Against a Los Angeles Chargers offense that wants to pass the ball, the Green Bay Packers are likely going to utilize a lot of split-safety looks defensively. If that’s the case, will they be able to hold up in the run game?
“That’s the challenge,” said Matt LaFleur of striking that balance between stopping the run and the pass. “I think any time somebody is as explosive as they are, especially in the pass game, you’re going to have to play some split safety, and you’re going to have to do a great job. That is a challenge.”
This is a Chargers offense led by quarterback Justin Herbert that wants to push the ball via the passing game. Los Angeles enters Week 11 ranked eighth in pass attempts per game, along with Herbert totaling the fifth most pass attempts of 20 or more yards. At receiver is Keenan Allen, who has the fourth-most receiving yards among receivers this season.
The benefit of playing Cover-2, or a shell coverage, is that it makes moving the ball vertically for opposing offenses more challenging because there is a safety on each side of the field on the back end. This approach will also provide the Packers’ potentially short-handed cornerback room, with Jaire Alexander listed as questionable, with some additional help over the top.
“Just keep the top on the defense and don’t let them go over the top,” said safety Anthony Johnson on Friday. “Not a lot of offensive coordinators want to dink-and-dunk the whole way. They want the big play they’re itching for. Just don’t let them have it.”
With that said, every coverage has its downsides as well, and when in Cover-2, defenses are more susceptible against the run with a gap up front often unaccounted for. The Chargers are in the middle of the pack in terms of rush attempts per game and are gaining just 3.8 yards per rush, good for 25th this season. For reference, the Steelers entered last week’s matchup averaging 3.7 yards per attempt, and we saw what happened.
If Los Angeles wants to take advantage of the matchup Green Bay is presenting them with while facing a run defense unit that has struggled this season, throwing a bit of a curveball the Packers way and choosing to lean more on the run game would make sense.
Although it had looked like the Packers’ run defense was trending in the right direction after their performances in Weeks 8 and 9, they are coming off a game where the Pittsburgh Steelers bullied them. Green Bay ended up allowing 200-plus rushing yards for the third time this season, with Najee Harris averaging 5.1 yards per rush and Jaylen Warren 6.7.
If the Packers do plan to live in that shell coverage defensive look, their tackling will have to be on point, with all 11 defenders swarming to the ball carrier to limit explosive runs. The front seven will have to maintain their assignments and gap integrity – an issue for this group last week – in order to prevent additional running lanes from being created.
“It was a combination of missed tackles (and) missed assignments,” said LaFleur when asked what went wrong in the run game last week. “There were a couple times where we were playing single-high defense, where it’s solo gap football, and we had two guys in one gap.
“There were a couple times where they got us in two-safety looks, and when you do that, you’re going to be a little short in terms of your front, and they took what should be five, six, seven-yard gains and made them into explosion plays. There’s a lot of things we could have done at a much higher level.”
On any single play, there isn’t that perfect play call that can effectively take away both the run and the pass. As LaFleur has said in the past, that’s part of the chess match, knowing when to dial up what call given the situation and the opponent’s tendencies. This matchup dictates that the Packers should try to limit the Chargers’ effectiveness through the air, but that then leaves an already questionable run defense unit in a disadvantageous situation.