The subject was one-score games in the NFL, a stat that is as glaring as any when winning teams — and losing teams — are examined.
As Week 18 approaches with 12 of the 14 playoff spots already decided (and with five teams vying for the final two berths), it seemed like a good time to see how the defining factor of those close games has played out in the first 16 games of the season.
Some of the numbers are so other-worldly, they are almost difficult to believe, especially when it comes to the three teams with the league’s best records.
One, the Kansas City Chiefs at 15-1, have clinched the No. 1 seed in the AFC. In the NFL, the 14-2 Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings will play Sunday night with the winner crowned as the NFC North division winner and the requisite top seed in the conference.
Those three teams are a stunning 27-3 combined in one-score games (the Chiefs are a dazzling 11-0) and they are also 13-1 in games decided by a field goal or less. Each also has one victory in overtime.
At the bottom of this story, you can see the records for all 32 teams grouped by the 12 teams in the playoffs, five with a chance in the final weekend and the other 15, including the Arizona Cardinals, that are on the outside looking in.
Perhaps it’s no surprise that the 12 playoff teams have an 81-36 record (69.2 percent) in one-score games and are 37-17 in games decided by three points or fewer (68.5 percent). After all, those 12 teams have a combined overall record of 141-51 (73.4 percent). They are 6-1 in overtime games.
The flip side is that the 15 non-playoff teams are 46-78 in one-score games (37.1 percent), 20-35 (36.3 percent) in games decided by a field goal or less and 4-8 in overtime games. Overall, their season record is 73-167 (30.4 percent).
The five teams in the hunt in Week 18 include two 9-7 teams and three that are 8-8 for a combined mark of 42-38 (52.5 percent). In one-score games, they are 16-27 (37.2 percent) and 7-8 in field goal or less games (46.7 percent). They are also 4-4 in overtime games.
The Cardinals season has ebbed and flowed thanks to the one-score game results. After a 1-3 start, they were 0-2 in one-score games. What followed was a 5-1 stretch that included a 3-0 record in one-score games, all by three points or less. Now, they are 1-5 in the last six and 0-3 in one-score games to make the record 3-5. Flip only two of those and they would be 9-7 with still a chance of winning the division.
That’s the fine line between winning and losing in the NFL. It’s also true that teams that find ways to make key plays when it matters win those close games.
After the overtime loss to the Carolina Panthers in Week 16, offensive coordinator Drew Petzing talked about the reality of the NFL.
“You realize how hard it is to win,” he said. “I think that’s something that people in this league, the longer they’re in it, realize. They don’t take good seasons, good games, good performances for granted because it’s hard.”
When he was asked how much of that reality is inherent in the number of one-score games, which this year is 55.5 percent of the total games played and 24.2 percent have been decided by a field goal or less, and how a play here or there could have made a difference, he said, “Absolutely. And I think that’s one of the hardest things and sometimes that’s a play call. Sometimes that’s a physical play. Sometimes it’s a mental decision and I’d say most games in the NFL, you could probably pick two to five plays if these went the other way, this game is completely different. And so, you have to fight so hard because your margin for error, and we’ve talked about it, is just so small.”
Petzing expounded on it this week after the four-point loss to the Rams when another reality is how a team can improve their average points per game by one touchdown and the overall improvement can be so significant that it can change the outcome of three or four games.
“It absolutely could,” he said. “They always show the stat like, if every one-score game was flipped, here’s everyone’s record and it’s like crazy. That’s the nature of this business. So our job is to fight for every inch to make sure that we can flip those. And that could be a play, it could be a scheme, it could be something we’re doing operationally, something I’m doing as a play-caller. Yes, seven points can change three or four games and all of a sudden, it’s a completely different season in either direction. That’s real.”
So it was that head coach Jonathan Gannon was asked Monday what it takes to consistently win more close games. He said, “You look around the league — we watch all the games around the league — and the magic formula is, I told the team this today, maximizing every second you’ve got to improve. You never know what’s going to turn the tide in a game, what plays are going to be ‘quote-unquote’ critical to winning and losing the game.
“They all matter, and what we do on a daily basis, how we’re operating and how we’re behaving from meetings to the weight room, to walkthrough, to practice, to full speed. Everything. It all matters and you have to do it at a high level. I would say, starting with me, we obviously have to do it at a higher level. We’re not there, but we’re not that far off either. I really believe that, so it’s a learning and a growing experience, and we have to be better.”
NFL records in one-score games
The first numbers are overall record, the second is the record in one-score games, the third (included in total) is the record in games with three-point margins or less.
Playoff teams (12)
Kansas City 15-1: 11-0/5-0 (one OT win)
Detroit 14-2: 7-2/4-0 (one OT win)
Minnesota 14-2: 9-1/4/1 (one OT win)
Buffalo 13-3: 5-2/3-2
Baltimore 11-5: 5-5/4-2 (one OT win)
Green Bay 11-5: 5-4/3-3
Washington 11-5: 7-4/4-1 (one OT win)
L.A. Chargers 10-6: 4-4/0-2
L.A. Rams 10-6: 8-4/2-0 (one OT win, one OT loss)
Philadelphia 13-3: 7-2/2-2
Pittsburgh 10-6: 6-3/2-2
Houston 9-7: 7-5/4-2
In the hunt (5)
Denver 9-7: 1-6/1/1 (one OT loss)
Tampa Bay 9-7: 2-5/1-2 (one OT win, one OT loss)
Cincinnati 8-8: 3-7/0-3 (one OT win, one OT loss)
Atlanta 8-8: 6-5/3-1 (one OT win, one OT loss)
Miami 8-8: 4-4/2-1 (one OT win)
Non-playoff teams (15)
Seattle 9-7: 5-2/3-1 (one OT win, one OT loss)
Arizona 7-9: 3-5/3-1 (one OT loss)
Dallas 7-9: 5-3/2-1
Indianapolis 7-9: 7-5/4-3
San Francisco 6-10: 2-6/0-3
New Orleans 5-11: 2-5/2-4
Carolina 4-12: 3-3/2-2 (two OT wins, one OT loss)
Chicago 4-12: 2-7/0-4 (one OT loss)
Jacksonville 4-12: 3-9/1/3
Las Vegas 4-12: 3-4/1/1
N.Y. Jets 4-12: 3-7/0-4 (one OT loss)
Cleveland 3-13: 3-3/0/0
New England 3-13: 2-6/1-4 (two OT losses)
N.Y. Giants: 3-13: 1-7/0-3 (one OT loss)
Tennessee 3-13: 2-6/1-1 (one OT win)
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