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Packers Wire staff predictions: Updated final record projection

Predictions for the Packers’ final record in 2019 after 10 weeks and the bye week.

The Green Bay Packers are 8-2 and enjoying their week off in Week 11. Matt LaFleur’s team will come out of the bye with a trip to San Francisco for a primetime game with huge playoff implications, kicking off a six-game stretch that will determine whether or not the Packers are a postseason participant in 2019.

Here are the staff’s updated predictions for the team’s final record:

Zach Kruse: 12-4

The Packers exceeded all expectations during the first 10 games. Brian Gutekunst added difference-makers on defense, and Matt LaFleur has rejuvenated Aaron Rodgers and the offense with a creative and modern scheme. Now, the Packers must navigate a tricky stretch to end the season, which includes four games away from home and three straight against the NFC North to finish the year. There’s a big opportunity to not only win the division, but also secure a first-round bye and guarantee a home game in the Divisional Round. At worst, the Packers should finish 11-5. Winning five of the last six and getting to 13-3 would be huge. The guess here is that the Packers finish right in between. Beating the Giants and Redskins and going 2-2 against the other four (at 49ers, vs. Bears, at Vikings, at Lions) would have to be considered a success.

Jack Wepfer: 12-4

At the beginning of the year, I thought this team’s floor was 7-9 and its ceiling 12-4. With an 8-2 start, it’s safe to say it’s playing much closer to its ceiling than we all might’ve expected. In the final six games on the schedule, the Giants and Redskins will get them to 10 wins. I think they’ll also take care of the Bears at home, which gets them to 11. The three challenge spots are next week in San Francisco, Week 16 at Minnesota and Week 17 at Detroit. My guess is they split with the Vikings but it’s hard to see them losing back to back games while in the playoff hunt. They finish 12-4 and have a good shot at a first-round bye.

Marty Kauffman: 12-4

The Packers are 8-2 and currently second in the NFC, with everything in front of them. The Packers have a very favorable schedule based on opponents’ record to end the season, but they have two tough road games at San Francisco and Minnesota that will be key games down the stretch and could be the two most likely losses to expect, at least on paper. The offense, while not as lethal as the 2011 and 2014 teams, is much different with running backs Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams being a main focus of the offense, but Aaron Rodgers is no game manager. With Davante Adams back and Marquez Valdes-Scantling getting healthy, the passing game should improve. After a hot start to the season, the defense has not been as dominant between the 20’s but inside the red zone, Green Bay’s defense has been dominant at preventing touchdowns. If the defense can tighten up on allowing big yardage plays, still create turnovers and shorten drives, this Packers team has a chance for a deep run.

Anthony Nash: 11-5

I’d like to preface this by saying that I think a 12-4 record is very achievable for the Packers this season. However, the fact that they not only close out many of their final games on the road but against division rivals as well, leads me to predict an extra loss. After a tremendous start to the year, the Packers defense has come back down to Earth, and that could hurt them against teams like the 49ers and Vikings, especially on the road. Thankfully, the Packers seem to have found a rhythm on offense, and with the talent at nearly every position (on both sides of the ball) to make a run, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Green Bay end up with a first-round bye and a home playoff game when all is said and done.

Nolan Stracke: 12-4

The Packers offense came alive after a slow start to 2019, with Aaron Jones enjoying a career year in Matt LaFleur’s system. The defense has cooled down and struggles with big plays, but the team has done enough to go into the bye week with an 8-2 record and sitting at first place in the NFC North. The 2019 Packers have the talent and playmakers to make a deep playoff run, but the difference between home-field advantage and a road trip could be a couple losses. I’m not sure if they’ll be able to overtake the 49ers next week and I feel the gauntlet of three divisional games at the end of the season will be far from a walk in the park. While 14-2 is a hopeful prediction, 12-4 is more realistic.

Joe Kipp: 13-3

It’s hard to imagine the Packers would even have the possibility of reaching 13 wins prior to the start of the season, but here we are. Standing at 8-2, the Packers are in the driver’s seat in the NFC North, controlling their own destiny for the No. 1 overall seed and a first-round bye in the playoffs. With the way they’re currently playing, I’d expect the Packers to reach at least 12 wins, but I’m predicting a 13-3 finish. Their remaining opponents include the 49ers, Giants, Redskins, Bears, Vikings and Lions. I expect them to split the series between San Fransisco and Minnesota, with relatively easy wins over New York and Washington. The two biggest wild cards are Chicago and Detroit. Matthew Stafford could be back by Week 17 for the Lions, and you can never count out the Bears in a divisional rivalry matchup. All of that said, I truly believe the Packers are the best team in the NFC at the moment, and based on what we know now a 13-3 record is very feasible.

Broncos blow chance to help Packers in NFC North race

The Broncos nearly gifted the Packers an early Christmas present on Sunday against the Vikings.

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The Denver Broncos led the Minnesota Vikings by a 20-0 score at halftime but failed to hold on during Sunday’s trip to U.S. Bank Stadium, losing 27-23 and blowing a chance to help the Green Bay Packers in the NFC North race.

The Vikings got three touchdown passes from Kirk Cousins and late stop in the red zone to escape what would have been a huge upset.

A Broncos had a chance to deliver an early Christmas present for the Packers. Instead, Mike Zimmer’s team now enters the bye week with an 8-3 record, setting up a terrific race in the division over the final month and a half.

The current standings:

1. Packers (8-2)
2. Vikings (8-3)
3. Bears (4-5)*
4. Lions (3-6-1)

* Play Los Angeles Rams on “Sunday Night Football”

The Packers are on a bye in Week 11 but will travel to San Francisco to play the 49ers next Sunday night. The Vikings have a bye in Week 12 but have to go to Seattle to play the Seahawks in Week 13.

The Packers and Vikings play each other on Dec. 23 in Minnesota.

Remaining schedules for the two teams:

Packers: at San Francisco 49ers, at New York Giants, vs. Washington Redskins, vs. Chicago Bears, at Minnesota Vikings, at Detroit Lions

Vikings: at Seattle Seahawks, vs. Detroit Lions, at Los Angeles Chargers, vs. Green Bay Packers, vs. Chicago Bears

The Packers play four of their final six games on the road, while the Vikings have three of their final five at home.

The Packers beat the Vikings in Week 2, providing a head-to-head tiebreaker entering the Week 16 matchup. Another aspect to keep in mind: The Packers currently have a perfect 3-0 record in the division, while the Vikings are 1-2. Matt LaFleur’s team finishes with three straight games against the NFC North.

As of the conclusion of the early games on Sunday, the NFC North and NFC West are the only two divisions in football with two teams with at least eight wins.

Packers WR Davante Adams is long overdue for a touchdown

Amazingly, Packers WR Davante Adams doesn’t have a touchdown yet in 2019.

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One of the NFL’s most prolific touchdown-catching wide receivers is long overdue for his first touchdown catch of the 2019 season.

It won’t happen this week. Davante Adams and the Green Bay Packers are on a bye in Week 11.

But it’s hard to believe Adams, who caught 36 touchdown passes between 2016-18, still doesn’t have a touchdown catch during the 2019 season.

Consider this: Adams is one of only four wide receivers with at least 40 targets and no touchdown catches this season, joining Demaryius Thomas, Mike Williams and Robert Woods.

In almost every other way, Adams is having a terrific season. He’s averaging 13.8 yards per catch and 9.4 yards per target while catching 68.4 percent of his targets, all career highs. He has 28 first downs on 39 catches, good for a first-down percentage of 71.7.

Pro Football Focus has Adams rated as the sixth-best overall receiver in the NFL after 10 games.

Somehow, he’s 0-for-6 catching touchdown passes in games played this season. His last touchdown catch was a game-winning score against the New York Jets in Week 16 of last season.

Touchdown production is generally unpredictable, but this is uncharted territory for Adams, a two-time Pro Bowler.

Between 2016 and 2018, Adams never had anything more than a two-game streak without a touchdown catch. He produced 28 total games over those three seasons with at least one touchdown, the most in the NFL.

Adams missed four games with a turf toe injury and has otherwise taken a backseat in the scoring area to running backs Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams, who have 20 total scores this season.

It’s possible teams will start keying on the running backs over the final six games of the season, and Adams – a dominant red-zone receiver – could be the perfect counterpunch for playcaller Matt LaFleur. The bye week might provide an opportunity for LaFleur to devise a few new ways of getting the ball to No. 17 to finish drives.

To his credit, Adams doesn’t really care about scoring touchdowns. Last Sunday against the Carolina Panthers, Jones scored three times on the ground to power a 24-16 win.

“Hey, man, if we are 8-2 with Aaron Jones scoring 82 touchdowns, then that’s fine. I love it. I love seeing him go over there,” Adams said Sunday in the locker room. “I think I get in better shape chasing his ass down, going over to the end zone to find him every time, so it’s great, man. Happy about it.”

When will Adams’ first touchdown arrive? The Packers travel next week to San Francisco, providing a homecoming of sorts for Adams, who grew up in the area and went to college at Fresno State.

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Former Packers S Josh Jones is finally on a 53-man roster

The Cowboys promoted Jones, a second-round pick of the Packers in 2017, to the team’s 53-man roster.

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Former Green Bay Packers defensive back Josh Jones, a second-round pick of the team in 2017, has finally secured a spot on another team’s 53-man roster.

The Dallas Cowboys announced the promotion of Jones from the practice squad to the team’s active roster on Saturday.

The Packers released Jones with a non-football illness designation on Aug. 25. Almost a month and a half later, he was signed to the Cowboys’ practice squad on Oct. 2.

Now, after another month and a half, Jones is back on a 53-man roster. He’ll help the Cowboys’ depth at safety, a position stung by injury recently.

Jones played in 29 games and made 12 starts for the Packers between 2017-18 but struggled to find a legitimate role and gradually found himself phased out of Mike Pettine’s defense. His size, athleticism and positional versatility never materialized into tangible value in Green Bay.

Jones, who will wear No. 26, should be available for the Cowboys on Sunday against the Detroit Lions, a team he played four different times as a member of the Packers.

Pettine’s defense moved forward at safety with rookie Darnell Savage and free-agent addition Adrian Amos, with contributions also coming from Raven Greene (now on IR), cornerback converts Will Redmond and Chandon Sullivan and recently activated defensive back Ibraheim Campbell.

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Packers rookie Elgton Jenkins has been a pass-protecting star

The Packers rookie LG hasn’t allowed a sack or a quarterback hit so far in 2019.

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Green Bay Packers rookie guard Elgton Jenkins didn’t allow a single sack or quarterback hit during the preseason. The second-round pick has extended that impressive streak well into the regular season.

Through his first eight games as a starter at left guard, Jenkins still hasn’t allowed a quarterback hit or sack. In fact, he’s the only Packers starting offensive lineman to not allow a sack this season.

According to Pro Football Focus, Jenkins has played 536 total snaps, including 349 as a pass blocker, and he’s allowed only 10 total pressures.

One play against the Carolina Panthers last Sunday stands out as a testament of his pass-blocking skills. It came in a high-leverage spot in the first quarter. Beat off the snap, Jenkins recovered and walled off the inside rusher, passed him on to left tackle David Bakhtiari as the two rushers attempted a combination stunt and then picked up the edge rusher swooping in, allowing Aaron Rodgers to buy time in the pocket and find Allen Lazard for a completion on third down.

It was the kind of high-difficulty play that catches the eye of an offensive line coach.

“He’s a really intelligent guy, very football smart,” Packers offensive line coach Adam Stenavich said, via the team’s official site. “He’s confident because he can go out there and he knows what to do, and he knows who to block so he can play fast. That’s the biggest thing for rookies is figuring out what to do, so when they do it they can do at a high level. He’s been able to do that almost from Day 1.”

As noted by Ross Uglem of Packer Report, Jenkins is the only guard in the NFL to play at least 500 snaps this season and not allow a sack or quarterback hit.

A center in college, Jenkins has quickly adapted to playing guard at the NFL level. He took over for injured starter Lane Taylor in Week 3, and the offensive line hasn’t missed a beat. In fact, from a pass protection standpoint, the group almost certainly improved.

The beauty in Jenkins’ play has been the consistency. He looked like he belonged right away. Inserted into the game as a spot player in Week 2, Jenkins handled his business against the terrific front of the Minnesota Vikings, and his comfort level – especially in the run game – has improved every game since.

The Packers had flashier options on the board at No. 44 overall in the second round, but credit GM Brian Gutekunst for sticking to his board and grabbing an immediate above-average starter at guard. If Jenkins continues to pass protect as well as he has during his rookie season, Pro Bowls (plural) are in his future.

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Packers lead NFL in total games without a turnover in 2019

The Packers have done a terrific job protecting the football during the 2019 season.

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The Green Bay Packers entered the bye week on a four-game streak without a turnover, and Matt LaFleur’s team now leads the NFL with seven games without a turnover in 2019.

The Packers are 6-1 when they don’t turn the ball over this season. They rank third in the NFL in total giveaways (7) and second in turnover differential (+9), two highly important metrics for LaFleur.

“It goes back to our players. They do a great job protecting the football,” LaFleur told Packers.com. “Aaron does a great job in decision making. The offensive line does a great job blocking in the run and the pass.”

The Packers’ last turnover was an interception of Aaron Rodgers off a drop from Darrius Shepherd in the fourth quarter of the team’s win over the Detroit Lions on Oct. 14.

LaFleur’s team got through games against the Oakland Raiders, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers and Carolina Panthers without a single giveaway. The Packers and Raiders were the only teams without a turnover between Weeks 7-10, although the Raiders only played three games.

Through 10 games, Rodgers has thrown two interceptions and lost two fumbles, while Shepherd, Aaron Jones and Geronimo Allison have each lost one fumble.

The Packers went 2-1 in their three games with a turnover. They are one of six teams with a winning record in games with at least two turnovers. Overall, NFL teams are 32-81-1 when they have two or more turnovers in a game.

However, NFL teams are 60-24 in games when they don’t have a turnover this season.

Leaders in games without a turnover in 2019:

1. Packers (7, 6-1)
2. Cardinals (6, 3-3)
3. Vikings (5, 4-1)
4. Bills (4, 3-1)
4. Titans (4, 2-2)
4. Raiders (4, 3-1)
4. Ravens (4, 3-1)
4. Redskins (4, 1-3)

How productive have Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams been in 2019?

The Packers RB duo is on pace to replicate what LaDainian Tomlinson produced during an MVP season in 2006.

Green Bay Packers coach Matt LaFleur has turned the combination of Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams into a reincarnation of one of the most productive individual running back seasons of all-time.

Through 10 games, Jones and Williams have combined to produce 1,400 total yards and 20 total touchdowns on 260 total touches. At their current pace, they’ll create 2,240 total yards and 32 total touchdowns on 416 touches in 2019.

Those extrapolated numbers compare favorably to what Chargers running back LaDainian Tomlinson produced during an MVP season in 2006.

That year, Tomlinson turned his 404 touches into 2,323 total yards and 31 touchdowns.

Obviously, this is comparing the efforts of two players to one. What Tomlinson accomplished on his own in 2006 is nothing short of incredible. But the yards-per-touch (5.4 for Jones and Williams, 5.8 for Tomlinson) and touchdown percentage (7.7 for Jones and Williams, 7.7 for Tomlinson) are at least comparable, providing a layer of context to how great Jones and Williams have been as dual-threat players in LaFleur’s offense in 2019.

Jones is tied for the NFL lead in rushing touchdowns (11) and total touchdowns (14), while Williams leads the Packers in receiving touchdowns (5). Together, they are averaging 4.4 yards per carry and 8.7 yards per catch, while scoring a touchdown once every 13 touches.

“I feel like we have a different type of squad offensively this year where we have been running the ball effectively and we realize how important Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams are to our attack and we’re finding ways to get them the ball in the backfield and out in space, and they’ve been a big part of our success,” quarterback Aaron Rodgers said. 

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Packers CB Tramon Williams nominated for 2019 Art Rooney Sportsmanship Award

For the second straight year, Tramon Williams is the Packers’ nominee for the Art Rooney Sportsmanship Award.

The Green Bay Packers announced veteran cornerback Tramon Williams as the team’s nominee for the Art Rooney Sportsmanship Award for the second straight year.

All 32 NFL teams nominate one player. The field will be narrowed down to eight finalists – four from the NFC and four in the AFC – by a panel of four former NFL players next month.

Last year, Williams made the final eight but lost out to New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees.

The award was first established in 2014. Created in honor of Steelers owner and Pro Football Hall of Famer Art Rooney, the award is designed to recognize players around the league who exemplify outstanding sportsmanship on the field.

A winner will be selected from the finalist by players and revealed the night before the Super Bowl.

Williams, now 36, has played in all 10 games for the Packers this season, producing four pass breakups and an interception.

The past five winners: Brees (2018), Panthers LB Luke Kuechly (2017), Colts RB Frank Gore (2016), Raiders DB Charles Woodson (2015), Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald (2014)

The Packers’ past nominees: WR Jordy Nelson (2014), OLB Julius Peppers (2015), Peppers (2016), S Morgan Burnett (2017), Williams (2018), Williams (2019)

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Bye week comes at a good time for Packers WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling

The week off should give MVS a chance to get healthy before the Packers embark on a playoff push over the final 6 games of 2019.

The bye week came at an ideal time for Green Bay Packers receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who battled through injury to catch just one pass for four yards over the team’s last three games.

Both coach Matt LaFleur and receivers coach Alvis Whitted recently explained how injuries suffered during the Packers’ win over the Detroit Lions have affected Valdes-Scantling over the last month.

The Packers’ second-year receiver hurt both his knee and ankle in the first half against the Lions on Oct. 14. He eventually returned to that game, and he’s played through the injuries each of the last four games.

LaFleur said Monday the issues have “definitely slowed him down,” while Whitted admitted Valdes-Scantling is still learning how to play through an injury.

“Quite honestly, he’s been battling through some injuries,” Whitted said, via Matt Schneidman of The Athletic. “It’s the first time he’s had to go through some adversity like that as a player. I think it’s good for him to understand that this is the National Football League and you’re going to go through adversity as far as playing through stuff.”

Valdes-Scantling played a season-low 11 snaps during Sunday’s win over the Carolina Panthers. He’s been on the field for roughly 50 percent of offensive snaps the last four games, compared to over 80 percent the first six games.

Although the Packers haven’t listed Valdes-Scantling on the final injury report the last two weeks, a chance to rest up during the bye week could give the young receiver a real chance to get closer to 100 percent for the final stretch run of the 2019 season.

Over 10 games, Valdes-Scantling has 22 catches on 42 targets for 420 yards and two touchdowns. The offense could use more of his deep speed and big-play ability during the final six games.

LaFleur said the Packers will take a closer look at how they’re using Valdes-Scantling during the self-scout portion of the bye week.

“We also have to look critically at ourselves and what we’re asking him to do and making sure we’re putting him in position to get some of those balls,” LaFleur said. “He does have a great talent. He’s a guy that, when he rolls off the ball, he is tough to defend because he runs so well. We have to put him in position where he can use that to his advantage. You can’t coach or teach that speed.”

Two healthy legs and a better plan for maximizing his abilities could help Valdes-Scantling re-write the narrative on his second NFL season over the last month and a half of 2019.

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Former Packers coach Joe Philbin to help lead Colin Kaepernick’s workout

The former Packers assistant and interim coach will help Hue Jackson during Colin Kaepernick’s workout on Saturday.

Former Green Bay Packers offensive coordinator and interim head coach Joe Philbin will help former Cleveland Browns coach Hue Jackson lead Saturday’s workout for quarterback Colin Kaepernick in Atlanta, according to Ian Rapoport of NFL Network.

The NFL helped arrange the workout for Kaepernick, who hasn’t played in the league since the 2016 season.

It’s unknown if the Packers will attend the workout. All 32 NFL teams were invited. The Packers have a bye in Week 11 and would be free of the obligations of a regular workweek.

Philbin’s responsibilities during the workout could include creating the throwing script and finding capable receivers to throw to during the passing work.

Philbin, who coached in the NFL from 2003-18, took over for Mike McCarthy after the Packers fired the long-time coach in December of last year. The Packers went 2-2 in his four games. He was an offensive assistant in Green Bay from 2003-11 and the head coach of the Dolphins from 2012-15.