Fantasy football statistical analysis

Fantasy Football: Key utilization stats to know from Week 12

Recapping the most important fantasy football player utilization data from Week 12 play.

Woohoo. It’s Thanksgiving week. All 32 NFL teams are in action in Week 13, and the regular season is winding down. Hopefully the holidays treat you well. I plan to “utilize” my knife and fork to put a dent in the turkey and mashed potatoes. Well, you wouldn’t use a knife and fork on mashed potatoes, but you understand.

Looking back at Week 12, we didn’t have a ton of change and strange things in fantasy football. Six teams were on a bye, so that probably helped. And three losing teams that might make some changes also were off.

The important utilization stats, and any notable changes to future fantasy usage, were short and sweet this week.

Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family, and I appreciate your readership. That is one thing I am very thankful for, especially after 2020 showed us that our lives can be upturned rather quickly. Hopefully you are hurtling toward a fantasy football trophy, and this piece has helped in some small part.

Fantasy Football: Key utilization stats to know from Week 11

Recapping the most important fantasy football player utilization data from Week 11 play.

Man, where has the time gone? It’s hard to believe that 11 weeks of the NFL regular season are in the rearview mirror, and we’re barreling toward the fantasy football playoffs.

We continue to see changes each week, as a guy is useful one week, and then the next week he is gone as quickly as he emerged. We’re also witnessing some veterans dying a slow career death, and it’s rather sad.

Heading into Week 12, we have six teams on a bye, too, making this perhaps the most important and competitive waiver-wire week. The Atlanta Falcons, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Jacksonville Jaguars, New Orleans Saints and New York Jets will be off. Let’s review some key utilization statistics from the previous weekend to examine the fantasy landscape and consider how the developments of Week 11 might shape the future.

Fantasy Football: Key utilization stats to know from Week 10

Recapping the most important fantasy football player utilization data from Week 10 play.

The first 10 weeks of the fantasy football season have concluded, marking a transition into Week 11 of the NFL. Let’s review some key utilization statistics from the previous weekend.

Each week, shifts in fantasy values occur, stemming from fresh injuries, recoveries, or even collateral effects of injuries at different positions. In addition, time is running short for certain players. While some have the luxury of a longer leash, others face impatient veteran coaches who prioritize immediate victories over sparing feelings.

Week 11 brings a bye for four additional teams: Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers, New York Giants, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Now, let’s examine the fantasy landscape and consider how the developments of Week 10 might shape the future.

Fantasy Football: Key utilization stats to know from Week 9

Recapping the most important fantasy football player utilization data from Week 9 play.

Following the Monday Night Football game in Week 9, the National Football League’s regular season has reached its halfway mark.

The Dallas Cowboys‘ starting quarterback, Dak Prescott, sustained a multiweek injury, impacting the fantasy values of various receivers and potentially the running game.

Reflecting on the MNF game, Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight end Cade Otton continues to impress, ascending into the must-start category. It’s worth noting that in the tight end role, significant production shifts can occur with minimal output.

Recent trades also have led to changes in fantasy values for certain players, affecting both their new teams and their former squads.

The Monday game between the Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs was not only entertaining but also provided valuable insights for fantasy football enthusiasts. After all, that’s why we’re here, right?

Looking ahead to Week 10, with the Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers, Las Vegas Raiders, and Seattle Seahawks on bye weeks, the dynamic landscape of fantasy football becomes even more crucial to navigate.

Fantasy Football: Key utilization stats to know from Week 8

Recapping the most important fantasy football player utilization data from Week 8 play.

During Week 8 of the 2024 NFL regular season, several players made a comeback from multigame injuries, which is promising news as some fantasy football stars are expected to rebound from a string of lackluster performances.

The Cleveland Browns underwent a quarterback change, and their offense has shown significant improvement, scoring a season-high 29 points against the Baltimore Ravens after struggling to surpass 18 points in the first seven games. Browns receivers are now regaining their fantasy football value as QB Jameis Winston has breathed life into the offense in place of the injured QB Deshaun Watson.

In other news, Green Bay Packers QB Jordan Love suffered a groin injury. While initial reports suggest it may not be a long-term issue, it’s a development that’s being monitored closely, particularly in terms of its impact on wide receiver performance. With QB Malik Willis stepping in, the Packers’ passing game appears less favorable for Green Bay receivers from a fantasy perspective.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers‘ passing offense also is under scrutiny with WR Chris Godwin (leg) out for the season and WR Mike Evans (hamstring) sidelined for at least two more games. This will be an offense in flux for another game or two.

As we approach Week 9, the Pittsburgh Steelers and San Francisco 49ers are on their bye week, leaving the remaining 30 NFL teams ready for action.

Fantasy Football: Key utilization stats to know from Week 7

Recapping the most important fantasy football player utilization data from Week 7 play.

What a disastrous weekend in the 2024 National Football League. We saw a lot of offensive stars, including plenty of fantasy football standouts, go down to injury.

For a couple of weeks, we had a reprieve from the injury bug. Things were starting to go a little better, but in Week 7, it caught up in a hurry.

The San Francisco 49ers saw WR Brandon Aiyuk go down with torn anterior cruciate and medial collateral ligament injuries, and he is done for the season. Joining him on the shelf for the season is Cleveland Browns QB Deshaun Watson, as well as Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin.

While they’re not done for the season, Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels barely played in Week 7 due to an injury to his ribs, and he is hopeful of a Week 8 return. Las Vegas Raiders QB Aidan O’Connell wasn’t as lucky, as a fractured thumb sidelines him for a month.

While a lot of the injury news was at the quarterback position, that has a trickle-down affect to the skill positions, especially at the tight end and wide receiver. For instance, when is the last time Miami Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill had a big game? That last time his regular QB Tua Tagovailoa was healthy. It doesn’t take much to throw things off and affect fantasy values dramatically.

The good news is that we won’t have any teams in a bye in Week 8, so if you’re making some moves based on utilization, injuries, etc., at least there are more possibilities heading into the new week.

Fantasy Football: Key utilization stats to know from Week 6

Recapping the most important fantasy football player utilization data from Week 6 play.

We’re now at least five into the 2024 National Football League regular season, depending upon if a team has already had its bye. The depth chart changes do not take a week off, and one week a guy has fantasy appeal, and then next he is waiver-wire fodder.

It happens with injuries, too, where a starter goes down, the fills in and tears it up, and then the coach is reluctant to change back.

We had a few guys see their fantasy values change because of injuries at the quarterback position, too, and one change actually pumped up the fantasy prospects of a couple of other players.

Lastly, it’s just one game, but one guy could be back from the dead, so hopefully you didn’t pull the plug on him too early.

We have just two teams on a bye in Week 7, so that’s a good thing. Some of these depth chart changes, or guys who step in for an injury right before a bye, can be rather meaningless as things get shaken up like an Etch-a-Sketch when a bye week hits.

Fantasy Football: Key utilization stats to know from Week 5

Recapping the most important fantasy football player utilization data from Week 5 play.

All teams during the 2024 National Football League regular season have logged either four or five games to date, and we now have enough of a sample size to either cut bait on fantasy football players not meeting drafting expectations.

Draft charts are changing all of the time, and sometimes it’s a move at another position that trickles down and effects other areas of an offense.

The good news is for the second straight time in Week 5, the injury bug was pretty kind after a brutal first three weekends. Changes won’t result from injuries, and that’s a good thing. And, we’re starting to see some guys start to get over nagging injuries, or get up to speed after shaking off rust from off-field issues in training camp and the preseason.

In other words, it seems like we’re getting some normalcy after a wild ride in the first month.

Fantasy Football Top-10 Repeatability: Running Backs

Take a step back and see how the Top-10 RBs change from year to year.

A Top-10 running back is a difference maker because not they score among the highest fantasy points of any position, and do so with great consistency. The position has fallen in value over the last several years and the reliance on a workhorse back wanes each season. But – there is still an undeniable advantage to owning a Top-10 fantasy running back.

Also see: Quarterback | Wide receiver | Tight end

Below are all running backs that produced a Top-10 finish in any of the past five seasons, and what they did in the other years. This shows the volatility of the position and how rarely backs actually return to the Top-10 the following season, despite the fact we all draft like they are going to repeat.

Chance of repeating Top-10 = 20%

Running backs have been on the decline for many years while backfields become more fragmented and workloads spread over more “specialists.” That’s accelerated greatly for the last two seasons, and it is not just injuries shaking up depth charts.

Consider that in the last two years, 18 running backs made the Top-10. Only Joe Mixon and Derrick Henry logged back-to-back Top-10 seasons. And both have changed teams for 2024. The volatility of the top players is dramatic and unlike any other position. Six of the 2023 Top-10 were no better than No. 33 in 2022. Austin Ekeler and Josh Jacobs were in the Top-2 for 2022 and yet fell to No. 24 and No. 27 respectively. That’s a high draft pick last year that did no better than a fantasy RB3 for your team.

The disturbing part of this is not so much the tremendous turnover at the top, but that the new batch of elite fantasy scorers are almost all coming from deep in the rankings for the one year. The position has become the host for the annual Cinderella’s to show up and then stumble the next year.

The 2023 Top-10 running backs are very well represented in fantasy drafts with seven of them again drafted in this year’s Top-10 (Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Travis Etienne, Kyren Williams, and Derrick Henry). The only Top-10 backs who fell out of the Top-10 in drafts so far have been Rachaad White (No. 14), Joe Mixon (No. 17), and Raheem Mostert (No. 32).

Hard to argue against waiting on running backs. Very hard.

Let’s make this even worse. Consider how well the Top-10 of 2021 fared just two years later.

Joe Mixon was the only running back to be Top-10 in 2021, and then again two years later. Half of the 2021 backs failed to place better than No. 33 just two seasons later.

Fantasy Football Top-10 Repeatability: Quarterbacks

Take a step back and see how the Top-10 QBs change from year to year.

The elite quarterbacks of the NFL tend to be the most consistent players with Top-10 play for more than one season. With just 32 starting quarterbacks, the group is already limited and those at the top tend to stay at the top. Your fantasy draft will reflect how much more consistently great the top quarterbacks are and how highly they are rightfully valued.

They are the highest scoring player on your fantasy team. It pays to take that advantage to its optimal height with an early quarterback.

Also see: Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end

Last year saw Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts repeat their Top-3 finish to 2022, and you’ll almost always see them as the first two quarterbacks drafted this summer. Rightfully so. There were an unusually high number of injuries to the Top-10 from 2022 and that impacted the position.

Chance of repeating Top-10 = 55%

Jared Goff and Trevor Lawrence are stringing together Top-10 seasons, and either could repeat again just as easily. Joe Burrow, Kirk Cousins, and Justin Herbert all had injuries in 2023 and they are all dinged this summer because of it. Lamar Jackson gets plenty of love after the new system seemed to greatly enhance his production. Brock Purdy and Jordan Love were newcomers to the Top-10 and most drafters are not quite ready to buy into them, making them a deeper pick that may pay off handsomely if they can repeat.

Even year serves up the annual first times like Justin Fields and Geno Smith from 2022, but they usually fade back. There are reason to expect more of the same from Purdy and Love. Given the incidence of quarterback injury last year, shagging that second quarterback should be done sooner than later. And grabbing two Top-10 quarterbacks may seem expensive, but it solidifies your highest scoring position.