Tunnel Vision – Injuries, free agents and Sunday stars

Tunnel Vision – a look back at Sunday for fantasy free agents, injuries and notable performances.

 

SUNDAY SALUTES
Quarterbacks Pass-Rush TD
Jordan Love 389-6 4
Justin Fields 312-55 3
Baker Mayfield 347-10 3
 Jayden Daniels 233-47 2
Lamar Jackson 156-54 3
Running Backs Yards TD
D’Andre Swift 16-93
7-72
1
Alvin Kamara 19-77
7-42
1
Jordan Mason 24-123
2-37
1
Derrick Henry 24-199
3-10
2
Chuba Hubbard 18-104
4-17
1
Wide Receivers Yards TD
Nico Collins 12-151 1
Jayden Reed 7-139 1
Dontayvion Wicks 5-78 2
CeeDee Lamb 7-98 1
Mike Evans 8-94 1
Tight Ends Yards TD
Tucker Kraft 6-53 1
Pat Freiermuth 5-57 1
Travis Kelce 7-89 0
George Kittle 4-45 1
Dallas Goedert 7-62 0
Placekickers XP FG
Younghoe Koo 2 4
Jake Moody 3 3
Joshua Karty 0 4
Evan McPherson 4 2
Chase McLaughlin 3 2
Defense Sack – TO TD
49ers 6-3 1
Falcons 1-2 2
Broncos 5-1 0
Browns 3-1 1
Buccaneers 6-2 0

Bumps, Bruises and Bowouts

QB Anthony Richardson – Hip
RB Tyler Badie – Back
RB Cordarrelle Patterson – Ankle
RB Jonathan Taylor – Ankle
TE Taysom Hill – Rib injury
WR Christian Watson – Ankle
WR Rashee Rice – Knee

Chasing Ambulances

QB Anthony Richardson – He was hit hard on his hip and left the game temporarily, then re-entered the game and then got hit again on a run and left the game for good. He is expected to have a hip pointer. Richardson downplayed the injury but also couldn’t confirm he would play this week. Joe Flacco will take his place if needed.

RB  Cordarrelle Patterson – He injured his ankle and was carted to the locker room. His status will be determined on Monday, but the Steelers are already without Jaylen Warren and if Patterson missed Week 5 versus the Cowboys, Najee Harris will be forced into a heavy workload.

RB Jonathan Taylor – He suffered a high-ankle sprain on his right ankle – the same one that’s been a problem throughout his career. He could miss extended games if not land on short-term IR. Trey Sermon is the No. 2 back and will be a hot free agent because of it, but it all depends on the official prognosis on the injury. The Colts could elect to find a free agent to help as well.

TE Taysom Hill – Left the loss to the Falcons with what was initially termed as an abdomen injury and later updated to be a rib injury. Hill bruised his lung on the other side a few weeks ago and this is new injury. It is not ideal for a utility player that almost exclusively runs the ball.

WR Christian Watson – The oft-injured Watson missed ten games with hamstring issues last year, but hoped to be beyond that for this season. He was tackled on Sunday and his legs were caught awkwardly underneath him and injured his ankle. The prognosis on his injury should be known by Monday.

WR Rashee Rice – The Chiefs already lost Marquise Brown before the season started, and now the star receiver Rice was carted off after being hit in the knee. Patrick Mahomes threw an interception, and in the process of trying to tackle the interceptor, he inadvertantly hit his own team mate in the knee. While there has not been an official diagnosis as of this writing, HC Andy Reid did say, “it didn’t look good.” Any absence of Rice will force Travis Kelce to assume a much larger role as he did this week after Rice left. Xavier Worthy should also see more work. The fear is that he injured his ACL.

Free Agents, Flops and Other Notables

WR Wan’Dale Robinson – The Giants’ No. 2 receiver in Thursday’s game was Robinson, who totaled 11 catches for 71 yards for a career-best performance. Robinson turned in seven catches for 61 yards last week and benefits from being the other guy to Malik Nabers. Depending on how quickly Nabers recovers from his concussion of Week 4, Robinson could end up as the No. 1 wideout this week in Seattle.

RB Bijan Robinson – Was only given seven carries and gained 28 yards compared to the “hotter hand” of Tyler Allgeier (8-60). But Robinson added four catches for 46 yards and had a touchdown catch called back on a penalty. The Saints were devoted to slowing down Robinson.

RB Chase Brown – The Bengals’ back had a big game when he ran for 80 yards and two scores on 15 rushes, and caught two passes for 12 yards. But they were facing the Panthers and Zack Moss (15-51 rush) also caught four passes for 27 yards and a touchdown. The Panthers have an above-average secondary, and that led to a good showing by the backfield.

RB Chuba Hubbard – Turned in one of his career-best performances when he ran for 104 yards and a score on 18 carries and added four receptions for 27 yards.  Hubbard enjoys a better situation now that the Panthers are throwing better but remains very sensitive to the quality of the opponent. His time as the primary back is likely drawing to an end soon.

RB Jonathan Brooks – The rookie becomes eligible to return from the NFI list this week, and HC Dave Canales said that Brooks was in the final stages of recovery so his debut should be soon. In small leagues, there’s a chance he might have been discarded along the way. It’s also time to consider Plan B if you own Chuba Hubbard but not Brooks.

WR Xavier Leggette – The Panthers’ rookie wideout just recorded his first touchdown while catching six passes for 66 yards in the loss to the Bengals.  Leggette fielded ten targets in the game, second to only Diontae Johnson. Adam Thielen is out with a serious hamstring injury, so the rookie has a chance to carve out a bigger role as they hoped when he was drafted.

Rams receivers – With Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp out, the Rams promoted a new set of starters. While Demarcus Robinson was expected to be the new No. 1 receiver, it was TuTu Atwell (4-82) and Jordan Whittington (6-62), while Robinson only had two catches for 37 yards. It points more to the volatility of relying on the current receivers, but this is an opportunity for them to get more playing time and prove what they can do.

RB D’Andre Swift – After three straight poor efforts as the Bears’ new primary back, Swift had lost the confidence of fantasy owners. He finally showed up in Week 4 when he ran for 93 yards and a score on 16 rushes against the Rams and was also the leading receiver with seven receptions for 72 yards. He’ll need to be in every starting lineup this week against the Panthers.

WR Jordan Addison – The Vikings No. 2 wideout injured his ankle in Week 1 and missed the last two games. He was active this week and served notice that Justin Jefferson is not the only weapon in the offense. Addison scored on his three catches for 72 yards and added a seven-yard rushing touchdown on an end-around.

WR Dontayvion Wicks – Jayden Reed (7-139, TD) was the top receiver in the loss to the Vikings, but Christian Watson left with yet another ankle injury and Wicks stepped up nicely with five receptions for 78 yards and two touchdowns.  With Romeo Doubs also involved, there are numerous viable targets for Jordan Love when he passes, but Wicks will get a promotion for however long that Watson is out, and the fewer healthy receivers are in Green Bay, the more reliable they can be. Expect Wicks to be a hot free agent this week and he carries upside in light of the Watson injury.

RB Tank Bigsby – After an encouraging offseason, Bigsby injured his shoulder and missed Week 2, and was limited to just two carries in Week 3. Against the Texans on Sunday, Bigsby ran for a team-high 90 yards on seven carries, much of that from a 58-yard rush. Bigsby was the starter to open the game, but Travis Etienne (11-50) eventually saw more work. Bigsby has not seen any targets this year, so his production is limited to rushing attempts. But he’ll face the weaker run defense of the visiting Colts this week.

QB Joe Flacco – Stepped in once Anthony Richardson left with a probable hip pointer, and while he only threw for 168 yards and two scores, that almost entirely went to Michael Pittman (6-113, TD) and Josh Downs (8-82, TD). If Richardson is out for Week 5, the always-capable Flacco will face the same Jaguars that just allowed 345 passing yards and two scores to the Texans.

RB Bucky Irving – While the fantasy owners are getting whipped up about the prospects of Irving taking over as the primary rusher in Tampa Bay, that expectation needs to be tempered. Irving was effective again, running for 49 yards and a score with a six-yard catch. But Rachaad White also ran ten times for the same 49 yards, while White added two catches for 35 yards. They’ll face the stout Atlanta run defense this week, so the backfield won’t combine for high production.

RB Kareem Hunt – The Chiefs running back (Part 2) handled a heavy load in his debut, running for 69 yards on 14 rushes and adding two catches for 16 yards. Carson Steele helped Hunt by losing another fumble that saw him benched. Hunt looked good (4.9 YPC) running the ball, though they allowed Samaje Perine (5-14) to take the touchdown plunge. Steele may have seen his last game of any note.

QB Jordan Love – He entered the game as questionable with an expectation that he mightalso share with the running quarterback Malik Willis. The Packers lost 31-29, but that was hardly Love’s fault. Willis played no role and while Love seemed slightly gimpy, he passed for 389 yards and four touchdowns. He travels to face the Rams’ bottom-ranked secondary this week.

Huddle player of the week

Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

RB Derrick Henry – Sunday night served up an unstoppable treat when King Henry faced the visiting Bills. He ran for 199 yards and a score on 24 carries, plus caught three passes for 10 yards and a second touchdown. Had he not fumbled into the endzone, he could have ended with 200 rush yards and three scores. He was a monster that the Bills couldn’t stop or catch.

Salute!

Drama 101 – Somebody has to laugh, somebody has to  cry

Comedy Yards TDs Tragedy Yards TDs
QB Justin Fields 312-55 3 QB Anthony Richardson 71-24 0
RB D’Andre Swift 16-93 Rush
7-72 Rcv
1 RB Breece Hall 10-4 Rush
2-14 Rcv
0
RB Chase Brown 15-80 Rush
1-12 Rcv
2 RB Travis Etienne 11-50 Rush
1-10 Rcv
0
WR Dontayvion Wicks 5-78 2 WR Rashee Rice Nope 0
WR Jordan Addison 3-72 2 WR Brandon Aiyuk 2-48 0
WR Josh Downs 8-82 1 WR Christian Watson nah 0
TE Tucker Kraft 6-53 1 TE Kyle Pitts not 0
PK Younghoe Koo 2  XP   4 FG PK Jake Elliott 2  XP
Huddle Fantasy Points = 199 Huddle Fantasy Points = 24

Now get back to work…

Tunnel Vision – Injuries, free agents and Sunday stars

Tunnel Vision – a look back at Sunday for fantasy free agents, injuries and notable performances.

 

SUNDAY SALUTES
Quarterbacks Pass-Rush TD
Dak Prescott 379-7 3
 Brock Purdy 288-41 3
Lamar Jackson 182-87 2
Malik Willis 202-73 2
Andy Dalton 319-(-2) 3
Running Backs Yards TD
Saquon Barkley 156 2
Kyren Williams 116 3
Derrick Henry 174 2
Chuba Hubbard 159 1
Jonathan Taylor 135 2
Wide Receivers Yards TD
Jauan Jennings 11-175 3
Malik Nabers 8-78 2
Amari Cooper 7-86 2
Diontae Johnson 8-122 1
Rashee Rice 12-110 1
Tight Ends Yards TD
Dallas Goedert 10-170 0
Cole Kmet 10-97 1
Jake Ferguson 6-95 0
Tyler Conklin 5-93 0
Noah Fant 6-60 0
Placekickers XP FG
Will Lutz 2 4
Eddy Pinero 3 3
Brayden Narveson 3 3
Will Riechard 4 2
Brandon Aubrey 1 2
Defense Sack – TO TD
Jets 7-1 0
Packers 7-2 1
Broncos 7-2 0
Seahawks 3-2 0
Vikings 5-2 0

Bumps, Bruises and Bowouts

QB Justin Herbert – Ankle
QB Sam Darnold – Knee
QB Skylar Thompson – Chest
TE Sam LaPorta – Ankle
TE Trey McBride – Head
WR Van Jefferson – Eye
WR Tank Dell – Hand
WR Adam Thielen – Hamstring
WR DeVonta Smith – Concussion

Chasing Ambulances

QB Justin Herbert – He was already playing through a high-ankle sprain and reaggravated it in the loss to the Steelers. His availability to face the Chiefs will be determined later in the week. Taylor Heinicke joined the Chargers just a few weeks ago and replaced him on Sunday.

QB Sam Darnold – Was hit low by a defender but returned to the game. He will get an MRI this week to ensure there is no damage.

QB Skylar Thompson – Was hit by a defender in his ribs and remained down for a while. Tim Boyle replaced him, which dropped the offense by yet another notch. His status for this week’s game against the Titans will be determined during the week, but the Dolphins also signed Tyler Huntley, who may be an option if Thompson remains out.

TE Sam LaPorta – Left the field on a cart after getting rolled up while blocking. He returned later in the game only to leave again when he further aggravated his ankle sprain. The Lions play football on Monday night and then take their Week 5 bye. If LaPorta’s sprain has any severity, they may elect to sit him this week and then have him return in Week 6 after their bye.

TE Trey McBride – Hit helmets with the Lions safety and remained down on the field for a while. He will be evaluated for a concussion. The Cardinals likely do not need McBride this week, but no fantasy player should ever miss a home game against the Commanders.

WR Tank Dell – Injured his hand at the end of the loss to the Vikings but later said it would not be a problem.

WR Adam Theilen – On the day the Panthers magically found an offense, Theilen injured his hamstring during his touchdown catch. He remained down for a while and finally limped off the field. His status will be determined later in the week for the home game against the Bengals this week, but it appeared to be more than a minor strain.

WR DeVonta Smith – The Eagles star wideout was in a scrum when a defender came in from the side and hit him helmet to helmet which the Eagles considered a “dirty shot” (hard to argue). He was immediately diagnosed with a concussion and left the game. If A.J. Brown remains out, the Eagles may be very short on viable wide receivers. Britain Covey and Jahan Dotson would see increased playing time, but Dallas Goedert and Saquon Barkley would likely see bigger roles.

Free Agents, Flops and Other Notables

QB Andy Dalton – Well, this changes everything. At least for this week. Bryce Young was benched and Dalton started against the Raiders. The Red Rocket merely threw for 319 yards and three touchdowns for one of the best fantasy performances by any quarterback this year, let alone on the Panthers. This was an entirely different team than the previous two weeks, and it happened on the road.

WR Diontae Johnson – After his first two weeks as a Panthers only totaled five catches for 34 yards, it was more than a small surprise to see Johnson turn in eight receptions for 122 yards and a touchdown in the win over the Raiders. His 14 targets were nine more than any other Carolina player.

WR Demario Douglas – The Patriots’ slot receiver was busy in the loss to the Jets when he fielded nine targets and caught seven for 69 yards. No other Pats’ receiver gained more than 19 yards and Douglas ended with more than twice as many targets as anyone else.

RB Braelon Allen – The Jets rookie continues to be more involved each week.  Granted, the Jets easily beat the Patriots and Allen helped mop up, but he ran 11 times for 55 yards and had three receptions. Breece Hall gained 54 yards on 16 rushes and caught four passes. Hall scores every week, but any chance for the occasional 25+ carry monster game may be capped off thanks to Allen who is nearing stand-alone fantasy value.

WR Malik Nabers – No matter than he was drafted by one of the worst passing offenses in the NFL, the rookie looks capable of carrying the team by himself in some games. He finished the upset at the Browns with eight catches for 78 yards and two touchdowns. Nabers not only is a difference-maker, he’s making Daniel Jones look great good capable.

WR Amari Cooper – After two weeks of nearly zero production, Cooper showed up in Week 3 against the Giants when he led the Browns with seven catches for 86 yards and two touchdowns. No one else on the Browns’ offense scored or gained more than 33 yards.

Bears backfield – There’s no real fantasy value here, and the Bears’ offense just became even more convoluted with Roschon Johnson leading the backfield with 30 rushing yards on eight carries, while D’Andre Swift gained 20 yards on his 13 rushes and Khalil Herbert (4-9) pitched in as well. It was Johnson’s first work of the season, so expect more of the less.

QB Caleb Williams – After his first two games failed to record a passing touchdown or throw for more than 174 yards, Williams’ owners started quietly returning him to the waiver wire last week. That was premature. The Bears lost in Indianapolis, but the rookie passed for 363 yards and two touchdowns. He threw two interceptions again, but Williams looked more like a No. 1 overall pick in the draft.

WR Stefon Diggs  – The ex-Bill came at a discount in fantasy drafts because he changed teams, but he led the Texans with ten catches for 94 yards this week – twice as much as any other receiver. When the game against the Vikings went bad, Diggs was the preferred target for C.J. Stroud.’

TE Dallas Goedert – The Eagles’ tight end needed to help compensate for the injured A.J. Brown and turned in a career-best ten catches for 170 yards in the win over the Saints. That was double the yardage of his first two games combined. His role may remain large if Brown misses this week in Tampa Bay.

WR Courtland Sutton – He led the Broncos with only seven catches for 68 yards, but Bo Nix passed better and Sutton’s role should continue to grow. Those first two games caused some to give up on him, but Sutton is one to at least hold on to and see how quickly Nix improves.

RB Bucky Irving – He is consistently better than Rachaad White. In the loss to the Broncos (I know, right?), White only ran for 17 yards on six carries (2.8 YPC) while Irving gained 70 yards on nine rushes (7.8). And it wasn’t just trash yardage at the end of the game. By halftime, Irving had already run four times for 49 yards while White had his six rushes. White still caught five passes, while Irving snared three passes.

WR Michael Wilson – The Cardinals saw Marvin Harrison Jr. catch fire in Week 2, and now their No. 2 wideout Wilson logged his best game with eight catches for 64 yards in the loss to the Lions. Harrison still managed five receptions for 64 yards and a touchdown.

Huddle player of the week

Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Jauan Jennings (SF)  –  It doesn’t happen often, but it does happen – the best fantasy player for the week is probably not on anyone’s roster (until waivers are processed this week). The 49ers No. 3 receiver was asked to do more with Deebo Samuel and George Kittle out. He did.

Jennings caught 11 passes for 175 yards and three touchdowns for a career-best performance. And yet, the 49ers still lost 24-27.

Salute!

Drama 101 – Somebody has to laugh, somebody has to  cry

Comedy Yards TDs Tragedy Yards TDs
QB Malik Willis 202-73 2 QB Anthony Richardson 167-24 0
RB Chuba Hubbard 21-114 rush
5-55 rcv
1 RB Rhamondre Stevenson 6-23 0
RB Emanuel Wilson 12-50 rush
2-35 rcv
1 RB Josh Jacobs 14-43 rush
1-5 rcv
0
WR Jauan Jennings 11-175 3 WR Davante Adams 4-40 0
WR Tre Tucker 7-96 1 WR Mike Evans 2-17 0
WR Rome Odunze 6-112 1 WR Tyreek Hill 3-40 0
TE Tyler Conklin 5-93 0 TE Mark Andrews nope 0
PK Will Lutz 2 XP   4 FG PK Ka’imi Fairbairn  1  XP
Huddle Fantasy Points = 207 Huddle Fantasy Points = 39

Now get back to work…

What’s wrong with the NFL?

Injuries up, stats down, scoring off – where is my lucky shirt?

I like to think I know stats. I’ve analyzed and reviewed every player in every NFL game for the last 27 years. I’ve projected and ranked every fantasy-relevant player, every football week, since 1997. So I stay close to stats. During the season, I literally dream about stats and players and games.

So.

What’s wrong with the NFL?

For many years, decades even, Week 1 and 2 produced misleading stats suggesting the NFL was in for a high-scoring year. It was clear back then that the defenses needed to catch up to the offenses – which eventually they would do – but for especially Week 1, more monster games and performances happened than would for the rest of the season.

The old mantra was “don’t get excited about Week 1” since it was always artificially high. After the last two weeks, it feels more like the mantra needs to change to a Marine Corps sergeant strolling down the barrack, banging a nightstick on an empty metal trashcan while yelling, “Wake up, ladies!”

Let’s start with the quarterbacks over the last seven years.  Below are the measurements of the position for each year after two games played:

It isn’t just that there are the fewest passing yards, it is that the NFL is considered to be a “passing league.” Or at least it was. After 32 games, there have only been five quarterbacks that threw for at least 300 yards. Last year, almost one in four quarterbacks threw for 300 yards in those weeks. This year? Only five in the first two weeks.

Think that’s stark? Those five quarterbacks were Jared Goff, Brock Purdy, Geno Smith, Tua Tagovailoa, and Matt Stafford. It is possible that none of them started in your league. And, none of those five 300-yard passers threw more than one touchdown.

So the quarterbacks are at historic ineffective and unproductive levels to open the season. Let’s break down how that trickles into the receivers:

Touchdowns are on a sharp decline for both positions. Yardage hasn’t been lower for both positions. The number of 100-yard receivers and 50-yard tight ends remained about the same but not the scores and yardage overall.  Tight-end scoring has all but evaporated.

The passing stats are down, significantly in several areas and that depresses fantasy points. But, what about those running backs? How big of a hit have they taken? They’ve been devalued and underpaid due to their short shelf life, so have they been as bad or even worse?

Wait, what?

Running backs opened the year with some of the highest rushing yardage and scores in the last seven years? The receiving stats are lower for the last two seasons, surprising given the number of third-down backs and dual-threat running backs. So, the only category of fantasy football interest that thrived was rushing stats from running backs.

It’s a passing league my …

But my drafts picks are okay, right?

No. No they are not. At least most of them are not.

Using The Huddle 12-team expert league draft results from the last three seasons as a sample, I compared each pick to where they ranked within their position after the first two weeks of that season. I marked in red those picks that I viewed as disappointing to the team owner. Again – two weeks into their season, this is how the first three rounds looked to fantasy owners.

Chances are that every fantasy team owner has at least a player or two who  disappointed after two games. Those first three picks are precious and really need to at least meet expectations.

There were 11 disappointments in both 2022 and 2023 over their first three rounds, – about a third of the picks. In 2022, there were only four disappointments in the first 23 picks which meant that those first two rounds paid off pretty well for almost every fantasy owner. It worsened in 2023, but still only 11 players in the first 36 were a disappointment.

This season? Half of all picks in the first three rounds have been disappointment and they were skewed more towards the first round that only had four picks come through for fantasy drafts. By the end of the second round, 14 of the 24 selections had not delivered. So, not only half have not delivered, but they were mostly in the first two rounds that you need to get right to compete.

Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Does the NFL hate my fantasy team?

No. I cannot rule you out personally, but not your fantasy team.

So, what in the NFL is going on? Is it possible that only defenses practiced this summer while offenses spent their time on Zoom calls and everyone secretly played solitaire? There are two schools of thought why the NFL has throttled back the yards and scores, in direct contrast to how seasons used to start.

Doh! Not the two high safeties! – More defenses employ two split safeties to cover the deep part of the field to eliminate deep plays and force offenses to rely on short or intermediate passes. Or just run the ball.

Offenses can’t move in chunks of yardage down the field, in theory, and instead have to string together consistently positive plays to always get a first down in three tries. Secondaries play more Cover-2 and Cover-4 than ever, and that means fewer defenders in the box, so that running the ball is easier.

That is what has happened with fewer high-yardage passing games and an increase in rushing success, but not the receptions for running backs. The NFL is, or at least was, a passing league and defenses have backed up. Nothing on offense or defense that is successful is left alone. The other side always catches up. Golf clap for the NFL secondaries for devaluing those wide receivers. And maybe don’t start your next fantasy draft with five straight wideouts.

The shifting in defensive philosophy is to credit – at least partially. But the Cover-2 or Tampa-2 was created 30 years ago. Tony Dungy and the Buccaneers are credited with the scheme, though it was just an evolution from the Steel Curtain defense in Pittsburgh back in the 1970’s. Offenses act and defenses react. It will always be a give-or-take situation, occasionally boosted for the offense when they tweak the rules to prompt higher scores.

Maybe it is time for a new rule? Maybe make the defensive line count to three before they rush like in sandlot football?

Offenses will catch up. They always do. And then the defenses will catch up…

Credit: Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

But wait, there’s more!

In 2021, the NFL Competition  Committee voted to extend the regular season to 18 weeks (cha-ching) and the preseason was reduced to only three total shams that parade as games. In years past, the first two games were more like scrimmages with the occasional starter showing up for a series. The third game was the chance to play all the starters and tune up for the season against the starters for their opponent. Sometimes for an entire half – it was TV worth watching and a glimpse of what to expect for the season.

The final game was resting the starters and determining which players they needed to cut to reach the 53-man roster limit.

The last three seasons, the three-game preseason is entirely used to determine which 40 or so guys are going to be released and who makes the final roster. There’s no reason to watch preseason games other than it looks like a real NFL game if you squint your eyes and don’t listen to the names the announcers are trying to pronounce.

A greater focus on safety, reducing injuries, and adding an extra dollar-driven regular season game seem to have just moved all the injuries to the regular season. Aside from the Vikings J.J. McCarthy, who was seriously injured this summer? Every season by December, there are usually few notable injuries. It is said that is because everyone is already playing injured, and the guys that were going to have serious injuries already did. Only now, that starts in Week 1 instead of the summer.

Teams practice less and offenses do not get in synch as well as they once did. That mostly waits for the regular season, and now face defenses that are committed to slowing down the passing that already is starting out sloppier and less effective than ever.

Just five years back, the first two weeks would serve up around 20 300-yard passers. Now there were only five – and they only threw one score, if even that.

So just party like it is 1999?

It is an interesting question – is this merely a part of the cyclic nature of offense vs. defense that will start to swing back towards higher yards and scores? Or is this a more fundamental change to the game?

The preseason has become nothing more than the interview process for which players make the final roster, and install new schemes mostly using overhead projectors and walk-throughs. Player safety is paramount and the NFL and NFLPA don’t want to lose players in the summer. So the precision and timing needed to complete a pass may suffer at first. And the passing stats will decrease. Maybe we’ve already witnessed the Golden Age of Passing.

The problem appears two-fold in nature – defenses are dedicated to stopping deep passes and maybe more so, it is an unintended consequence for shortening the preseason and adding another revenue-generating game that actually ends up degrading the product. They are never going back, so say hello to the new normal.

Having followed this very closely for 27 years, it is a throwback to see running backs rushing more and catching less. And great quarterbacks are  starting to turn in sub-200 yard passing games. And a decline in scoring from many of our fantasy players. And the season opens with what feels like far more injuries than usual. One thought occurs to me as I run through the game-by-game stats this year.

Maybe this is your father’s NFL, just with an astronomic operating budget.

Betting the NFL line: Week 3

A league-wide view into the best wagers to make for NFL Week 3 action.

In the first two weeks of the season, there have been more games with both teams scoring 20 or fewer points (eight) than contests where both teams scored more than 20 points.

In a typical week, there may be two or three games with an Over/Under of 40 points or less. This week there are currently six. Is this a sign of things to come or an early-season aberration?

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook


New England Patriots (+220) at New York Jets (-275)

The Jets are a prohibitive favorite (6.5 points at -120 Patriots, -110 Jets). The Patriots have owned this rivalry. While the Jets are clearly better, almost a touchdown is a lot of points to give in a division rivalry on a short week. Take the Patriots plus 6.5 points (-120).


New York Giants (+240) at Cleveland Browns (-300)

The Browns are big favorites (6.5 points at -105 Giants, -115 Browns). The Giants can’t seem to get out of their way, and heading into Cleveland against one of the best defenses in the league isn’t a recipe for changing that dynamic. Take the Browns and lay 6.5 points (-115).


Chicago Bears (+100) at Indianapolis Colts (-120)

The Colts are a minimal favorite (1 point at -110 for both teams). The Bears haven’t figured it out offensively, and Caleb Williams has struggled early. Big plays will determine this game, and Anthony Richardson is capable of making more of them. Take the Colts and lay 1 point (-110).


Houston Texans (-130) at Minnesota Vikings (+110)

The Texans are slight road favorites (1.5 points at -110 for both teams). Minnesota has been a pleasant surprise to start the season, but the Vikings have struggled with mobile quarterbacks who extend plays and make plays Sam Darnold can’t. C.J. Stroud carries this game. Take the Texans and lay 1.5 points (-110).


Philadelphia Eagles (+125) at New Orleans Saints (-115)

The Saints have overpowered their first two opponents but are small home favorites (2.5 points). There is a reason for this number – the Eagles are the better overall team and can win in more ways than the Saints. It may seem blasphemous given New Orleans’ start, but take the Eagles on the moneyline (+125).


Los Angeles Chargers (+105) at Pittsburgh Steelers (-125)

The Over/Under on this game is about as low as a line gets (35.5 points at -110 for both). Only one team likely needs to get past 20 points to go Over and both Justins (Herbert and Fields) are capable of making enough plays to top this. Take Over 35.5 points (-110).

[lawrence-related id=493185]


Denver Broncos (+260) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-350)

The Over/Under is low on this one (39.5 points at -110 for both teams). Bo Nix and the Broncos have scored only 26 points in two games, so the Buccaneers know they don’t have to take a lot of risks to win this game handily and will call plays accordingly. Take Under 39.5 points (-110).


Green Bay Packers (+105) at Tennessee Titans (-125)

The Titans are minimal home favorites (1.5 points at -110 for both Packers and Titans). The Packers got away with running the ball 53 times to beat the Colts. Tennessee’s run defense is much stronger, and former Titan Malik Willis will crumble when asked to shoulder more of the burden, assuming, of course, Jordan Love (knee) remains out. Take the Titans and lay 1.5 points (-110).


Carolina Panthers (+200) at Las Vegas Raiders (-250)

The Over/Under is pretty low (40 points at -110 for both). While bringing Andy Dalton in at QB may seem like a solid move, a stationary target against the Raiders defense will result in a lot of drives dying outside of scoring position. Take Under 40 points (-110).


Miami Dolphins (+180) at Seattle Seahawks (-225)

The Seahawks are solid favorites (4.5 points at -110 for both teams). The sentiment is that Miami is hobbled without Tua Tagovailoa. They still have too many explosive weapons to ignore. Giving away that many points seems too high. Take the Dolphins plus 4.5 points (-110).


Detroit Lions (-150) at Arizona Cardinals (+125)

This is the biggest Over/Under of the week (51.5 points at -110 for both Over and Under). The NFL hasn’t seen many back-and-forth shootouts this season, but this one has all the earmarks of what it takes – offenses capable of scoring 30 points and defenses capable of allow enough to go Over. Take Over 51.5 points (-110).


Baltimore Ravens (-115) at Dallas Cowboys (-105)

The Ravens are a road favorite (1 points at -105 Ravens, -115 Cowboys). If the Ravens start 0-3, their season won’t be over, but it will be a huge hole to climb out of that historically doesn’t happen. Take the Ravens and lay 1 points (-105).


San Francisco 49ers (-350) at Los Angeles Rams (+280)

The 49ers are big road favorites (7.5 points at -105 49ers, -115 Rams). The Rams are without both of their top playmaking wide receivers, and the Niners are stinging from a humbling loss to Minnesota. Too many signs point to a potential San Francisco blowout. Take the 49ers and lay 7.5 points (-105).


Kansas City Chiefs (-190) at Atlanta Falcons (+155)

The Chiefs are modest road favorites (3.5 points at -110 for both teams). Kansas City hasn’t put a complete game together yet. If the defensive front can pressure Kirk Cousins, he will make the mistakes that helps the Chiefs roll to a win. Take the Chiefs and lay 3.5 points (-110).


Jacksonville Jaguars (+200) at Buffalo Bills (-250)

The Over/Under is above average (45.5 points at -110 for both teams). Both offenses’ identity early on have been run-first. Both defenses are built to limit the pass, so a run-heavy game will make it difficult to top this number. Take Under 45.5 points (-110).


Washington Commanders (+280) at Cincinnati Bengals (-375)

The Bengals are 0-2 but are big favorites (7.5 points at -110 for both teams). Washington hasn’t found its footing offensively, and the Bengals will take advantage of that in what needs to be viewed as a no-holds-barred desperation game. Take the Bengals and lay 7.5 points (-110).


Tunnel Vision – Injuries, free agents and Sunday stars

Tunnel Vision – a look back at Sunday for fantasy free agents, injuries and notable performances.

 

SUNDAY SALUTES
Quarterbacks Pass-Rush TD
Kyler Murray 266-59 3
Derek Carr 243-1 3
Sam Darnold 268-32 2
Baker Mayfield 185-34 2
Joe Burrow 258-9 2
Running Backs Yards TD
Alvin Kamara 20-115
2-65
4
De’Von Achane 22-96
7-69
1
James Cook 11-78
1-17
3
Breece Hall 14-62
7-52
1
J.K. Dobbins 17-131 1
Wide Receivers Yards TD
Marvin Harrison Jr. 4-130 2
DK Metcalf 10-129 1
Malik Nabers 10-127 1
Davante Adams 9-110 1
Calvin Ridley 4-77 2
Tight Ends Yards TD
George Kittle 7-76 1
Hunter Henry 8-109 0
Brock Bowers 9-98 0
Trey McBride 6-67 1
Mike Gesicki 7-91 0
Placekickers XP FG
Austin Seibert 0 7
Daniel Carson 2 4
Evan McPherson 1 4
Brandon Aubrey 1 4
Justin Tucker 2 3
Defense Sack – TO TD
Bills 2-3 1
Packers 1-3 0
Steelers 2-2 0
Chiefs 3-1 1
Cardinals 5-1 0

Bumps, Bruises and Bowouts

PK Graham Gano – Hamstring
WR Cooper Kupp – Ankle
WR Justin Jefferson – Quad bruise
QB Justin Herbert – Leg
TE Taysom Hill – Chest
TE Evan Engram – Hamstring
RB Tyjae Spears – Ankle
RB Isiah Pacheco – Leg IR

Chasing Ambulances

WR Cooper Kupp – Left the loss to the Cardinals with an ankle injury on a team that already lost Puka Nacua for an extended period. If Kupp cannot return for Week 3, it will be catastrophic for the Rams. Demarcus Robinson becomes the primary wideout and the rest of the receivers have to step up, but it is far less certain who, if any, can outplay the rest. The early speculation is that it may be a high-ankle sprain but that will be determined on Monday.

WR Justin Jefferson – Early diagnosis was a quad bruise and that he would be day to day. Already missing Jordan Addison, the Vikings still beat the 49ers in what apparently is an annual tradition in Minnesota. But Jefferson turned in four catches for 133 yards and a score before he left, which included a 97-yard touchdown catch. Jalen Nailor (3-54, TD) was effective subbing for Addison, but there are no other wideouts that merit grabbing if Jefferson was to miss any time.

TE Taysom Hill – Left the win over the Cowboys with a chest injury and went to a local hospital as a precaution. If he misses time, there is no real replacement for the versatile Hill who has been more of a rusher than a receiver.

TE Evan Engram – It doesn’t happen often, but it does happen. Engram strained his hamstring during pregame warmups and fantasy owners barely had 30 minutes to replace him in their lineups.  Brenton Strange (3-65) replaced him with some success, but the second-year tight end now totals just eight career receptions.

RB Tyjae Spears – Left the loss to the Jets with an ankle injury and will be diagnosed on Monday. Tony Pollard already has been the primary back and more effective rusher, so any Spears absence boosts Pollard’s workload.

RB Isiah Pacheco – Suffered an ankle injury at the end of the win over the Bengals. HC Andy Reid said Pacheco would be assessed on Monday. If he misses time, the rookie Carson Steele would take over the rushing chores along with increased usage of third-down back Samaje Perine. Pacheco left the stadium on crutches wearing a walking boot.

Free Agents, Flops and Other Notables

 RB Devin Singletary – He is no Saquon Barkley but against the Commanders, he looked like him. Singletary gained 95 yards on 16 rushes with a touchdown. Hope you didn’t blink.

RB Carson Steele (KC) – The undrafted rookie gained 24 yards on seven carries in the win over the Bengals, and while he lost a fumble, the Chiefs still did not use Samaje Perine for any rushes. Steele is a handcuff need for the Pacheco owner.

WR Malik Nabers – The rookie logged his first 100-yard effort, gaining 127 yards and a touchdown on ten catches. Again, against the Commanders, which maybe should carry an asterisk on it. But at least Daniel Jones threw 18 passes at him and no more than four to any other receiver.

RB Brian Robinson – Ended with 133 yards on 17 carries and caught a three-yard pass. Apparently, you should just circle your fantasy player calendar when they face the Commanders or the Giants.

WR Calvin Ridley – He ran in a score, unlike any actual Titan running back, and he caught a 40-yard bomb for a second touchdown. He supplied both offensive touchdowns and a big chunk of the meager yardage for the Titans.

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba – Last year’s bust draft pick is starting to exert himself for the Seahawks, leading the team with 12 catches for 117 yards from 16 targets. DK Metcalf (10-129, TD) was also busy, but we expected that.

RB Antonio Gibson – After a quiet debut in New England last week, the ex-Commander running back was a difference-maker with 96 yards on 11 carries and one catch for seven yards. Rhammondre Stevenson ran for 81 yards on 21 carries with a score, but Gibson was also used as an effective rusher. Neither back did much as a receiver.

RB Jordan Mason – With the news that Christian McCaffrey was placed on IR for the next four to whatever weeks, Mason again shined with 100 yards and a score on 20 rushes in the loss to the Vikings. Notable too – He handled all but one carry for the running backs.

RB Josh Jacobs – To no surprise, the Packers went run heavy with Jordan Love out. To some surprise, the Colts still let Josh Jacobs (32-151) cruise to a monster yardage game.

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown – After gaining just 13 yards on three catches in Week 1, St. Brown was back in business, turning 19 targets into 11 catches for 119 yards in the surprise loss to the Buccaneers.

WR Quentin Johnston – Another of the high-draft pick flops from 2023, Johnston showed up with a team high five catches for 51 yards and two receiving touchdowns in the win over the Panthers. He was the only notable receiver for the Chargers but being the primary target is encouraging.

TE Brock Bowers – The rookie was a major part of the Raiders’ shocking win over the Ravens, and ended with nine catches for 98 yards and that was every target he was thrown. He led the Raiders with six catches for 58 yards in Week 1. Notable is that he is killing the fantasy value of Jakobi Meyers and gets the benefit of being “the guy who is not Davante Adams.”

TE Isaiah Likely vs Mark Andrews – Likely became the biggest waiver wire darling last week when he dominated the Baltimore receivers (9-111, TD) and Andrews was left with just two catches for 14 yards because the Chiefs planned on just covering him. After fantasy owners spent stupid money in free agency after Likely, he rewarded them with two catches for 26 yards. Andrews  reeled in four receptions for 51 yards. Sometimes Week 1 is just Week 1, not Week 1 of Many.

TE Mike Gesicki – The Bengals new tight end stepped up when Tee Higgins was out and Ja’Marr Chase was well covered. He led the Bengals with seven receptions for 91 yards, more than double that of any other team receiver.

QB Derek Carr – He’s worth sticking on your roster after OC Klint Kubiak’s offense just paved the Cowboys. That makes two straight weeks that Carr was a Top-7 fantasy quarterback scorer.

WR Marvin Harrison Jr. – After his debut resulted in only one catch for four yards, he’s figured out this NFL thing in hurry since his four catches for 130 yards and two touchdowns (23 and 60 yards) led all wide receivers for Week 2. So, maybe, yeah – he’s gonna need to be covered better.

Huddle player of the week

Credit: Tim Heitman-Imagn Images

RB Alvin Kamara  –  The Cowboys are unbeatable at home, at least during the regular season, until now when the Saints went all “Packers” on them for Week 2 with a 44-19 beatdown that was greatly credited to Alvin Kamara who ran for 115 yards and three scores on 20 carries, and caught two passes for 65 yards and a fourth touchdown. Kamara wasn’t just the best fantasy play of Week 2, he was the top dog by a 15-point margin.

Salute!

Drama 101 – Somebody has to laugh, somebody has to  cry

Comedy Yards TDs Tragedy Yards TDs
QB Sam Darnold 268-32 3 QB Josh Allen 139-2 1
RB Braelon Allen 7-33
2-23
2 RB Rachaad White 10-18
1-5
0
RB Devin Singletary 16-95
1-0
1 RB Najee Harris 17-69
1-5
0
WR Quentin Johnston 5-51 2 WR Mike Evans 3-24 0
WR Jalen Nailor 3-54 1 WR Cooper Kupp 4-37 0
WR Jalen Tolbert 6-82 0 WR Tyreek Hill 3-24 0
TE Hunter Henry 8-109 0 TE Travis Kelce 1-5 0
PK Austin Seibert 7 FG PK Jake Moody 2  XP 1 FG
Huddle Fantasy Points = 158 Huddle Fantasy Points = 48

Now get back to work…

Tunnel Vision – Injuries, free agents and Sunday stars

Tunnel Vision – a look back at Sunday for fantasy free agents, injuries and notable performances.

SUNDAY SALUTES
Quarterbacks Pass-Rush TD
Josh Allen 232-39 4
 Baker Mayfield 289-21 4
Jayden Daniels 184-88 2
 Anthony Richardson 212-56 3
 Lamar Jackson 273-122 1
Running Backs Yards TD
Saquon Barkley 109
2-23
3
Joe Mixon 159
3-19
1
De’Von Achane 24
7-76
1
J.K. Dobbins 135
3-4
1
Alvin Kamara 83
5-27
1
Wide Receivers Yards TD
Jayden Reed 4-138
1-33
2
Tyreek Hill 7-130 1
Mike Evans 5-61 2
A.J. Brown 5-119 1
Cooper Kupp 14-110 1
Tight Ends Yards TD
Isaiah Likely 9-111 1
Foster Moreau 4-43 1
Brock Bowers 6-58 0
Kyle Pitts 3-26 1
Juwan Johnson 2-26 1
Placekickers XP FG
Chris Boswell 0 6
Blake Grupe 5 4
Brandon Aubrey 3 4
Ka’imi Fairbairn 2 3
Chase McLaughlin 4 3
Defense Sack – TO TD
Vikings 5-2 1
Bears 3-3 2
Cowboys 6-2 0
Saints 4-3 0
Chargers 3-3 0

Bumps, Bruises and Bowouts

QB Jordan Love (GB) – MCL
WR Jordan Addison (MIN) – Ankle
WR Puka Nacua – Knee
TE David Njoku (CLE) – Ankle
TE Jake Ferguson (DAL) – Knee
RB Kenneth Walker III – Abdomen

This feels very light for a group of players that are just now playing games that matter.

Chasing Ambulances

QB Jordan Love (GB) –  He suffered a Grade 2 sprain to his MCL, which is expected to sideline him for around three weeks. That puts newly-signed Malik Willis into the starting role. Willis was just acquired, so he has no real experience in the scheme or with the receivers. Downgrades for all Packer fantasy options until Love gets healthy.

WR Puka Nacua (LAR) – He was injured this summer and once again is having problems with his knee. We’ll know more soon, but it is a bad sign that he was ruled out of the game and was visibly limping. Should Nacua miss any time, he’ll be replaced by Tyler Johnson and Demarcus Robinson would see an uptick, but as was shown on the Sunday night game, it ends up to be mostly Cooper Kupp shouldering a giant share of the targets.

WR Jordan Addison (MIN) – Sprained his ankle and it was not the same ankle he injured this summer. Addison was not on crutches when he left the stadium, but he also did not speak with anyone. Brandon Powell is his backup if needed, but the Vikes didn’t pass much in Week 1. The Vikes host the 49ers this week and will need more than just Justin Jefferson to stay in the game. But there are no fantasy options here that warrant a pickup.

RB Kenneth Walker III (SEA) – The Seattle back left the game with what was described as an abdominal injury but he said that he was “good” after the game and it does not appear to be an issue going into this week’s game at the Patriots.

TE Jake Ferguson (DAL) – The tight end went down with a knee injury that appeared to be potentially serious. Early speculation is that he may have missed an ACL tear, but he’ll get an MRI on Monday to determine the prognosis and treatment.

TE David Njoku (CLE) – He is speculated to have a nigh-ankle sprain which could last weeks depending on the severity. Jordan Akins would take his place but his receptions would more likely end up with other wideouts or running backs.

Free Agents, Flops and Other Notables

Week 1: Reality check – What says fantasy football more than Week 1 when your best players flop and mediocre players blow up. Here’s a quick reminder of the best players from Week 1 of last season.

QB Mac Jones – 316 yards, 3 TD
RB Tyler Allgeier – 94 yards, 2 TD
RB Joshua Kelley – 91 yards, TD
RB Miles Sanders – 98 yards
RB Justice Hill – 9 yards, 2 TD
WR Kendrick Bourne – 64 yards, 2 TD
WR Romeo Doubs – 26 yards, 2 TD
WR TuTu Atwell – 112 yards

And some of the worst from Week 1, 2023:

QB Dak Prescott – 143 yards
QB Lamar Jackson – 169 yards
QB Jalen Hurts – 170 yards, TD
RB Rachaad White – 49 yards
TE Trey McBride – 23 yards
WR Ja’Marr Chase – 39 yards
WR Amari Cooper – 37 yards

Week 1 is usually very different from the rest. Never make any decisions based off just Week 1.

RB Najee Harris (PIT) – It is just one game and Justin Fields was the quarterback but the first week of the new offense under OC Arthur Smith and there wasn’t any committee backfield. Harris gained 70 yards on 20 carries, and caught one pass for nine yards. Jaylen Warren was held to only two runs for seven yards (he had been banged up, though) and the dreaded Cordarrelle Patterson only ran four times for 13 yards.

TE Kyle Pitts (ATL) – The Steelers defense did a great job on the Falcons, but it was still encouraging to see Kyle Pitts score a touchdown on his three catches for 26 yards in his first game with Kirk Cousins. Drake London (2-15) had a bad debut, but at least this offense noticed Pitts.

Rookie Wide Receivers – So, how well did those rookie wideouts repay your optimism?

Marvin Harrison (1-3)
Malik Nabers (5-66)
Rome Odunze (1-11)
Brian Thomas Jr. (4-47, TD)
Xavier Worthy (2-47 catch, 1-21 rush, 2 TD)
Keon Coleman – (4-51)

A few scores, but not much yardage. Welcome to the NFL!

Rookie Quarterbacks

Caleb Williams (14-29-93 pass, 5-15 rush)
Jayden Daniels (17-24-184 pass, 16-88 2 TD rush)
Bo Nix (26-42-138 pass, 5-35 TD rush)

Rough start for passing yardage, but those passing touchdowns are coming. Soon. We hope.

RB Tony Pollard (TEN) – Another team where the committee backfield never appeared. Pollard ran for 82 yards on 16 carries and scored, while Tyjae Spears was limited to four runs for 21 yards. They split the work as receivers with three or four short catches each. They both averaged over five yards per carry against the Bears, but Pollard was the clear primary.

QB Baker Mayfield (TB) – Granted, he played the Commanders and their terrible defense from last year, but it was still impressive when he passed for 289 yards and four touchdowns.

RB J.K. Dobbins (LAC) – The dangerous runner has always been an injury waiting to happen, and that may hold true again with the Chargers. But for Week 1, Dobbins was back to rookie form when he ran for 135 yards and a score on ten carries versus the Raiders. He added three receptions for four yards while Gus Edwards plodded his way to 26 yards on 11 rushes. Get him while he is still healthy…

RB Jamaal Williams (NO) – Kendre Miller is on injured reserve for at least four weeks and Williams was effective rushing for 38 yards and a score on 11 carries, plus caught a 13-yard pass. Granted – it was against the woeful Panthers but Williams let Kamara rest in the second half.

RB Bucky Irving (TB) – The Buccaneers added Irving in the draft since Rashaad White was far from effective last year, despite his heavy workload. White only gained 31 yards on 15 carries against the Commanders while the rookie gained 62 yards on nine rushes. White also caught six passes for 75 yards and was always a weapon as a receiver. Irving is doing everything he can to become the lead rusher.

RB Tank Bigsby (JAC) – The second-year running back impressed coaches this summer as a player who finally “got it.” Travis Etienne was one of the heavier-used backs last year and Bigsby was brought on to help last year. Bigsby ran for 73 yards on 12 carries (6.1 YPC) with the same amount of carries as Etienne, who was limited to only 44 yards on his twelve runs. Bigsby doesn’t yet have stand-alone fantasy value, but he is impacting what Etienne did.

WR Alec Pierce (IND) – He scored and almost had two touchdowns. He gained 125 yards on three catches that included the 70-yard score. The third-year wideout has been locked into sub-600-yard and two touchdown seasons. Michael Pittman and the rookie Adonai Mitchell are still more attractive fantasy options.

WR Devaughn Vele (DEN) – I’m sorry, who? The Broncos seventh-round pick is a 6-4, 203-pound  ex-Utah wideout who is a 26-year-old rookie because he was on a Mormon mission. Unbeknownst to all but his closest friends and family, he caught eight passes in the preseason as the Broncos weeded through their crop of rookies and free agents. Oh, and he also tied Chris Godwin with eight catches on Sunday, more than any other NFL receiver not named Kupp . Not Troy Franklin, their fourth-round pick. Vele was the preferred target for Bo Nix and while he only gained 39 yards, he became a pass sponge for a team that needs to throw a lot.

Different and NOT good – NFL teams use the summer to determine their eventual final roster, and each Week 1 ushers in lower production from teams that are still getting into synch and mostly trying to avoid summer injuries. That’s translated into mostly lower scores and, even worse, lower production from our fantasy players.

Last year, there were five 300-yard passers in Week 1. Five years ago, there were 13 300-yard quarterbacks in Week 1. For this season? Just two. Tua Tagovailoa and Matt Stafford, and both passed for just one score.

Last year, there were eight 100-yard receivers. Five years back, there were 18 in Week 1. This week there were just seven. Only 11 wideouts gained more than 75 yards. There were 15 last season and 26 in 2019. Fantasy scoring is down.

Let’s talk tight ends. Isiah Likely was the only tight end with more than 60 yards. Only four gained more than 40 yards and just five caught a score. It was a fantasy point drought to kick off 2024.

The good news – it will be turning up starting next week.

Huddle player of the week

Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Saquon Barkley (PHI)  –  The Giants were long-limited to only Barkley as their only offensive weapon. Without him, they could do nothing in their loss to the Vikings and chances are every fan and front-office type regrets letting him go. But in his first game as an Eagle, he looked like the missing piece that can propel the Eagles to the Big game. He ran for 109 yards on 24 carries with two scores, plus caught two passes for 23 yards and a third touchdown.

He won’t get 33.2 fantasy points every week, I mean, probably not, right?

Salute!

Drama 101 – Somebody has to laugh, somebody has to  cry

Comedy Yards TDs Tragedy Yards TDs
QB Baker Mayfield 289
3-21
4 QB Joe Burrow 164 0
RB J.K. Dobbins 135
4-3
1 RB Javonte Williams 23 0
RB Alexander Mattison 19
4-43
1 RB Derrick Henry 46 0
WR Jayden Reed 171 2 WR Marvin Harrison 1-4 0
WR Alec Pierce 3-125 1 WR Chris Olave 2-11 0
WR Xavier Worthy 2-47
1-21
2 WR Drake London 2-15 0
TE Isaiah Likely 9-111 1 TE Evan Engram 1-5 0
PK Chris Boswell 6 FG PK Younghoe Koo  1  XP 1 FG
Huddle Fantasy Points = 196 Huddle Fantasy Points = 27

Now get back to work…

WR1 vs. WR2 vs. WR3 – fantasy value in NFL depth charts

Does the No. 2 wideout from an NFL team have fantasy value?

Sometimes, very late at night, I have to battle bad ideas, songs that I cannot get out of my head, potential pranks to do to my wife, and fantasy football questions before I can successfully reach Slumber Land.  Last night, wife pranks and bad ideas were really the same thing, so that left me with this burning question – Should you drain all of the top receivers from every NFL team before drafting a second-best receiver from an NFL team?

What about the No. 3 guy from a team? Does he offer fantasy value like we think (hope) while drafting Ladd McConkey almost certainly too early?

Let’s look at the actual stats from the last three seasons. These consider who were the first, second, and third-best fantasy scorers from that year. Obviously, injuries will have an impact on where wideouts eventually rank, but it ends up that there actually is consistency in what happens.

WR1 for each NFL team

As you would expect, the WR1 from NFL teams dominate the top-ranked fantasy wideouts. Considering that most leagues would start three wide receivers, there are five or six wideouts that may be the best from that team, but they ended outside the Top-36 fantasy wideouts. The Giants, Broncos, and Cardinals haven’t been a major fantasy contributors from their wide receiver corps over the last few years.

There is consistency for most of these top receivers. The No. 10 fantasy wideout scores about the same every year – the names just change. The same phenomena exists at all levels other than the extreme best and worst. But safe to say that if you draft a No. 1 receiver from an NFL team, he should end up in the Top-24 or so outside of those lowest-tier teams that were mostly expected.

WR2 for each NFL team

Now the more interesting results begin.

There are usually only eight wideouts who are the team No. 2, and yet still rank in the Top-36 for fantasy points. 2022 was oddly solid for No. 2 wideouts with five in the Top-20. Normally, it is only two or three that end that productive and they are pretty consistent from year to year. Chris Godwin, DeVonta Smith, Jalen Waddle, and then someone from the Vikings or Seahawks are usual residents at the top of the No. 2 wideout list.

So while the No. 1 wideout from an NFL team take up around 27 or so of the Top-36 fantasy ranks, the No. 2 wideouts only contribute around five players worthy of being a fantasy starter over a season.

WR3 for each NFL team

Think about the above table when you are scooping up wide receivers in the final rounds of your draft. The No. 3 wideout on any NFL team has almost no chance of being a fantasy starter. This isn’t to say that depth charts don’t change and players don’t see more (or less) work as they try to climb said ladder. Injuries also have a major impact on depth charts and resulting end-of-the-season rankings.

But interesting too is the consistency.  At each level, generally the same fantasy points are scored and only the names change.

If you never drafted a No. 3 wideout from an NFL team, you’d be okay. Granted, you’re trying to find a No. 3 guy that may slide up to being the No. 2 guy, but the fantasy value outside of those top two from an NFL team is almost nothing.

 

Best-ball strategies for Tight Ends

Tight ends are better this year, and yet less different in the Top-10

Each year, tight ends were consistently a big advantage within the Top-3 – Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews and George Kittle. They were, for a few seasons, the only difference-makers in the position and if you didn’t reach one of them, most drafters just waited until at least Round 6 to draft one, and it would be about Round 11 before all teams had their TE1.

Not anymore.

For tight ends, 2023 was a historic shift. It was well established that rookie tight ends never had fantasy relevancy until their second season at the earliest. But that was all shattered. Kelce and Kittle still delivered but Mark Andrews missed six games.

Sam LaPorta broke all the rules. The Detroit rookie ended as the No. 1 fantasy tight end. Second-year Cardinal Trey McBride was the No. 7 with a furious end to his season. The Bills rookie Dalton Kincaid stepped up to become a fantasy starter by the end of the year.

In 2023, nine tight ends scored over 175 fantasy points. In 2022, there were only four. Tight ends are contributing more fantasy points than ever, and the reality is that no longer is it “Top-3 or forget it.” That increased value for starting fantasy tight ends changed how they are drafted.

Let’s break down where the average best ball draft takes tight ends.

Average draft position for best ball tight ends

First off, this is where the Top-24 tight ends are drafted in the average best ball draft this summer. It’s similar to traditional leagues.

This is a change from 2023, when Travis Kelce was a first-rounder, and Mark Andrews and T.J. Hockenson went in the third or fourth rounds to reward them for their fine 2022 season, but then both would lose much of their season to injury.

The Top-10 last until Round 8 this year, but extended to Round 9 in 2023. The plus for drafters is that there were so many fantasy-relevant tight ends last year that  drafters wait longer before taking them and burn through the Top-10 with two taken in each of Round 5 to Round 8.

As a big proponent of getting an elite tight end on my fantasy team, those Top-3 are much cheaper this year, thanks to higher perceived value from the rest.

Mixing and matching tight ends

Since every week matters, I gave each tight end their average fantasy game score from 2022 to replace any missing games. That changed the order a bit from what actually happened, but nothing dramatic.

Here are the Top-24 once their missed games were replaced.

The bang for the buck was less in 2023, without a dominating No. 1 and No. 2 who had greatly outscored the rest of the position.  That’s why we’re seeing the position not drafted until the third round.

The Top-9 fantasy tight ends were still over 200 PPR points and the difference between the No. 1 and No. 7 were only 33 points. For best ball purposes, consider the above Top-24 and how each did in producing games with 15+ fantasy points.

This is really very telling. In 2022, Kelce produced 13 games with 15+ points and became a fantasy first-rounder.  However, only Mark Andrews and George Kittle managed six of those games that year, and no one else managed more than four. In 2023, the Top-3 all tied with seven each and then nine tight ends turned in at least five such games. That blew away the previous season.

Notable too in this look is that George Kittle showed he is still feast or famine with monster performances balanced by only minor games otherwise.

Getting a Top-8 tight end is an advantage and almost no one ever drafts their second tight end before the eighth one is selected. The same phenomenon happens with fantasy quarterbacks. You just will not get much from your TE2 even when optimal scoring is done in a best ball league.

 Bottom Line

The tight end as a fantasy position subtly underwent significant change in 2023. That elite Top-3 did not distinguish themselves nearly so well from the rest of the pack and the best tight end was a rookie that often was undrafted in many leagues.

It still pays to own a top tight end, same as it is an advantage in any fantasy position. But the payoff isn’t nearly as large as it had been in recent years. And that is reflected in how they are drafted, with the Top-2 gone by Round 4 and then an even two-player drain each round to finish out the ten best fantasy tight ends.

The good news is that you do not have to reach nearly as early to be solid at your tight end. The bad news is that the advantage that is offered has decreased.

Best-ball strategies for Quarterbacks

The higher scoring your first quarterback proves, the less your second quarterback matters.

The reality in both traditional and best ball leagues is that you mix in running backs and wide receivers early and often throughout your draft. Those positions typically call for at least two and maybe up to four different starters each week. But quarterbacks require just one starter (super flex aside) and that already makes them a unique position because they are the top scorers in almost all fantasy league scoring.

In the “best ball” format, there are no starting decisions. The league software  automatically awards you with the highest-scoring quarterback on your roster for that week.

In traditional league play, owning the highest-scoring quarterback is an advantage, balanced by what you gave up to draft him. In best ball, is it better to draft a top quarterback, or can you make up that difference by owning two of the Top-10 scorers? Where is the bang for your buck? Let’s find out.

Average draft position for best ball quarterbacks

First off, this is when the Top-24 quarterbacks are drafted in the average best ball draft this summer. It’s not any different than traditional leagues. By around Round 8, the first 11 quarterbacks are taken on average.

In a traditional league with point-per-reception scoring, this is roughly what to expect. Last year, the quarterbacks were considered more valuable coming off a season where the Top-3 turned in monster performances. By Round 5, eight quarterbacks were selected with two taken in each of Round 2 to Round 5.

Quarterbacks have been devalued from last year when Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow dropped in production and the position had enough newcomers to lower the perceived reliability. For this season, expect to spend a Round 3 or Round 4  pick to reach a Top-4 quarterback. Last year, it cost you a second or a third-rounder.

Just like last year, the Top-15 drafted quarterbacks are gone by Week 9 when everyone has their starter and a few get a high-end QB2 for their teams. Quarterbacks are slightly cheaper this year, so that the Top-8 are gone by Round 6 whereas they were all taken by Round 5 in 2023.

Mixing and matching quarterbacks 

One truism in fantasy football trumps all else – “you have to pick players that match or exceed the expectation of their draft spot.” At the core, no matter what your strategy is, if you do not pick players that at least repay the value you drafted them for, nothing else matters. And yes, some of your players will be injured and ruin everything you tried to accomplish. Welcome to fantasy football.

In best ball leagues, there is a sense that volume overcomes individual talent, meaning that if you wait on a quarterback like so many do, then you just grab a couple of “good” ones, expecting they’ll combine for optimal weekly scores that equate to a “great” quarterback.

Since every week matters, I gave each quarterback their average fantasy game score for any missing games.

Here are the 2023 Top-24 if they had not missed games.

As usual, there is a major advantage to owning a Top-3 quarterback. The slope gets smoother after the first five quarterbacks are taken, meaning that the difference between the No. 8 and the No. 15 quarterbacks is negligible at around one or two points per game.

Combining two or three later round quarterbacks = Top-10 equivalent

No.

It doesn’t. Don’t kid yourself.

Having done the statistical studies in the past, whenever you grab that QB2 in the hopes that he’ll magically line up good and bad weeks with your first drafted quarterback and boost your points significantly is just wrong. Yes, best ball means that you get the optimal score from your position. No, that in no way compensates for a weak QB1. You could collect four or five of the bottom-end quarterbacks and all combined they won’t equal a top quarterback.

The reason a top quarterback is elite is because in most weeks, and maybe nearly all, he’ll generate more fantasy points than a lesser quarterback. There will be a mild bump in total points from the optimal scoring, but it rarely equates to more than 40 or 50 more fantasy points over a season. You’ll see the same bump from combining nearly any two quarterbacks from the Top-20.

The higher scoring your first quarterback proves, the less your second quarterback matters. Almost every week will rely on that top quarterback, and your backup provides little more than a bye week cover. 

There are great reasons to have a highly drafted QB2 – bye weeks, injury coverage, plus the chance he has a surprise big season. But he’s not going to add much to what your QB1 is already going to do.

Laying back and drafting two quarterbacks outside of the Top-5 is a disadvantage at the highest-scoring position. Don’t expect on “optimal scoring” to carry your team of average players. Build an average team, get an average score. Best ball or standard play doesn’t really matter.

There are reasons to own three quarterbacks, but it’s more about covering your bases should one be lost for the season to injury. It doesn’t add many points to your total because you just get one quarterback score, and the deeper you go in the draft, the less likely that quarterback will top the other two.

It makes sense to have a strong set of quarterbacks. But your QB1 is going to do all your heavy lifting… or not.

Bottom Line

The numbers show that your first quarterback will supply the bulk of your weekly best-ball points for the position, and the difference-makers at the top need little more than a bye-week cover.  There just isn’t the bang for the buck in adding an early second quarterback when you snagged yours by the fifth round.

Fantasy football has been previously gripped by the “zero-QB theory.” Sure, you can win with a fantasy team that doesn’t have a top quarterback. But the rest of your team has to deliver more.

Play a few best ball contests and in each, try a different strategy at quarterback with at least one team getting a Top-3. Check your results at the end of the year. While deeper quarterbacks do not distinguish themselves much, those prized top scorers provide an advantage that no other position can provide.

How reliable are the previous year’s No. 1 fantasy scorers?

How reliable are No. 1 players the next year?

Christian McCaffrey is the near-universal 1.01 pick in every fantasy draft. Expect Josh Allen to be around a third-round pick in most leagues, and perhaps the first pick when it is a league starting two-quarterbacks. He will be the first quarterback selected. Want a tight end? Sam LaPorta is the first to go, even before Travis Kelce #GreatestTightEndEver #IsSheThere. CeeDee Lamb climbed the rankings and is the first wideout taken in nearly every draft. Why? Because these players were the top in their positions in 2023.

And hey – how great do they look on a shiny new fantasy roster this summer?

Happens every year. Literally – I’ve played fantasy football for over 30 years and it always happens. And yes, if I am first to raid a position, the previous No. 1 kind of screams  “Take me! Don’t be an idiot!”

But do they really deliver again? How reliable have they been over the last ten years, at least returning as a viable and upper-tier pick?

Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Quarterbacks – 20% reliable

NAME Before No. 1 After
Josh Allen 2 2023 na
Patrick Mahomes 4 2022 8
Josh Allen 1 2021 2
Josh Allen 9 2020 1
Lamar Jackson 29 2019 10
Patrick Mahomes 53 2018 10
Russell Wilson 11 2017 10
Aaron Rodgers 12 2016 31
Cam Newton 17 2015 15
Andrew Luck 7 2014 27

 

 

 

 

 

 

Finishing as the No. 10 fantasy quarterback the next season means that the player did not kill you, but offered no advantage – something you expect when selecting the first player from a position. And removing Josh Allen from the equation drops the return rate to pretty much 0%. Picking Allen again should payoff for the fifth-straight year.

Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

Running Backs – 20% reliable

NAME Before No. 1 After
Christian McCaffrey 11 2023 na
Austin Ekeler 2 2022 24
Jonathan Taylor 6 2021 30
Alvin Kamara 9 2020 9
Christian McCaffrey 2 2019 53
Saquon Barkley na 2018 10
Todd Gurley II 15 2017 3
David Johnson 8 2016 111
Devonta Freeman 48 2015 6
Le’Veon Bell 15 2014 48

 

 

 

 

 

 

The expectation that running backs rise and fall more than any other position is true. Christian McCaffrey is the only player showing up twice, and his 2020 “next season” performance flopped due to injury which is always a fear with running backs. Todd Gurley posted a No. 3 after his 2017 season which was about the last we saw of his knees.  Saquon Barkley managed the feat as a rookie and has struggled with his own injury problems. The negative in being the No. 1 in any year is that for running backs, that meant a high-volume of touches that often lead to injury issues the following season.

Credit: David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports

Tight Ends – 90% reliable

NAME Before No. 1 After
Sam LaPorta na 2023 na
Travis Kelce 2 2022 3
Mark Andrews 6 2021 3
Travis Kelce 1 2020 2
Travis Kelce 1 2019 1
Travis Kelce 1 2018 1
Travis Kelce 1 2017 1
Travis Kelce 8 2016 1
Rob Gronkowski 1 2015 26
Rob Gronkowski 19 2014 1

 

 

 

 

 

 

The only outlier was Gronkowski who was a beast for two straight years and then battled injuries the next year. But otherwise, the worst you’d get with the No. 1 tight end was the No. 3 – still a major advantage in a position that holds minimal difference-makers. That feels good for the LaPorta pickers who are spending a third or fourth round pick to start the tight end run. But this position has been all about Rob Gronkowski and Travis Kelce for the last decade.

Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Wide Receiver – 60% reliable*

NAME Before No. 1 After
CeeDee Lamb 6 2023 na
Justin Jefferson 4 2022 31
Cooper Kupp 26 2021 23
Davante Adams 24 2020 2
Michael Thomas 6 2019 93
DeAndre Hopkins 1 2018 5
DeAndre Hopkins 27 2017 1
Antonio Brown 1 2016 2
Antonio Brown 1 2015 1
Antonio Brown 3 2014 1

 

 

 

 

 

 

Given the antics and bad press for Antonio Brown, it is easy to forget just how dominant a player that he was. The return rate for the top receiver was arguably 100% without injuries the next year. Michael Thomas broke down in 2020 after his historic 149-catch season that so far ended his fantasy value with constant ankle, hamstring and knee issues. He was like a running back that was just used up one season and never bounced back. Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson also saw their next season shortened due to injuries.

*It is notable that the number of catches seems to translate into injuries the next year. Consider the receptions that followed a No. 1 performance over the last five seasons and their following results when they had more than 125 receptions.

Michael Thomas (149-40)
Davante Adams (115-123)
Cooper Kupp (145-75)
Justin Jefferson (128-68)
CeeDee Lamb (135-?)

The Cowboys have changed nothing on their offense, so Lamb’s role should remain the same. But it at least draws a question as to whether Lamb can repeat without injury. None of the previous 125+ catch wideouts that were No. 1 were able to stay healthy during the last five years. Only Adams returned with a high-performance, but he only caught 115 passes when he recorded his No. 1.