After Penn State’s upset win over Illinois at home on Tuesday, their March Madness hopes have been reignited.
Nittany Lions fans have been waiting for Penn State to get back into the tournament since their last appearance in 2011.
There are five games remaining in the Big Ten regular season. If Penn State wins out, it could cement itself as a legitimate option for the selection committee.
Right now, they do not have the resume.
The committee has changed its evaluation process to look at “Quadrant Wins” which are tiered from “Quad 1” being the most impressive wins to “Quad 4” being the least impressive.
The quadrants are calculated using the NET rating of opponents and factoring in where the games are played.
Currently, Penn State has a 3-6 record in “Quad 1” games and a 3-4 record in “Quad 2” games.
The good news is the Big Ten conference is projected to get eight of their 14 teams into this year’s tournament field.
USA Today’s latest bracketology predictions have Purdue, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Rutgers, Michigan State, Maryland, and Northwestern in the field.
Penn State faces three of these teams in their five remaining games.
College basketball analytics guru, Ken Pomeroy, uses data to predict the outcome of the remaining games on the schedule.
Here is how it looks.
- Minnesota (away) – Win 72-63
- Ohio State (away) – Loss 72-75
- Rutgers (home) – Win 67-66
- Northwestern (away) – Loss 66-70
- Maryland (home) – Loss 69-70
Based on the Ken Pom projections, Penn State will finish the season 2-3.
That certainly won’t be enough to get them into the tournament field. However, looking more closely at the opponents, there is still a chance they could win out, or at least close the final five games with a winning record.
Minnesota has a losing record on their home floor. Ohio State only has three conference wins. Rutgers and Maryland have two wins on the road.
The toughest game on paper will be against Northwestern who is second in the Big Ten standings and has a 12-4 home record.
This is a big slate of games for Penn State to put their final resume together to get an at large bid from the committee.
The first step in the process is on the road against Minnesota at 9 pm Eastern on Saturday.
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