maryland: Three things you need to know
1. Eighth-ranked (USA Today Sports Coaches Poll) Maryland heads into Saturday’s contest with a two-game lead (over MSU and three other contenders) in the Big Ten standings. The Terrapins are coming off two conference road games, a loss at Ohio State and a 74-73 win at Minnesota. On Feb. 15 the Terps defeated the Spartans, 67-60, in East Lansing. Maryland held Michigan State to 60 points on a 41.8% mark from the field.
2. No. 24 Michigan State has played just twice since that home loss to Maryland on Feb. 15. MSU won both games; the second — a home game against No. 17 Iowa — was a win pulled out in the final five minutes after trailing the Hawkeyes for most of the game. The lead edge of the Spartan sword is the team’s defense. Michigan State ranks as a top-10 in the nation in a half-dozen analytics stats (such as effective field-goal defense, efficiency allowed, etc.) But a game-by-game look at the Spartans reveals a defense which saw its best days from mid-December to late-January.
3. Maryland is 15-0 at home this season but just 8-7 against the number. MSU has dropped two recent Big Ten road Saturday games (Wisconsin, Michigan). Away from East Lansing, the Spartans are 3-11 against the spread. In avenging earlier home losses, MSU is 1-2 ATS.
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Michigan State at Maryland: Odds, betting lines and picks
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:45 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Maryland 68, Michigan State 66
Moneyline (ML)
The line here is Michigan State (+115) and Maryland (-139). This is a muddy play with the Spartans having a lot to play for and being well-rested. When having similar rest intervals earlier in the season (one game over the last eight days), MSU has been sharp.
WILL RESPECT THE LINE AND PASS.
Against the Spread (ATS)
The Spartans have disappointed as a favorite this season, but they have the underdog label in Saturday’s contest. The Big Ten is a challenging league on these types of plays, and this one has an added layer or two of gray area.
WILL PASS ON MICHIGAN STATE +2.5 (-115).
Over/Under (O/U)
The Under is: 12-9 when Maryland is favored in a game … 16-11 in all MSU games … 6-0 in Maryland Saturday games.
The analytics side of this one likes a lower number. Defensively, these two teams yield 126.7 PPG, and 127 was the total in meeting No. 1. WILL PLAY THE UNDER 138.5 (-115).
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