Is Canelo Alvarez in decline?
Some believe that’s obvious after several so-so performances. Others might point out that a now-repaired wrist injury has played a role in his struggles. And Alvarez himself says anyone who is writing him off will be surprised, starting with his pay-per-view fight against John Ryder on Saturday in Mexico.
“I’m so excited to show everybody they’re wrong,” the Mexican star said.
Alvarez (58-2-2, 39 KOs) has been one of the most successful fighters in the world over the past decade but he has known his share of setbacks.
I won’t count his one-sided loss to Floyd Mayweather in 2013, when Alvarez was a tender 23. He took a big swing and missed against an all-time great.
And he bounced back by delivering some of his most memorable victories, including unforgettable knockouts of James Kirkland and Amir Khan, and decisions over elite foes Erislandy Lara and Miguel Cotto between 2014 and 2016.
Alvarez began to look vulnerable in 2017. That’s when he escaped with a draw against high-powered rival Gennadiy Golovkin that most observers called a robbery. He won the rematch by a majority decision but, again, it wasn’t convincing.
Of course, there is no shame is fighting on roughly even terms with a future Hall of Famer like Golovkin. At the same time, he lost whatever aura of invincibility he had built since the Mayweather fight.
And that hasn’t really changed since the first two fights with Golovkin. He gave a strong performance in a unanimous-decision victory over proven veteran Daniel Jacobs in May 2019 but it was a close fight, further evidence that he isn’t necessarily a dominating fighter against top-level opposition.
More so-so performances followed.
Alvarez made a bold move up to 175 pounds to challenge then-titleholder Sergey Kovalev in November of that year, although the 36-year-old Russian was deemed vulnerable. Alvarez delivered a knockout but it took him 10-plus rounds and the fight was essentially even at the time of the stoppage.
He followed that was a successful series of fights against good, not necessarily special opponents intended to unify all four super middleweight titles, victories over Callum Smith, Billy Joe Saunders and Caleb Plant.
I opined then that Alvarez put too much emphasis on collecting titles rather than facing the best possible opponents, including David Benavidez and Jermall Charlo. Alvarez realized his goal of becoming undisputed champion but fans weren’t necessarily inspired.
Then came the ill-fated fight with Bivol in May of last year, when the talented, naturally bigger Russian knocked Alvarez from the top of many pound-for-pound lists with a unanimous-decision victory that wasn’t as close as the scores (115-113 across the board) indicated. Bivol outclassed Alvarez.
And a lackluster decision over Golovkin in their third fight last September didn’t help much to rehabilitate Alvarez’s reputation. To many, that performance removed any doubt that he’s no longer the dominating fighter of the past.
Jose Benavidez Sr., David Benavidez’s father and trainer, is in that group. The elder Benavidez believes Alvarez has thus far declined to fight his son because he knows he has slipped.
“El Canelo has been losing his calibration little by littles” Jose Benavidez Sr. told Izquierdazo.com. “… The body no longer has the same speed, the same strength, the same reflexes are no longer there.”
Some, including Jose Benavidez Sr., have suggested that simple wear and tear has taken a toll on Alvarez, who turned pro as a 15-year-old in 2005. That means he’s been doing this full time for almost 18 years.
Some wonder whether the hunger is gone. After all, he has made 100 times more money than he could possibly spend. And how much more can he accomplish? He’s already a four-division titleholder and future Hall of Famer.
And some might suggest that the right-hander’s left wrist injury played a role in his sub-par performances of late. He had surgery shortly after the Golovkin fight in September.
Perhaps a now-healthy Alvarez will look like the dominating fighter of old in the Ryder bout. He’s only 32, an age when most elite fighters are still not far beyond their primes. Alvarez expects to remind fans of what made him great even if he’s not at his peak.
“I feel very good,” he said. “I have a lot of years in my career, 17 years as a pro. I’ve had injuries, too. I’m not at my best but I’m very motivated and I’m very happy to be in the gym, to train at 100 percent, and they’re going to see what is coming.
“I’m very excited and motivated. Be careful with that.”
Alvarez’s fate is in his own hands. He should defeat Ryder, who is a solid, but limited opponent. Then he intends to fight Bivol again in September in hopes of avenging his devastating setback.
If he meets Bivol a second time and manages to win, he will have reclaimed a lot of what he lost. If he loses, it will confirm what so many believe: That the best of Canelo Alvarez is in the distant past.
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