Category: 2024 NFL Mock Draft

Washington Commanders select Illinois DL Johnny (Jer’zhan) Newton with the 36th overall pick. Grade: A+

The Washington Commanders got the best defensive tackle in this class in Johnny Newton, and Dan Quinn will unleash hell with him.

Newton was my best defensive tackle in this class, and one of the defensive players. I know that some teams were worried about the Jones fracture in his foot, but he played through it last season and still destroyed just about every offensive lineman he faced. New Commanders head coach Dan Quinn is one of the NFL’s most creative minds in terms of defensive line deployment and scheme (Quinn’s Cowboys led the league in stunts last season), and this match of team and player had the potential to be absolutely incendiary. 

A three-star recruit from Clearwater Central High School in St. Petersburg, Florida, Jer’Zhan Newton (who has since changed his first name to Johnny) chose Illinois under head coach Lovie Smith over several other programs, and excelled under defensive coordinator Aaron Henry in a defense that has recently put a lot of talent in the NFL, including Seattle Seahawks 2023 first-round cornerback Devon Witherspoon and Philadelphia Eagles 2023 safety Sydney Brown.

In 2023, his fourth year on the field with the Fighting Illini, Newton totaled eight sacks, seven quarterback hits, 28 quarterback hurries, 32 stops, and 33 solo tackles, At 6-foot-2 and 295 pounds (unofficial), Newton can disrupt just fine inside, but he also saw 25% of his snaps last season either over or outside the tackles, and he brings an interesting set of techniques to foil blockers on the edge.

Newton should be seen as among the best interior defensive linemen in this draft class, though he can do much more. He did not work out at the combine due to a Jones fracture in his foot — which he played through the second half of his junior season… which makes his 2023 tape all the more impressive.

PLUSES

— Capable of pressure from every gap; spends most of his time at 3-tech, but he’s a disruptor all over the place.

— Gets skinny through gaps like a running back would; gets it done with more than just pass-rush moves.

— Violent with his hands to push through blocks with ridiculous speed — Hits the edge with burst around the turn; can beat tackles with edge techniques.

— Can run multiple gaps at the snap and has good vision to penetrate.

MINUSES

— Size deficits (6′ 1⅝, 304) show up when he’s doubled and can’t break free.

— Slides will have him lost in the wash and trying to recover at times.

— Needs to be less upright off the snap more often; that’s where he loses leverage.

I’ve always had a bias for smaller defensive tackles who can move around. Newton could wind up being another one of those Geno Atkins-style agitators if he gets his leverage together and devises strategies to beat double teams. Overall, about as fun a player to watch as I’ve seen in this draft class.

Los Angeles Chargers select Georgia WR Ladd McConkey with the 34th overall pick. Grade: A

To get a receiver of McConkey’s stature in the top of the second round is an absolute gift for the Chargers, who traded up to make this move.

To get a receiver of McConkey’s stature in the top of the second round is an absolute gift for the Chargers, who traded up to make this move. McConkey will make Jim Harbaugh’s receiver-thin group much better right off the bat. And he’s not just a default slot guy — Greg Roman will be able to move him all over the place. 

Let’s be frank about it: If you’re a smaller white receiver, people are going to want to compare you to every smaller white receiver, put you in a box labeled “Gritty Slot Guy,” and move on to the next. Those who wish to typecast Georgia receiver Ladd McConkey thusly are really missing out.

Over three seasons with the Bulldogs, McConkey caught 119 passes on 158 targets for 1,692 yards and 14 touchdowns. Injuries limited his 2023 productivity to a degree, but he still caught 30 passes on 37 targets for 483 yards and two touchdowns. 70% of his targets came outside, while 23% came from the slot, and 6% from the backfield, so this isn’t just another guy limited to two-way goes from the inside.

McConkey is faster than you might think, tougher than you might think, and his route awareness is NFL-plus right now. Don’t penalize him because he isn’t the typical X-iso outside receiver; focus on all the things he can do for your passing game. And in that realm, he does contain multitudes.

PLUSES

— Route mastery is clear from his tape; McConkey has the full route tree at his disposal, and he can take that right to the NFL.

— McConkey uses an impressive burst off the line of scrimmage to set cornerbacks up in press or off coverage, and then, those cornerbacks are going to have issues with his sudden cuts into and out of his breaks.

— Has a great sense of how to force the defender into a spot, and then will break away quickly to get open.

— Especially for his size (6-foot-0, 186), McConkey has no issue getting grimy catches in traffic, or breaking tackles on an end-around.

— Not at all limited to the slot; he had 485 wide snaps and 204 slot snaps through his Georgia career.

MINUSES

— McConkey doesn’t project as an X-iso receiver per se; he can get boxed out of contested catch situations, especially at the boundary.

— He’s at his best when he has space to create, and while he has the foot movement and short-area quickness to beat press off the line, that could be an adjustment in the NFL.

— Bigger, more aggressive NFL cornerbacks could give him fits for a while; he might need a couple more techniques to get free from those guys.

Every passing game is better with one of those “death by a thousand paper cuts” receivers who can get you that 6-8 yards on third-and-whatever. McConkey is absolutely that guy. And if he’s in an offense where designed openings are the order of the day, he’ll use his understanding of the nuances of the position to become a great asset. He’s more than just a little slot guy at the next level.

Kansas City Chiefs select Texas WR Xavier Worthy with the 28th overall pick. Grade: A+

Xavier Worthy gives Patrick Mahomes the most dynamic speed receiver he’s had since Tyreek Hill.

The Chiefs have won two Super Bowls since they traded Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins, but they’ve had to do it with more singles than home runs in a downfield sense, and they’ve had to do it with receivers who were… well, let’s be kind and just say “inconsistent.” When the Chiefs traded up with the Bills to make their pick, everybody knew what was coming. Worthy’s track speed absolutely transfers to the field, and while he has his own consistency issues (get him a JUGS machine, stat), he immediately gives Patrick Mahomes that dynamite vertical target he’s been lacking. And Worthy’s size is less of an issue in an offense where shifts and motions will give him so much open space.

A four-star recruit out of Central East High School in Fresno, California, Xavier Worthy originally committed to Michigan, but academic issues delayed that process, and after considering Alabama, Worthy then chose to roll with Texas and head coach Steve Sarkisian because he liked the ways in which Sarkisian utilized DeVonta Smith, another smaller speed receiver, as Alabama’s offensive coordinator.

Speed is the important word here. Speed kills, and absolute speed kills absolutely. Worthy has absolute speed.

It was easy enough to diagnose that from watching his game tape, but when Worthy went to the 2024 scouting combine and set the record with a 4.21-second 40-yard dash, that was the clincher. And it was not the only instance in which Worthy put up preposterous numbers.

Now, the height/weight profile could be a problem. There are other smaller speed receivers who have succeeded in the NFL, but the guys who have done it in the modern era generally check in a bit heavier — more on the 180-pound scale.

So, will Worthy’s NFL team stick with his weight as is, or try to beef him up a bit without losing any of that explosive potential? We can but wait and see.

PLUSES

— Record-breaking speed shows up on the field; Worthy can house a handoff or a quick screen, and he’s very adept at gaining separation in a straight line downfield.

— Has a nice sense of foot feints to get off press at the line of scrimmage and will then head into Acceleration Mode.

— Turns into his routes with little need to slow down and re-accelerate.

— Wins with late hands to the ball as it’s coming in.

— His ability to get open and up to top speed out of motion could make him a terrifying target in the right NFL offense.

— Not just a go/post/seam guy, Worthy will stick his foot in the ground to re-direct, and he’s got a pretty diverse route profile.

MINUSES

— For all his explosive potential, Worthy had just six catches of 20 or more air yards last season on 23 targets for 234 yards and two touchdowns.

— Focus drops are a legitimate issue; Worthy doesn’t have much of a catch radius, and he isn’t excited about heading into traffic.

— Blocking is more performative than effective.

— Creates YAC with speed as opposed to any sort of physicality; he’s not a contested catch player in the traditional sense, and his after-contact potential is iffy.

Worthy is more of a nuanced receiver than the speed numbers would have you believe. On the other hand, he isn’t as explosively effective as you’d like for a guy with his rare traits. A lot of that can be worked through with NFL coaching, but 5′ 11¼” and 165 pounds is what it is. Worthy’s NFL team had best have a clear plan for his schematic success.

Arizona Cardinals select Missouri DL Darius Robinson with the 27th overall pick. Grade: A

Adding Missouri DL Darius Robinson to their painfully thin defensive line is a major move for head coach Jonathan Gannon.

The Cardinals are light on talent just about everywhere on the roster, and their defensive line is especially, painfully thin. That will change to a degree with the addition of Missouri DL Darius Robinson, who can bully offensive linemen from anywhere on the defensive line. I try to avoid same-school comparisons unless absolutely necessary, but Robinson reminded me so much of Aldon Smith so quickly, the comp stuck. This is a major get for Jonathan Gannon’s defense. 

A three-star recruit at Canton High School in Canton, Michigan, Darius Robinson didn’t play organized football until his junior year. But he still had a couple of pressures as a true freshman in 2019, and worked his way up to First-Team All-SEC in 2023 despite an injury-plagued season. Last year, the 6′ 5⅛”, 285-pound Robinson was good for nine sacks, 42 total pressures, 22 solo tackles, and 22 stops, and he did that all over the defensive line — 81% EDGE, 19% defensive tackle, and 1% nose tackle.

Robinson projects as an ideal every-gap disruptor at the NFL level, and his athletic traits could have him as a plus lineman when his professional career expands.

PLUSES

— Very strong upper body; when Robinson gets into the blocker’s numbers with his hands, he can just collapse his opponent, and he has a great shock move to bring the blocker in and then just shed him aside.

— Freaky wingspan allows him to roll quickly with the inside counter; Robinson can cross your face before you know it.

— Excellent speed to and through the pocket.

— Has a bull-rush with serious potential; Robinson will be a tough go for NFL tackles in power situations. Once he gets a tackle on the track, the tackle is in big trouble.

— Can win everywhere from wide-9 to 3-tech.

— Got it done as a pass-rusher without the help of a lot of blitzes; had several pressures out of three-man fronts.

MINUSES

— Robinson will occasionally get over his skis in open space and just whiff on tackles.

— Needs to be highly aware of pad level and leverage, especially inside, or he’ll lose power battles right off the snap.

— Needs a better plan with his hands to avoid wrestling when he should be penetrating.

— Gets so involved in what’s in front of him that he’ll miss run keys that are a gap over.

I avoid same-school comparisons unless they’re unavoidable. In Robinson’s case, he had me thinking of Aldon Smith right away in the combination of wingspan and play speed. That Robinson generally rolled at 20-20 pounds heavier is a testament to Robinson’s unusual athletic profile for his size. There are things to clean up here, but the raw and refined tools make me think that he may disappear a bit in his rookie season, but over time, he could be a true multi-gap demolition expert.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers select Duke OL Graham Barton with the 26th overall pick. Grade: C-

The Buccaneers’ choice of Duke OL Graham Barton gives them a high-floor player with a very low ceiling.

A lot of analysts I trust and respect love Graham Barton’s game, and while I did see flashes when I watched his tape, I’m not sure exactly what he does at a dominant level. If I’m taking a player in the first round — even the late first round — I want at least one alpha trait. Barton obviously brings intelligence and positional versatility to the field, but when a prospect shows a relatively low ceiling at the NCAA level, what does that mean for his NFL potential? 

A three-star recruit out of Ravenwood High School in Brentwood, Tennessee, Barton was named a Second team Freshman All-America pick by The Athletic, and worked his way up through 40 career games and 39 career starts with the Blue Devils to first team All-ACC honors in 2023. Barton switched from center to left tackle in 2021, and he allowed 10 sacks and 50 total pressures during his time at Duke.

The question is not how Barton will fare in the NFL as a left tackle; he’s certainly going to move inside. His body type doesn’t support staying at the edge, and the tape backs that up. But can he be a credible guard or center at the next level?

PLUSES

— Nasty technician on gap and inside zone runs; Barton gets low and under a defender’s pads to deliver a quick blow off the snap, and he’s got some formidable knockdown blocks. 

— Quick enough to cross the defender’s face and seal the edge. 

— Keeps his speed and balance on pulls; he’s accurate to his target on the move. 

— That target accuracy extends to the second level when he has to go up and take a linebacker out. Barton has outstanding contact balance in space. 

— Can move bigger defenders on the track even if he gets bent back in the rep. He’s got a recovery plan if things don’t go well right away. 

— Center tape from 2020 shows an easy mover with good power at that position.

MINUSES

— We’re not going to get into Barton’s issues as a left tackle, because it’s highly unlikely that he’ll be a left tackle in the NFL, but… his wingspan, arm length, and hand size are low percentile for tackles, and they’re even low for guards/centers. He’s moving inside.

— Can be easily shocked by speed rushers to either side; he’ll need to work on trapping defenders when they move outside of his vision. 

— Barton is hit-and-miss in power situations when he’s not striking the first blow; he really needs that quick aggression to succeed. 

— Has the vision and understanding to pick up stunts and games, though he’ll let some leakage through. 

I’ve seen some first-round talk with Barton, and while he’s got a lot to offer, I’m not so sure. If I’m selecting a guard or center that high, I would want to see obvious dominance at those positions, and Barton (while very good) really doesn’t do that.  

Most likely, someone’s going firm up his IOL assets, and get a plus starter for the next 10 years. Nothing wrong with that.

Green Bay Packers select Arizona OT Jordan Morgan with the 25th overall pick. Grade: B

The Packers got their David Bakhtiari replacement in Arizona OT Jordan Morgan.

The Packers needed a replacement on the left side of their offensive line with David Bakhtiari out of the picture, and with the run on offensive line that had already happened in the first round, they did a nice job in the person of Arizona left tackle Jordan Morgan. Morgan has positional versatility to possibly kick inside to guard, but I’d leave him outside and develop his smooth pass-blocking style, work on his power and leverage, and wind up with a top-tie starter. Morgan is also great on the move and in the screen game.

Detroit Lions select Alabama CB Terrion Arnold with the 24th overall pick. Grade: A

Alabama CB Terrion Arnold is the perfect cornerback for the Detroit Lions and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn.

The Lions don’t have a ton of needs, but cornerback was obviously one. Defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn has had to work in defensive schemes he’d rather not have to because of the talent he had (or didn’t have), but there’s a reason the Lions traded up with the Cowboys to get here. Arnold is perhaps the best man/match cornerback in this class, and he will erase receivers in press coverage. That’s a big win for Glenn, and for the Lions. 

A four-star recruit out of John Paul II High in Tallahassee, Florida, Arnold was a football and basketball star in high school, and at one point was convinced that basketball was his primary sporting avenue before Charlie Ward, who had a similar dual profile at Florida State and was Arnold’s high school basketball coach, convinced him to stick it out. It was the wise choice, as Arnold committed to Alabama over offers from Florida State, Georgia, LSU, Miami, Penn State and Texas A&M.

Arnold locked things down quite nicely for the Crimson tide last season. He allowed 41 receptions on 79 targets for 441 yards, 250 yards after the catch, two touchdowns, five interceptions, 13 pass breakups, and an opponent passer rating of 50.7. Arnold can play just about any route really well, though he’ll need some development on quick, angular routes when he’s in off coverage. When he’s in press, good luck getting anything by him.

PLUSES

— Outstanding man/match corner with step-for-step ability and excellent ball skills to catch and break up passes all over the field

— Hyper-aggressive playing personality when it comes to timing the ball; he thinks it’s more his than yours if you throw it in his area

— Short-area agility and transition speed make him a real pain in tight coverage

— Love him in press coverage where he’s velcroed to the receiver all the way though

— Has an great sense of how to disrupt receivers off the line, which is crucial in today’s NFL with so much quick game

MINUSES

— Had a bad stretch mid-season where Tennessee and Arkansas just killed him with comebacks

— Can be a step late to diagnose and react; you’d like to see him get going just a hair quicker at times

— Grabby at times, which NFL officials might ding him on based on their own competence (ha)

— Needs to work on closing to the target in off coverage

The dings are minor here, though I think that Arnold would be better in a defense with more press coverage than not if you want him to be a Day 1 alpha.

Philadelphia Eagles select Toledo CB Quinyon Mitchell with the 22nd overall pick. Grade: A+

In Toledo’s Quinyon Mitchell, the Eagles got the best cornerback in the 2024 NFL draft class.

Most people didn’t know about Quinyon Mitchell until he blew up the Senior Bowl, but everybody knows about him now. The Eagles were in obvious need of another fast, aggressive cornerback with ball skills to pair with Darius Slay, and to be the team’s Darius Slay of the future. Mitchell absolutely can be that guy — his tape brings to mind both Slay and Richard Sherman. 

A three-star recruit from Williston High School in Williston, Florida, Mitchell committed to Toledo and stuck with that commitment despite a late offer from Illinois. Other programs offering him out of high school were Florida Atlantic, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, South Alabama and South Florida. We’re guessing that the major schools that turned a blind eye probably regret that now.

Mitchell really got his name out there with a great Senior Bowl week, where he definitely answered any questions about his ability to handle receivers from bigger programs than Bowling Green and Ball State (no offense to those fine institutions).

In his 2023 season (his fourth with the Rockets), Mitchell allowed 27 receptions on 62 targets for 290 yards, 67 yards after the catch, no touchdowns, one interception, 14 pass breakups, and an opponent passer rating of 51.1. 2022 saw Mitchell allow 27 catches on 70 targets for 270 yards, 58 yards after the catch, three touchdowns, five interceptions, 13 pass breakups, and an opponent passer rating of 34.8. So, this is no one-year or one-week wonder, and you can throw the small-school dings out the window. Mitchell’s skill set is absolutely transitive to the NFL, and in a “right now” sense.

PLUSES

— Outstanding turn and transition to stick with his target out of press coverage; he’s sticky every step through the route.

— Will slow-play his coverage when playing off, and has a great sense of when to hold back and when to get aggressive to the ball.

— Uses his long arms to envelop and deflect; it’s almost as if his arms are a second defender that gets there before the rest of him does.

— Ferocious closing speed allows him to bait quarterbacks and jump routes at the last second.

— Excellent technique (for the most part) against smaller, quicker receivers running angular routes; a lot of cornerbacks at his height get moved one way or another, but he’s quite practiced at watching the numbers and breaking when he needs to.

MINUSES

— Right now, I like him more in man than in zone; he’s more of a clampdown specialist than a true collaborator in more complex coverages.

— Will occasionally turn his back to the target too long when transitioning from bail, and that can have him losing sight of his assignment.

— Footwork gets a little clunky at times, which NFL coaching should take care of.

— Like a lot of taller cornerbacks, it can take him an extra millisecond to get everything aligned at full speed.

— Willing tackler on run plays and screens, but he’s more pesky than dominant.

At the NFL level, I would play Mitchell much more in press than in off; he showed he’s good in off because he did it so much, but I want him on that receiver from the jump all the way through the route. His Senior Bowl week took care of any issues with talent from bigger schools. First-round talent if you want a big, aggressive CB1.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars select LSU WR Brian Thomas Jr. with the 23rd overall pick. Grade: A

Malik Nabers was obviously LSU’s WR1, but Brian Thomas was no second banana. Now, he could be the Jaguars’ WR1.

Well, we can probably stop bashing Jaguars GM Trent Baalke for allowing his receiver group to atrophy with the departure of Calvin Ridley. Malik Nabers was obviously LSU’s WR1, but Thomas was no second banana. He brings a great (and much-needed) combination of field-stretching speed, route correctness, and the ability to get open just about anywhere. He’s not a contested-catch bruiser, but the Jaguars already have those guys. What they didn’t have was a receiver who makes post safeties nervous. Now, they do. Add in the value of trading back with the Vikings, and this is a very nice pick.

A four-star recruit out of Walker High School in Walker, Louisiana, Thomas was a football and basketball star at that level, and received offers from big-time programs in both sports. He chose football, and he chose LSU over Alabama, Georgia, and Texas A&M.

After two seasons of middling production, and with Jayden Daniels as his quarterback, Thomas caught 68 passes on 87 targets for 1,177 yards and 17 touchdowns in 2023. On passes of 20 or more air yards, Thomas caught 15 passes on 22 targets for 670 yards and 12 touchdowns. Thomas did most of his work on go, seam, dig, and hitch routes, often against defenses that were playing off to respect the Tigers’ deep passing game.

PLUSES

— He’s creeping death on go and seam routes; nice build-up speed, and then whammo — he’s gone.

— Extensive library of foot fakes both at the line of scrimmage and when in open space; he knows how to get open.

— Leans into and out of his routes to create openings, and the burner speed comes right back up.

— Leverages his routes to coverage; would work well in any option route offense.

— Great at slow-playing cornerbacks off the line of scrimmage before turning on the jets.

MINUSES

— Could be more sudden on quick cuts.

— Drops show up on tape and could be an issue at the next level.

— Will face a crapton more press coverage than he did in college.

— Not a contested-catch receiver per se; his game is about getting free from those situations.

— Can he feast on more than go/seam and hitch stuff? Remains to be seen.

I love Thomas as a complementary speed target. I’m not sure if he’s ready to be a true WR1 just yet, but as those designations are different for every NFL team, the right system could give him a boost.

Miami Dolphins select Penn State EDGE Chop Robinson with the 21st overall pick. Grade: B

Chop Robinson gives the Dolphins’ pass rush all kinds of speed and juice, but he’ll need to be schemed up for success.

This seemed like a smart place for Chop Robinson to land. I didn’t have him graded as I did Laiatu Latu, Jared Verse, or Dallas Turner, but those guys were all gone at 21, and there’s a bit of a drop after Robinson to the second tier of edge defenders. As long as Dolphins defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver puts it together for Robinson so he can use his blinding speed to the pocket as his primary attribute, it’s all good. He’s a bit of a one-trick pony at this point, but the one trick is pretty impressive. 

A four-star recruit out of Quince Orchard High School in Gaithersburg, Maryland, Demeioun “Chop” Robinson began his collegiate career with the Maryland Terrapins in 2021, racking up two sacks and 13 total pressures in just 82 pass-rushing snaps. He then transferred to Penn State in time for the 2022 season, which is when his pass-rush profile really expanded. Then, he had five sacks and 48 total pressures in 267 pass-rushing snaps, along with 16 solo tackles and 17 stops.

2023 looked to be another strong season for the 6′ 2⅞”, 254-pound Robinson, but he worked through injuries, and had three sacks and 26 total pressures in 148 pass-rushing snaps.

Robinson’s resume is smaller than one might like as a result, but the tape tells a clear story — he’s got speed and athleticism for the EDGE position that you rarely see. He’ll need some schematic assistance to bring out everything at the NFL level, but he’s got a lot of rocket sauce.

PLUSES

— Ridiculous combine measurables show up on tape; Robinson is so fast off the snap and will defeat tackles with that first step if his opponents aren’t set.

— Can knife through double teams as an inside mug rusher and a stand-up 3-tech or nose. Has a really nice feint crossover move and an exceptional inside counter.

— Works around the arc smoothly, and has the ability to lean into the turn to get under the blocker’s hands.

— Uses leverage against the blocker to further accentuate his speed when he closes to the pocket.

— Slap/swat move around the edge can be lethal; tackles had better be ready for it.

— Not a particularly powerful defender, but he’ll get speed-to-power bull-rushes.

MINUSES

— Robinson’s speed allows him to beat double teams before they’re set, but if they are set, he can be negated by power pretty quickly.

— Blockers who align to him in time can eat his lunch. This will probably be even more of an NFL issue.

— Could stand to accentuate his hand work, especially in those power situations.

— Can create tackles for loss in the run game with that quickness, but if you need a guy to grapple through the snap, that’s not his fastball.

— Has a nice sense of control for all that speed, but there is the occasional inevitable whiff.

Robinson has one speed — balls-out, all the time. You’re not adding him to your team to win with power; you’re doing so to rain pure hell in the backfield over and over. That he did exceedingly well in college, and with a few tweaks, he’ll be dynamic-to-dominant in the NFL.