Category: HoopsHype

Is Jalen Green already a top-10 shooting guard? HoopsHype thinks so

Rockets star Jalen Green checks in at No. 9 on HoopsHype’s list of the NBA’s top shooting guards for the 2024-25 season.

Jalen Green nearly won Western Conference Player of the Month honors after a spectacular March, during which he led the Houston Rockets to an 11-game winning streak while averaging nearly 30 points per game. Yet, a month earlier, head coach Ime Udoka hinted that he was considering taking Green out of the starting lineup.

It’s that kind of up-and-down play that makes Green’s performance hard to fully project entering his fourth NBA season this fall. But HoopsHype’s Frank Urbina is seemingly a believer.

In HoopsHype’s positional rankings for the 2024-25 season, Green checks in at No. 9 in the league at shooting guard, and he’s just ahead of big names such as Tyler Herro of the Miami Heat; CJ McCollum of the New Orleans Pelicans; and Bradley Beal of the Phoenix Suns.

From HoopsHype, the explanation of Green’s ranking:

One of the big question marks in the NBA. The former No. 2 overall pick looked like a max player for a stretch of games late in the season. Our own Mark Deeks even wrote about it back in late March:

“Since March began, Green has averaged 28.5 points per game, fourth in the league behind only Luka Doncic, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jayson Tatum, and ahead of the greats such as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Kevin Durant, and Nikola Jokic. He has done so on 50.8% shooting and with a 63.1% true-shooting clip, playing with unbridled confidence and coming up with big plays in the clutch, often against quality opposition. He has for three weeks been the nightly game-changing factor that the Rockets always hoped he would be.”

Green eventually cooled off as the Rockets missed the play-in tournament. But even so, it was a very impressive — and important — stretch for the G League Ignite product, who played some of the best basketball of his career.

And yet, Houston still opted not to extend him this summer. And we still have mounds of evidence that Green, a career 42.1% shooter from the floor, isn’t all that efficient of a player.

Regardless, we’re choosing to believe in that elite run of form as evidenced by where we have him ranked, and think he might be able to tap into that efficient stretch from late last season more often in 2024-25. After all, he’s an explosive athlete with good length and skill. He just needs to get much more adept with his scoring to truly take the next step.

It’s worth noting that the decision not to extend Green’s contract (at least not yet) could be motivated by financial considerations at a team level that are unrelated to his personal performance.

Even so, it’s safe to say that the upcoming 2024-25 campaign is a big one for the trajectory of Green’s career in the NBA.

Can he build on that run of elite form in March? We’ll find out soon, with training camp set to begin in late September.

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Amen Thompson on Rockets teammate Dillon Brooks: ‘Coolest dude’

“He works hard for everything,” Amen Thompson says of Rockets teammate Dillon Brooks. “He prepares for games like he prepares for war.”

Going back to his days with the Memphis Grizzlies, veteran forward Dillon Brooks has always been something of a lightning rod for criticism. Teammates love him, but rivals? Not so much.

That trend has continued with the Houston Rockets.

In a recent interview with HoopsHype’s Sam Yip, rising talent Amen Thompson spoke of several topics related to his rookie NBA season in Houston. Regarding Brooks, Thompson said:

DB, he’s the coolest. It surprised me, to be honest. He’s the coolest dude. Really chill. He works hard for everything. He prepares for games like he prepares for war, so I see it in that aspect. Coolest dude for real.

Thompson, who helped Brooks fortify Houston’s perimeter defense last season, said the veteran shared some useful advice with him.

“Just always do something every day,” Thompson said of the professional perspective from Brooks.  “If that’s not basketball, working on your body. He’s big on that. He does that every day.”

Thompson’s complete Q&A interview can be read here.

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Report: Rockets showing interest in potential free agent Paul George

“The Houston Rockets are big-game hunting, and one of the many notable names on their radar is Paul George,” Michael Scotto reports.

After spending his last five seasons with the Clippers, perennial All-Star forward Paul George has a player option to potentially enter free agency in the 2024 offseason, and he hasn’t yet agreed to a new contract with Los Angeles. That has led many around the league to speculate that he could join a new team with space beneath the NBA’s salary cap in free agency, such as the Philadelphia 76ers.

Yet, it was recently reported the Sixers are moving on to other targets, and there’s still no announced deal between George and the Clippers. So, is there a mystery suitor on the market? Or, could George perhaps opt into the final year of his existing contract to expand his options to teams without cap space — similar to how Chris Paul leveraged a trade from the Clippers to Houston in June 2017?

Per Michael Scotto, league insider for HoopsHype, one of those mystery teams could be the Houston Rockets. He writes:

The Houston Rockets are big-game hunting, and one of the many notable names on their radar is Paul George, league sources told HoopsHype. George could potentially exercise his $48.8 million player option to facilitate a trade to his next destination, but currently, the chances of Houston landing George are unlikely, sources said.

The Rockets have several short-term contracts such as Jock Landale, Jae’Sean Tate, and Jeff Green to aggregate in a trade, which could allow Houston and Los Angeles to potentially meet the league’s salary matching rules for teams above the salary cap without putting excessive long-term money on the Clippers’ books.

In terms of desirable trade assets for the Clippers, Houston has a considerable amount of future draft capital, along with a talented young core of players and solid veterans, such as Dillon Brooks.

However, the most difficult element of the equation would be convincing the 34-year-old George — a nine-time NBA All-Star and perhaps the biggest name on the 2024 market — to choose Houston as a destination and attempt to force the Clippers into such a scenario. That could explain why any deal was characterized as “unlikely.”

George has until Saturday, June 29 to decide on his player option.

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2024 NBA draft workout tracker: Who is visiting the Rockets?

As of June 19, here’s the latest intel on which 2024 NBA draft prospects have officially met or worked out with the Rockets.

Though many NBA players are on vacation, team gyms are often busier than ever during May and June. Draft hopefuls are traveling across the league for private workouts, showcasing their talents.

As in previous years, HoopsHype is tracking every known pre-draft workout, compiling a list from its own sources and media reports.

Teams aren’t required to disclose their workouts, and the Houston Rockets under general manager Rafael Stone are often more tight-lipped than many teams regarding their visits. However, some reports still emerge from players, agents, or media sources.

As of Wednesday, June 19, here’s the latest information on which prospects have visited and/or worked out with the Rockets. This list will grow daily until the 2024 NBA draft, during which Houston is currently slotted to pick at No. 3 overall (in the June 26 first round) and at No. 44 overall (as part of the June 27 second round).

Statistical and biographical details are available via Tankathon.

  • Donovan Clingan, sophomore center, Connecticut (No. 6 in HoopsHype’s latest aggregate mock draft)
  • Dillon Jones, junior small forward, Weber State (No. 42)
  • Jamal Shead, senior point guard, Houston (No. 43)
  • Trentyn Flowers, small forward, Adelaide 36ers (No. 48, 19 years old)
  • N’Faly Dante, senior center, Oregon (No. 63)
  • Dylan Disu, senior center, Texas (not ranked, or NR)
  • Marcus Domask, senior shooting guard, Illinois (NR)
  • Quinn Ellis, point guard, Italy’s Dolomiti Energia Trentino (NR, 21 years old)
  • DJ Horne, senior point guard, North Carolina State (NR)
  • Justin Moore, senior shooting guard, Villanova (NR)
  • Mark Sears, senior point guard, Alabama (NR)
  • Isaiah Stevens, senior point guard, Colorado State
  • Tyler Thomas, senior shooting guard, Hofstra
  • Rocket Watts, senior point guard, Oakland
  • Jaylin Williams, senior power forward, Auburn

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NBA draft history: How likely are you to land a star at No. 3 overall?

Historical data suggests that a player drafted at No. 3 overall has a 45% chance of becoming an NBA All-Star at some point, according to HoopsHype’s findings.

The 2024 NBA draft lacks sure-fire stars at the top, and many analysts consider this class potentially the weakest since 2013.

As the June 26 first round approaches, HoopsHype analyzed the historical performance of players selected with those top-30 picks to understand how frequently they attained star-level accolades.

With the Houston Rockets poised to select at No. 3 in the first round (barring a trade), here’s a look at the historical data of that spot:

  • MVP: 4.00 percent
  • Finals MVP: 2.67 percent
  • All-NBA 1st Team: 17.33 percent
  • All-NBA Team: 26.67 percent
  • All-Star: 45.33 percent
  • All-Defensive: 12.00 percent
  • Defensive Player of the Year: 1.33 percent
  • NBA champion: 21.33 percent

It’s worth noting that over a five-draft span from 2014 through 2018, the No. 3 spot featured four All-NBA players in Joel Embiid of the Philadelphia 76ers; Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum of the Boston Celtics; and Luka Doncic of the Dallas Mavericks.

Three of those four — Boston’s Brown and Tatum, and Dallas’ Doncic — will face off starting Thursday in the 2024 NBA Finals.

Given the relatively weak draft class of 2024, the odds of a comparbly elite outcome for the Rockets are remote. But, recent data suggests at least some reasons for optimism at No. 3 overall.

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HoopsHype: Rockets could fit as opt-in trade suitor for Paul George

In opt-in trade scenarios, HoopsHype’s Michael Scotto lists the Kings, Heat, Rockets, and Mavericks as potential options for Clippers star Paul George.

Like most teams, the Houston Rockets aren’t projected to have financial room beneath the NBA’s salary cap in the 2024 offseason. But, they do have a number of expiring contracts to potentially make the salary matching math work on trades, if a target is available.

With that in mind, there’s been a trend in recent years of star players opting in for the final year of existing contracts to force a trade to a desired destination. In this way, those with player options can use the threat of unrestricted free agency (if they opt out, they can potentially leave their current team for no compensation) while expanding any potential list of suitors beyond teams with cap room.

While free agents can reach sign-and-trade agreements, those are generally more prohibitive than opt-in-and-trade scenarios. For example, if a team is over the luxury-tax apron, it cannot receive a player in a sign-and-trade, according to the NBA’s new collective bargaining agreement. Moreover, any team that receives a player in a sign-and-trade can’t cross the apron at any point in that league year.

Thus, leveraging a trade after opting into the final year of an existing contract offers more options. Among numerous examples, that method is how James Harden forced his way from the Philadelphia 76ers to the Los Angeles Clippers in 2023, and it’s how Chris Paul moved from the Clippers to the Rockets in 2017.

So, could nine-time All-Star Paul George — widely viewed as one of the top free agents on the potential 2024 market — pull off the same move by opting into the final year (at $48.8 million) of his existing contract with the Clippers before leveraging a move elsewhere?

It’s at least possible for George and the aging Clippers, who had a disappointing exit from the first round of the 2024 playoffs. And according to Michael Scotto, league insider for HoopsHype, the young and improving Rockets are among a handful of teams that could potentially fit as a George destination. He writes:

George could also have a larger market than only teams with cap space this summer. Theoretically, George could opt into his contract and be traded with the understanding he’d work out a new deal, which would open up possibilities for teams like the Kings, Heat, Rockets, Mavericks, and others looking to acquire another star to fortify their championship contending chances going into next season.

To accept George’s $48.8 million salary in such a scenario, Houston would have to send out something in the range of $40 million in salary to the Clippers. However, that could be accomplished between Dillon Brooks — who makes $22.6 million and could theoretically replace George as a wing starter in Los Angeles — along with the expiring salaries of two players among Jock Landale ($8.0 million), Jeff Green ($9.6 million), and Jae’Sean Tate ($7.1 million).

Because NBA rosters can be temporarily expanded in the offseason to fit up to 21 players, executing a 3-for-1 or 4-for-1 trade is significantly easier than during each regular season.

The problem is, Brooks and expiring contracts probably aren’t enough from a value perspective for the Clippers to trade a star player like George. So, the Rockets would likely have to add further sweetener in the form of a talented young player and/or future draft assets.

With that in mind, would the Rockets (41-41) — who would be better with George, but probably not an immediate title contender — be willing to trade enough assets to make it work for the Clippers? In theory, Houston might be more willing to trade quality assets if George agreed to a contract extension. But, how many years and dollars would a developing team like the Rockets commit to a 34-year-old — and is it worth it, if the contending window isn’t yet open?

If George wanted to play in Houston badly enough (it appears he’s on good terms with Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun), to the point where he would effectively give the Clippers a one-team preferred trade list and otherwise threaten to leave as an unrestricted free agent for no compensation, that could reduce the cost to a manageable level. But, would George be willing to go to extreme lengths for a team that doesn’t yet appear to be a true contender?

All in all, it’s doubtful all of the needed dominos will line up. But it’s an intriguing scenario to ponder and evaluate as decisions on team and player options are made throughout the month of June.

George averaged 22.6 points (47.1% FG, 41.3% on 3-pointers), 5.2 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game last season. On paper, he is a clear short-term upgrade relative to Brooks, who is a good defensive player but much more limited as a scorer and shooter. However, the question for the Rockets is whether that short-term bump is worth the asset premium that would likely be required to make it all work.

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NBA trade value rankings: Rockets among HoopsHype’s Top 100 players

Rockets players Alperen Sengun, Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Jr., Fred VanVleet, and Amen Thompson are all listed in HoopsHype’s Top 100 NBA players by trade value.

The eighth edition of HoopsHype’s NBA trade value rankings is here!

To conduct this exercise, HoopsHype staff members evaluated and ranked the top 100 players based on each player’s talent, production levels, past performances, age, availability, the scarcity of their position, their current contract and future prospects.

Here’s where several members of the 2023-24 Houston Rockets ended up, led by Alperen Sengun at No. 23 overall.

Others in the top 100 list were Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Jr., Fred VanVleet and Amen Thompson. The complete list is at HoopsHype, while rankings specific to the Rockets are available below.

Commentary and salary analysis is written by HoopsHype’s Frank Urbina and Yossi Gozlan. A detailed breakdown regarding all of Houston’s future salary obligations and contracts is available here.

Interview: Aaron Holiday on how the Rockets have turned things around

“I believe we’re going to get to the playoffs this year, for sure,” Rockets guard Aaron Holiday says in a new interview with HoopsHype’s Michael Scotto.

Entering December, the Houston Rockets (8-8) have elevated from a bottom-tier lottery team in recent years to a potential 2023-24 playoff squad after an offseason spending spree that included acquiring Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks and hiring Ime Udoka as head coach.

Rockets guard Aaron Holiday, who was among the veteran free agent signings for an otherwise young Rockets team, recently spoke with HoopsHype insider Michael Scotto about how those veteran newcomers have worked to change Houston’s culture.

Other interview topics include whether the NBA is still sleeping on Houston; the development of Alperen Sengun; how Holiday has taken advantage of his own opportunity with the Rockets, and more.

Now 27 years old, Holiday averages 6.1 points (45.2% FG, 35.1% on 3-pointers) and 2.0 assists in 18.4 minutes as Houston’s backup point guard. He’s a trusted perimeter defender for Udoka, as well.

Transcripts of select portions of Holiday’s interview are available below, with the complete question-and-answer (Q&A) transcript available as part of Scotto’s latest NBA notebook at HoopsHype.

Report: As NBA trade season nears, Rockets aren’t interested in deal for Chicago’s Zach LaVine

Shooting guard has been a position of inconsistency for the Rockets, but Chicago’s Zach LaVine won’t be a trade target, per HoopsHype’s Michael Scotto.

Between Jock Landale, Victor Oladipo, Jeff Green, and Jae’Sean Tate, Houston Rockets general manager Rafael Stone will have tradable salary to make the math work on potential deals in the weeks leading up to the February 2024 trade deadline for this season.

The Rockets (8-8) are off to a better-than-expected start to the 2023-24 campaign, and that’s despite inconsistency at shooting guard from Jalen Green and the unexpected loss of Kevin Porter Jr. just prior to the season (owing to his off-court arrest).

So, if Houston seeks an upgrade to bolster a playoff push, it would stand to reason that shooting guard could be a position of interest. But one player who won’t be a target, according to HoopsHype’s Michael Scotto, is seemingly disgruntled Chicago Bulls star Zach LaVine.

From Scotto’s trade season preview, which includes information sourced from 15 NBA executives and league sources:

Looking ahead to the trade deadline, Houston will look to continue upgrading its roster with the tradeable contracts of Victor Oladipo, Jock Landale, Jeff Green, and future draft pick(s) compensation, league sources told HoopsHype.

Oladipo is on an expiring $9.45 million deal, Landale is owed $8 million this season and includes no guaranteed money next season, and Green is owed $9.6 million this season and has a team option and a non-guaranteed clause in his contract for next season, per our Rockets salaries page.

While Zach LaVine is one of the top names on the market, the Rockets are not in on his sweepstakes, HoopsHype has learned.

It’s also worth noting that over the past few seasons Jae’Sean Tate has also drawn exploratory trade interest from several playoff-caliber teams, league sources told HoopsHype.

Lastly, before signing with Houston, Reggie Bullock had interest from several teams, including the Bucks, Heat, Celtics, Clippers, and Pelicans. Given his proven 3-and-D capability and current role in Houston, he’s also a name to watch.

LaVine is under contract for more than $40 million annually through the 2026-27 season (player option), though his per-game production — while good — isn’t at nearly at a superstar level. Thus, the Rockets could be aiting for a better return on investment, both financially and in terms of the asset cost that a deal would require.

For the right player, Houston does own a considerable amount of future draft capital, which could be used to incentivize a deal.

December 15, which is two weeks away, is the unofficial start to the NBA’s trade season — since that’s the date in which most players who signed contracts in the recently completed offseason become trade eligible. That opens up considerably more options and targets around the league, and Stone and the Rockets should have incentive to be aggressive as their rebuild enters its second phase.

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NBA executives poll: Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Jr. poised for breakout seasons in 2023-24

In a poll of NBA executives, #Rockets prospects Jalen Green and Jabari Smith Jr. are among the leading candidates to have a breakout season in 2023-24.

As the 2023-24 NBA season begins, which players are poised to make the biggest individuals across the league?

With that in mind, HoopsHype polled 25 NBA executives to determine who will be the top breakout candidates this season. Each was asked to list his top three players to have a breakout year.

Some executives voted for a younger player who could thrive with an increased role. Others voted for players on the cusp of becoming potential All-Stars for the first time.

Recent poll winners included Philadelphia’s Tyrese Maxey last season and Cleveland’s Darius Garland the year before, at which point he went on to become an All-Star for the first time.

After receiving feedback from the executives, voting results were tabulated. The top player received five points, the second received three points, and the third received one point for each ballot.

The complete list can be viewed here. As for players on the Rockets, we’ve got their placement and analysis below.