Category: 2024 NFL Draft Grades

Miami Dolphins select Penn State EDGE Chop Robinson with the 21st overall pick. Grade: B

Chop Robinson gives the Dolphins’ pass rush all kinds of speed and juice, but he’ll need to be schemed up for success.

This seemed like a smart place for Chop Robinson to land. I didn’t have him graded as I did Laiatu Latu, Jared Verse, or Dallas Turner, but those guys were all gone at 21, and there’s a bit of a drop after Robinson to the second tier of edge defenders. As long as Dolphins defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver puts it together for Robinson so he can use his blinding speed to the pocket as his primary attribute, it’s all good. He’s a bit of a one-trick pony at this point, but the one trick is pretty impressive. 

A four-star recruit out of Quince Orchard High School in Gaithersburg, Maryland, Demeioun “Chop” Robinson began his collegiate career with the Maryland Terrapins in 2021, racking up two sacks and 13 total pressures in just 82 pass-rushing snaps. He then transferred to Penn State in time for the 2022 season, which is when his pass-rush profile really expanded. Then, he had five sacks and 48 total pressures in 267 pass-rushing snaps, along with 16 solo tackles and 17 stops.

2023 looked to be another strong season for the 6′ 2⅞”, 254-pound Robinson, but he worked through injuries, and had three sacks and 26 total pressures in 148 pass-rushing snaps.

Robinson’s resume is smaller than one might like as a result, but the tape tells a clear story — he’s got speed and athleticism for the EDGE position that you rarely see. He’ll need some schematic assistance to bring out everything at the NFL level, but he’s got a lot of rocket sauce.

PLUSES

— Ridiculous combine measurables show up on tape; Robinson is so fast off the snap and will defeat tackles with that first step if his opponents aren’t set.

— Can knife through double teams as an inside mug rusher and a stand-up 3-tech or nose. Has a really nice feint crossover move and an exceptional inside counter.

— Works around the arc smoothly, and has the ability to lean into the turn to get under the blocker’s hands.

— Uses leverage against the blocker to further accentuate his speed when he closes to the pocket.

— Slap/swat move around the edge can be lethal; tackles had better be ready for it.

— Not a particularly powerful defender, but he’ll get speed-to-power bull-rushes.

MINUSES

— Robinson’s speed allows him to beat double teams before they’re set, but if they are set, he can be negated by power pretty quickly.

— Blockers who align to him in time can eat his lunch. This will probably be even more of an NFL issue.

— Could stand to accentuate his hand work, especially in those power situations.

— Can create tackles for loss in the run game with that quickness, but if you need a guy to grapple through the snap, that’s not his fastball.

— Has a nice sense of control for all that speed, but there is the occasional inevitable whiff.

Robinson has one speed — balls-out, all the time. You’re not adding him to your team to win with power; you’re doing so to rain pure hell in the backfield over and over. That he did exceedingly well in college, and with a few tweaks, he’ll be dynamic-to-dominant in the NFL.

Cincinnati Bengals select Georgia OT Amarius Mims with the 19th overall pick. Grade: C (or A)

The Bengals got an athletic freak in Amarius Mims, but how does that help them now?

The only way to grade this pick is “Incomplete.” Amarius Mims is from another planet with his measurables, and the Bengals needed help at offensive tackle. But given Mims’ lack of experience and injury history, can be the one to help Joe Burrow stay healthy in the short term? Last season, Cincinnati’s tackles combined to allow 15 sacks and 100 total pressures. Perhaps a more immediate starter might have been a better idea, especially with multiple Bengals (Trey Hendrickson, Tee Higgins) asking to be traded out of town. 

A composite five-star recruit out of Bleckley County High School in Cochran, Georgia, Mims stayed close to home by committing to Georgia, and he saw action in 2021 and 2022 as a reserve with 121 snaps at right tackle in 2021, and 383 in 2022. Mims worked through injuries in 2023 that limited his snaps to 297, but when he was on the field, he allowed no sacks and one total pressure in 168 pass-blocking reps. Why is Mims talked about as a first-round prospect with such limited experience? Athletic traits. At 6′ 7¾” ad 340 pounds, Mims brings a size/speed/agility profile to the position we don’t often see. 

Mims’ NFL team will need to work with him on several foundational constructs before he’s able to fully realize that amazing potential, but as raw as his tape can be, you can also see why he’s prized as a prospect, and why he could be utterly amazing over time.

PLUSES

— Pure “Planet Theory” human being whose spider chart looks like science fiction; there just aren’t many people this big who can move like he does.

— Can move just about anybody in a straight line against their will.

— Shockingly agile on the move; Mims can get upfield quickly on screens and pulls and just bulldoze anybody in his way.

— Upper-body strength is comical; he’ll latch onto a defender and wind up just pushing and throwing the poor guy out of the octagon.

MINUSES

— Lack of experience shows up in limited technique; Mims needs work on his hands to latch and maintain through the block. He’s too leaky to either side to give up pressure.

— Also needs work on taking vision to execution, because he’s far too vulnerable to speed rushers crossing his face and zapping him with inside counters.

— Pass set is a work in progress; he’s more of a catcher than a fluid mover through the arc.

— Stunts and games might be a problem until he gets the hang of reading things through the play.

Mims is unquestionably a developmental prospect, but when you watch his tape, you understand exactly why some NFL team is highly likely to throw that first-round flier in. Over time, and with the right coaching, he has the athletic potential to be a rare prospect at right or left tackle.

Denver Broncos select Oregon QB Bo Nix with the 12th overall pick. Grade: B+

The Broncos get Oregon QB Bo Nix, who may be the perfect instrument for Sean Payton’s orchestra.

Two picks after the Vikings really reached for J.J. McCarthy, the Broncos got Bo Nix, who I think would have been a better fit in Kevin O’Connell’s offense, and certainly is a good fit for what Sean Payton wants to do. A coach’s son who impressed everyone he’s talked with in the NFL with his understanding of the game, Nix has all the attributes to be the perfect instrument for one of the most exacting offensive conductors in the league. 

Bo Nix transferred from Auburn after the 2021 season. In two seasons with the Ducks, Nix displayed a major uptick in efficiency and production, completing 74.9% of his passes for 10.4 yards per attempt, after completing 54.9% of his passes for 6.9 YPA with Auburn.

Last season, the Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year completed 361 of 467 passes for 4,454 yards, 45 touchdowns, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 135.7. Only LSU’s Jayden Daniels had a higher passer rating in 2023 among quarterbacks in this draft class.

On throws of 20 or more air yards, Nix completed 26 of 51 passes for 999 yards, 13 touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 119.9.  Under pressure, Nix completed 43 of 64 passes for 619 yards, nine touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 131.4. When blitzed, Nix completed 86 of 126 passes for 1,148 yards, 21 touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 136.5. Nix also gained 256 yards and scored six touchdowns on 34 carries. https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/lists/bo-nix-2024-nfl-draft-greg-cosell/

PLUSES

— Not a lot of deep passing volume, but clearly has the ability to turn it loose downfield with anticipation and accuracy.

— Compact, consistent over-the-top delivery which he retains under pressure and on the move.

— Will work through his second and third progressions to make the right throw.

— Can be a real load to tackle on designed runs and scrambles, and he has a good eye for open gaps.

— Mobility extends to boot and pocket movement throws.

MINUSES

— Mechanics can get a bit off-kilter, leading to some inaccurate passes.

— Accuracy is random to a point; occasionally he’ll just uncork one in the general direction of his target when he should be more specific.

— Arm arrogance can be a plus, but can also get him into throws he shouldn’t make.

— Still working on the nuances of off-speed pitches; fade balls and deep timing throws are mixed bags.

I like Nix as a developmental starter in a highly structured system with some wiggle room as he puts the little things together. There’s a lot to like, but some room for growth. 

Minnesota Vikings select Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy with the 10th overall pick. Grade: D

The Vikings moving up to select J.J. McCarthy is an iffy move at best.

J.J. McCarthy is a good quarterback. If you trade up into the top 10 of a draft to get a good quarterback, as opposed to a field-tilting quarterback, you had better hope everything goes well around him. Head coach Kevin O’Connell has the playbook and the weapons to make the most of McCarthy, but the low ceiling shows up all over his tape. This seems like a misunderstanding of his NFL potential, and that’s why the grade is so low. 

Jonathan James McCarthy was a five-star prospect out of Nazareth Academy in Le Grange Park Illinois, and later the IMG Academy in Bradenton, Florida. He chose Michigan over several major programs, and became the highest-ranked recruit Jim Harbaugh ever signed.

In his second season as the Wolverines’ starting quarterback, McCarthy was a big part of Michigan’s national championship journey. He completed 240 of 333 passes for 2,991 yards, 22 touchdowns, four interceptions, and a passer rating of 116.6.

As a deep passer, McCarthy completed 25 passes of 20 or more air yards on 46 attempts for 706 yards, 10 touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 130.0. When pressured, McCarthy completed 52 of 82 passes for 780 yards, eight touchdowns, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 111.8. As a runner, McCarthy gained 340 yards and scored three touchdowns on 39 carries.

PLUSES

— Outstanding downfield ball placement when he does turn it loose and has open windows.

— Plus athlete who can win on designed runs.

— Has the capacity to throw his receivers open.

— Can work off-schedule to a point.

MINUSES

— Too often late to diagnose and turn it loose; needs to speed up his clock for any kind of NFL success.

— Hospital balls can be a problem.

— Must develop a greater understanding of advanced coverage concepts.

— Won’t see the kinds of designed openings he feasted on with Michigan.

McCarthy’s tape doesn’t really blow you away, but he does just about everything well enough, and consistently enough, where you can see the path to a starting quarterback in the NFL. Given his success under Jim Harbaugh, you know that he understands pro concepts to an elevated degree. If you’re looking for a second-round game executive (H/T to Nate Tice of The Athletic for that term; it’s a great way to describe a plus-level game manager) in the Kirk Cousins mold, this could be your guy.

When it comes to McCarthy’s NFL transition, the real question is: When the modern game is more about creating and preventing explosive plays than anything else, how does a game executive fit into that, and how do McCarthy’s issues with throwing deep into tight windows limit him and his ultimate ceiling? Cousins, who is the obvious comp and a fourth-round pick in 2012 out of Michigan State, eventually figured out how to be a great deep thrower, but there are 10 guys for every Kirk Cousins with a similar athletic profile who never did. McCarthy is more of a gamble than a safe pick in that regard.