In the NFL, it is common for teams to improve significantly in one year. Since 2002, there have been 20 teams go from last place to first place in their division. It didn’t happen in 2019, but it is rare that doesn’t happen.
So who are the teams most likely to make that jump?
According to the Washington Post’s Neil Greenburg, that team is the Los Angeles Chargers. However, not far behind are the Arizona Cardinals.
The odds aren’t high.
The Chargers are given a 10 percent chance to win the AFC West and the Cardinals have a seven percent chance and have a projected record of 7-9 in 2020.
There is a lot of optimism in Arizona following the acquisition of DeAndre Hopkins as the Cardinals’ new No. 1 wide receiver. He, along with quarterback Kyler Murray, the Offensive Rookie of the Year, and running back Kenyan Drake give second-year head coach Kliff Kingsbury the offensive weapons to keep pace with any team in the NFL.
They could also get some momentum early. After facing the San Francisco 49ers in Week 1 they are favored in the next two games against the Washington Redskins (minus-7) and Detroit Lions (minus-3) plus a pick ’em on the road against the Carolina Panthers in Week 4. Since 2002, NFL teams that start 3-1 have averaged 10 wins by the end of the season.
The Cardinals play in one of the most competitive divisions in the league. The San Francisco 49ers were NFC champs. The Seattle Seahawks always make the playoffs and the Los Angeles Rams are still very talented. and will be just two seasons removed from a Super Bowl appearance.
Of all the last-place teams from 2019, the Cardinals appear to be the closest to breaking out. The Chargers moved on from potential Hall of Fame QB Philip Rivers. Other teams like the Cincinnati Bengals, Miami Dolphins, Washington Redskins and Jacksonville Jaguars either still look like bad teams or might get incrementally better.
The Detroit Lions will get Matthew Stafford back after being injured, so they could be an option, but even with Stafford, it isn’t like they have been a great team.
The Cardinals have the right mix of continuity, upgrades and a promising quarterback.
No one expects them to take over the NFC West, but they probably would be the least surprising team to do it if things all went the right way.
The truth is they were very close to an 8-8 team last season. Had their defense been just below average instead of arguably the worst in the league, they would have been a much more competitive team.
They have significantly improved on defense, at least on paper. They have continuity on offense, a quarterback who will improve, a full season of Kenyan Drake and a head coach in Kliff Kingsbury who actually looks like a pretty good hire now.
Of all the possible Cinderella stories for 2020, the Cardinals have the script to make it happen.
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Listen to the latest from Cards Wire’s Jess Root on his podcast, Rise Up, See Red. Subscribe on Apple podcasts or Stitcher Radio.
Ep. 267
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Ep. 266
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