Canelo Alvarez and Gennadiy Golovkin have fought on even terms in two previous fights, regardless of how you scored those fights, a draw in 2017 and a majority decision for Alvarez the following year. Both fights took place at 160 pounds.
Can we expect the same in the third installment – at 168 – Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas?
The oddsmakers don’t think so for an obvious reason: Alvarez is 32, Golovkin 40. How could an old, shop-worn version of Triple-G possibly beat one of the best active fighters who is in his prime?
Here is a breakdown of the fight.
CANELO ALVAREZ (57-2-2, 39 KOs) VS. GENNADIY GOLOVKIN III (42-1-1, 37 KOs)
Date: Saturday, Sept. 17
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
TV: Pay-per-view
Cost: $84.99 ($64.99 for DAZN subscribers)
Division: Super middleweight (168-pound limit)
At stake: Alvarez’s undisputed championship
Current win streak: Alvarez 0; Golovkin 4
Ages: Alvarez 32; Golovkin 40
Stances: Both orthodox
Trajectory: Canelo at peak; Golovkin declining
Also fighting: Jesse Rodriguez vs. Israel Gonzalez, junior bantamweights (for Rodriguez’s WBC title); Ali Akhmedov vs. Gabriel Rosado, super middleweights; Austin Williams vs. Kieron Conway, middleweights.
Worth watching (up to five stars)? ****
SKILL SET
Alvarez
Alvarez wasn’t good enough to beat bigger and better Dmitry Bivol in May but he remains an excellent boxer. He’s clever at closing the distance on his opponents, breaking them down and either stopping them or winning wide decisions while keeping defense in mind all the while. He also has a great chin, which served him well in the first two fights with Golovkin.
Golovkin
Triple-G is a power-boxer, perhaps akin to Shane Mosley. He attacks his opponents with the intention of knocking them out but he does so in an intelligent way. Make no mistake: He can box. His problem now might be that his body can’t do what it once did. He’s not as quick, his reflexes aren’t as sharp and stamina could be a problem.
Edge: Alvarez
PUNCHING POWER
Alvarez
Alvarez isn’t a one-punch knockout artist but he has heavy hands, meaning his punches are damaging even when they don’t end fights. His 39 knockouts – including three consecutive stoppages at 168 pounds – speak for themselves. And, yes, some of his fights did end with one big shot.
Golovkin
Golovkin has been one of the biggest punchers of his generation. And he can still rely on his power, as we saw in knockout victories over Kamil Szeremeta and Ryota Murata in his past two outings. Those fights took place at 160 pounds, however. Can he carry his power to 168? We’ll see.
Edge: Golovkin
EXPERIENCE
Alvarez
Alvarez, who turned pro at 15 years old, has faced every conceivable boxing style over his 17-year career. And most of those fights have taken place on the biggest stages, which means nothing will faze him. He’s 17-2-1 in world title fights, not counting secondary titles. He’s as seasoned as it gets.
Golovkin
Golovkin also has vast experience. He’s 17-1-1 in championship fights, although Alvarez has faced more elite-level opponents. He reportedly has been boxing for almost 30 years, amateur and pro. He, too, has seen it all.
Edge: Even
DURABILITY
Alvarez
The fact Alvarez has gone 24 rounds with a big puncher like Golovkin without being seriously hurt speaks volumes about his ability to take a good shot. And he has shown no signs of wear and tear in spite of his long career, a testament to his fitness and toughness.
Golovkin
Golovkin also is a tough guy. However, at 40, his body might be in the process of breaking down after a number of taxing battles. It looked that way against Sergiy Derevyanchenko, although he rebounded with two knockouts. And his ability to take a good body shot has been suspect for years.
Edge: Alvarez
INTANGIBLES
Alvarez
Alvarez is coming off of a loss for the first time in almost a decade. How will that impact him? Will it only have made him hungrier and more determined? Or will his confidence have taken a hit? That could play a role in the fight. Of course, he’ll have support. He’s been with reigning Trainer of the Year Eddy Reynoso since he was a kid, which should provide a layer of comfort for him.
Golovkin
Golovkin still feels he deserved to win the first two fights with Alvarez, both of which took place in the same arena. That raises the question: Can Triple-G get a fair decision against a cash cow like Alvarez in Las Vegas? Many people have their doubts. Golovkin and trainer Johnathan Banks seem to have developed a good rapport. The corner is strong.
Edge: Alvarez
PREDICTION
Golovkin, proud, strong and experienced, will put up a good fight for while, raising the possibility of an upset. However, by mid-fight, Alvarez’s pressure – hard shots to the body, combinations to the head – will have begun to wear the old man down. And by the eighth or ninth round Triple-G will be in trouble. The feeling here is that his determination will allow him to hear the final bell but a late knockout is a realistic possibility.
Alvarez by unanimous decision
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