Category: Game Analysis

For the last 10 years, there are patterns for whether a playoff game was won by the home (H) or the visiting (V) teams:

Wildcard Rounds

The NFL is onto their fourth season with six Wild Card round games instead of the historical four. Typically this round is rich in visitors winning which is surprising given that all home teams are division winners. In 2020, there were only two home (division winners) teams that won and advanced to the Divisional Round. And then it changed in 2021 with only one visitor advancing. Last year, it was just two.

It is not unusual for the best wild card team to be better than the worst division winner. Things have changed for the last two years though.

• 2013 Winners
  H – Kansas City 44, Indianapolis 45
  V – San Francisco 23, Green Bay 20
  V – New Orleans 26, Philadelphia 24
  V – San Diego 27, Cincinnati 10
• 2014 Winners
  H – Arizona 16, Panthers 27
  V – Baltimore 30, Steelers 17
  H – Bengals 10, Colts 26
  H – Lions 20, Cowboys 24
• 2015 Winners
  V – Chiefs 30, Texans 0
  V – Steelers 18, Bengals 16
  V – Seahawks 10, Vikings 9
  V – Packers 35, Redskins 18
• 2016 Winners
  H – Raiders 14, Texans 27
  H – Lions 6, Seahawks 26
  H – Dolphins 12, Steelers 30
  H – Giants 13, Packers 38
• 2017 Winners
  V – Titans 22, Chiefs 21
  V – Falcons 26, Rams 13
  H – Bills 3, Jaguars 10
  H – Panthers 26, Saints 31
• 2018 Winners
  V – Colts 21, Texans 7
  H – Seahawks 22, Cowboys 24
  V – Chargers 23, Ravens 17
  V – Eagles 16, Bears 15
• 2019 Winners
  H – Bills 19, Texans 22 OT
  V – Titans 20, Patriots 13
  V – Vikings 26, Saints 20 OT
  V – Seahawks 17, Eagles 9
• 2020 Winners
  H – Colts 24, Bills 27
  V – Rams 30, Seahawks 20
  V – Buccaneers 31, Washington Football Team 23
  V – Ravens 20, Titans 13
  H – Bears 9, Saints 21
  V – Browns 48, Steelers 37
• 2021 Winners
  H – Raiders 19, Bengals 26
  H – Patriots 17, Bills 47
  H – Eagles 15, Buccaneers 31
  H – Steelers 21, Chiefs 42
  V – 49ers 23, Cowboys 17
  H – Cardinals 11, Rams 34
• 2022 Winners
  H – Seahawks 23, 49ers 41
  H – Chargers 30, Jaguars 31
  H – Dolphins 31, Bills 34
  V – Giants 31, Vikings 24
  H – Ravens 17, Bengals 24
  V – Cowboys 31, Buccaneers 14
• 2023 Winners
  H – Browns 14, Texans 45
  H – Dolphins 7, Chiefs 26
  V – Packers 48, Cowboys 32
  H – Rams 23, Lions 24
  H – Steelers 17, Bills 31
  H – Eagles 9, Buccaneers 32

Divisional Rounds

The divisional round rarely contains more than one road winner.  Totaling up the wins from the ten years – Home 29 Away 11. In the last five, Home  14 Away 6. And 2021 was a huge deviation with three road winners. Overall, this is usually the round with just one visitor winning and twice it had all home teams win.

• 2013 Winners
  H – New Orleans 15, Seattle 23
  H – Indianapolis 22, New England 43
  V – San Francisco 23, Carolina 10
  H – San Diego 17, Denver 24
• 2014 Winners
  H – Ravens 31, Patriots 35
  H – Panthers 17, Seahawks 31
  H – Cowboys 21, Packers 26
  V – Colts 24, Broncos 13
• 2015 Winners
  H – Chiefs 20, Patriots 27
  H – Packers 20, Cardinals 26
  H – Seahawks 24, Panthers 31
  H – Steelers 16, Broncos 23
• 2016 Winners
  H – Seahawks 20, Falcons 36
  H – Texans 16, Patriots 34
  V – Packers 34, Cowboys 31
  V – Steelers 18, Chiefs 16
• 2017 Winners
  H – Falcons 10, Eagles 15
  H – Titans 14, Patriots 35
  H – Saints 24, Vikings 29
  V – Jaguars 45, Steelers 42
• 2018 Winners
  H – Chargers 22, Patriots 41
  H – Colts 13, Chiefs 31
  H – Cowboys 22, Rams 30
  H – Eagles 14, Saints 20
• 2019 Winners
  V – Titans 28, Ravens 12
  H – Vikings 10, 49ers 27
  H – Seahawks 23, Packers 28
  H – Texans 31, Chiefs 51
• 2020 Winners
  H – Rams 18, Packers 32
  H – Ravens 3, Bills 17
  H – Browns 17, Chiefs 22
  V – Buccaneers 30, Saints 20
• 2021 Winners
  V – Bengals 19, Titans 16
  V – 49ers 13, Packers 10
  V – Rams 30, Buccaneers 27
  H – Bills 36, Chiefs 42
• 2022 Winners
  H – Jaguars 20, Chiefs 27
  H – Giants 7, Eagles 38
  V – Bengals 27, Bills 10
  H – Cowboys 12, 49ers 19
• 2023 Winners
  H – Texans 10, Ravens 34
  H – Packers 21, 49ers 24
  H – Buccaneers 23, Lions 31
  V – Chiefs 27, Bills 24

Championship Rounds

For most years, both home teams usually win. It happened in seven of the last ten seasons and yet 2018 saw both visitors win (in overtime, no less).  The last five seasons only contained two where both home teams won. That’s an aberration but also meshes with 2020 when they added the additional wild card team. It is notable too that the last two seasons had lower scoring conference championships.

• 2013 Winners
  H – New England 16, Denver 26
  H – San Francisco 17, Seattle 23
• 2014 Winners
  H – Packers 22, Seahawks 28
  H – Colts 7, Patriots 45
• 2015 Winners
  H – Patriots 18, Broncos 20
  H – Cardinals 15, Panthers 49
  
• 2016 Winners
  H – Packers 21, Falcons 44
  H – Steelers 17, Patriots 36
• 2017 Winners
  H – Jaguars 20, Patriots 24
  H – Vikings 7, Eagles 38
• 2018 Winners
  V – Rams 26, Saints 23 OT
  V – Patriots 37, Chiefs 31 OT
• 2019 Winners
  H – Titans 24, Chiefs 35
  H – Packers 20, 49ers 37
• 2020 Winners
  V – Buccaneers 31, Packers 26
  H – Bills 24, Chiefs 38
• 2021 Winners
  V – Bengals 27, Chiefs 24
  H – 49ers 17, Rams 20
• 2022 Winners
  H – 49ers 7, Eagles 31
  H – Bengals 20, Chiefs 23