(In this series, Touchdown Wire’s Mark Schofield takes a look at one important metric per NFL team to uncover a crucial problem to solve for the 2020 season. In this installment, it’s time to look at the Cincinnati Bengals. A new face steps in as the potential franchise quarterback, but there are concerns on the other side of the football).
The excitement in the air regarding the upcoming football season in Cincinnati is almost palpable, and for the first time in a while, it has almost as much to do with the professional game than it does with the Buckeyes.
Drafting a quarterback with the first overall selection tends to generate some buzz.
After seeing Joe Burrow lead the LSU Tigers to a National Championship this past college season, and pick up a Heisman Trophy along the way, you can excuse Bengals fan for believing that he can bring some of that magic to the AFC North. When you start to look at the pieces the Bengals will have in place around him on the offensive side of the ball, you can understand their excitement even more. Cincinnati returns running back Joe Mixon, a talented and well-rounded RB. After missing all of last season wide receiver A.J. Green is expected to be back on the field, joining Tyler Boyd, John Ross and second-round draft pick Tee Higgins. If the organization can get some consistency from the offensive line, this could be a very good offense.
On the other side of the football, however, there are questions, and those will be our focus today.
We can start with scoring defense, and build the case from there with no shortage of evidence. The Bengals allowed 26.3 points per game in 2019, eighth-most in the league. Opposition offenses converted 89 of 209 third down attempts against the Bengals, a conversion rate of 42.6%, also eighth-most in the league. Cincinnati allowed an Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt of 7.4, sixth-most in the league.
Diving deeper, the Bengals posted a Defensive DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value over Average) of 13.4%, ranking them 30th in the league.
Finally, the number that will be the one to watch in 2020 is this one: Rushing yards allowed per game. The Bengals gave up 148.9 yards per game on the ground a season ago, most in the league.
Now, game situation and script obviously plays a huge role in that statistic. When you lose 14 games, you are going to be trailing an awful lot, and your opponents are going to be working the clock late in many fourth quarters. The Bengals faced 504 opposition rushing attempts, the most in the league and they were the only defense to face more than 500. But if the Bengals are going to take a step forward in 2020 as a defense, and get off the field on those third-down opportunities, improving their run defense is a noble goal. After all, they ranked 28th in the league in Defensive DVOA against the run.
Issues stopping the run showed up on film as well, particularly with respect to their run fits, and preventing cutback opportunities. This is one of those moments in covering football where the film and the numbers match up well. Watching this defense on film you see plays where teams had success against them on the ground using both zone and gap/power schemes.
For example, in Week 14 the Bengals lost to the Cleveland Browns by a final of 27-19, in a contest that featured one of Andy Dalton’s seven intentional spike plays from a year ago. In fact, it was the second-highest graded spike by our prestigious spike grading system here at Touchdown Wire.
In that game the Bengals allowed 146 yards rushing and two touchdowns on the ground, and this play is a perfect example of some of Cincinnati’s struggles stopping the run this past season:
Now, I am not the world’s foremost expert on run fits from a defensive perspective, but I know enough to understand that one of the linebackers here misses their assignment. Either rookie linebacker Germaine Pratt (#57) tries to cheat and backdoor this play, or veteran Nick Vigil (#59) overruns this play, but either way the backside A-Gap is completely open for the running back to exploit on a “bend” or cutback read. Nick Chubb (#24) does exactly that, bursting through the crease for a gain of 11 yards.
In their Week 13 victory over the New York Jets, the Bengals still struggled against the run, and against both zone and gap/power designs. On this play the offense runs an inside zone play using a split zone design. Le’Veon Bell (#26) aims his run to the right side of the formation and the offensive line flows in that direction as well. However, once more we see overpursuit from the second level, as Pratt flows to his left. This enables the Jets’ offensive line to seal off a backside crease, which the running back exploits:
Now here is Bell ripping off a solid gain on a power design often referred to as GT Counter:
The Jets probably put this design into their gameplan for Week 13 after seeing the Pittsburgh Steelers use it the previous week, on this play:
Running back Kerrith Whyte Jr. (#40) uses delayed footwork before settling behind David DeCastro (#66) who is pulling in front of him, and the young RB rips off a huge run of 16 yards.
So, what have the Bengals done to shore up their run defense this offseason, given these issues? One of their first free agent acquisitions was nose tackle D.J. Reader, who they signed to a four-year deal worth $53 million. They added veteran inside linebacker Josh Bynes, along with strong safety Vonn Bell, who was at his best during his time with the New Orleans Saints when playing in the box and working downhill against the run. Finally, they drafted linebacker Logan Wilson out of Wyoming in the third round, who was a four-year starter for the Cowboys. Wilson cracked Touchdown Wire’s Top 11 prospects at the LB position, and here is how we described his strengths:
Wilson is another throwback type of linebacker, who does his best work down near the line of scrimmage against the run. But what also shows up both on film and in testing is his athleticism. He has the explosiveness and the straight-line speed to handle some of what the pro game will ask of him. Wyoming let him function in underneath zone coverage as well as relying on him as a blitzer, and he is good enough at applying pressure to be a pass rushing specialist linebacker early in his career. His experience allows him to be very patient and comfortable in underneath zone coverage, and he will pass off receivers at just the right time before moving to the next player. He will come downhill and lay a stick on a ball-carrier, and is a sure tackler.
Tying these pieces together, the Bengals should be better against the run in 2020. Furthermore, if their offense is as improved as Bengals’ fans hope, the Cincinnati defense will face a more balanced game script in the season ahead, which might also improve their numbers against the run.