The Indianapolis Colts brought in quarterback Philip Rivers, which should bring about better results for fantasy football. This is especially true for wide receiver T.Y. Hilton.
Having dealt with injuries over the last two seasons, Hilton hasn’t been able to keep up with being a WR1 (top-12). His 2019 season was riddled with injuries, and the lack of a stable passing attack really downed the entire offense from a fantasy perspective.
But now Hilton is (hopefully) healthy and he has a quarterback willing to throw the ball downfield. Those two aspects alone won’t bring him into the WR1 tier, but it does give reason for optimism when targeting him for the 2020 season.
Target share
There is no denying Hilton will be the alpha in the wide receiver room. When healthy, the passing offense runs through him and that’s not going to change with Rivers under center. If anything, Hilton being the No. 1 should boost his opportunity with Rivers.
Throughout his career, Rivers has had some solid WR1s. Lately, it has been in the form of Keenan Allen. Despite strong weapons being present in the Chargers offense, Allen has held a strong presence in terms of target share.
In 2019, Keenan Allen had 25.9% target share of the offense, good for seventh-highest in the NFL. He also was responsible for 53.9% of Chargers wide receiver fantasy points, which was good for third-most in the NFL—per the Fantasy Footballers.
Hilton’s numbers are a bit skewed having played only 10 games this season. His total target share numbers come out to be a 14% target share in the offense while being responsible for 29% of the team’s wide receiver fantasy points.
However, in games that Hilton played, he held a 22.9% target share. Having that in a bad passing offense with an inconsistent passer in Brissett means there is a lot of room for growth to be one of the top target shareholders in the NFL.
Deep passing return?
To say the Cotls didn’t throw downfield in 2019 is an understatement. Hilton saw just 29 targets on throws that traveled more than 10 yards in the air. With Rivers, that shouldn’t be a problem.
Rivers finished the 2019 season with the third-most intended air-yards and the 12th-highest average depth of target. Compare that to Brissett, who was 21st and 23rd respectively in those categories.
Any help?
Outside of Hilton, there aren’t a lot of strong options in the passing game for the Colts. There is certainly promise and upside but Hilton is a sure thing. It wouldn’t be a shock at all to see Rivers and Hilton get on the same page quickly given the lack of high-end talent in the passing game.
There’s upside with Nyheim Hines, who could be a special fantasy asset in 2020. There’s also some upside with Parris Campbell if he can stay healthy. However, no one will bring the juice like Hilton if he’s able to stay healthy. And that lack of help around him will secure him furthermore as the alpha in the offense.
Conclusion
Hilton’s days as a locked and loaded WR1 are probably behind him. He’s still an electric talent capable of carrying a passing offense, but his injury history has caught up to him recently.
That said, the addition of Rivers will do wonders for Hilton’s fantasy outlook. He might not be a WR1 but given his skill set, target share and overall role in the offense, Ghost should return to a solid WR2 tier while having WR1 upside in certain weeks.