Alabama head coach Nick Saban has as solid a case as any to be referred to as the greatest college football head coach of all time. Nobody will be able to justifiably dispute that given Saban’s growing list of accomplishments. Saban has coached Alabama to six national championships, including last season, and he has one more from his stint with LSU. Saban has also coached multiple Heisman Trophy winners, a ridiculous amount of first-round NFL draft picks, and he continues to keep things rolling.
This week also saw Alabama make the easiest decision in the world; extend Saban’s contract through 2028 season. That likely puts Alabama in a position to continue turning out double-digit win seasons for the better part of the next decade. But even if Alabama performs at the high level that the Crimson Tide have come to be known for through 2028, just how likely is it that Saban could sniff the Division 1 all-time coaching record of 409 wins? Could Saban have a realistic chance to catch Penn State’s Joe Paterno?
Saban will enter the 2021 college football season with 261 all-time victories, putting him 148 wins behind Payterno’s Division 1 record of 409 career victories. In order to tie Paterno’s record, Saban would have to average 18.5 wins per season now through the 2028 season. Because college football seasons are only a maximum of 15 games, it’s pretty safe to say it will be impossible for Saban to catch Paterno by the end of the 2028 season.
But who said Saban will actually be done after the 2028 season?
Saban will be 77 years old by the time his extended contract runs its course. Yes, even Saban is beginning to creep into that old familiar territory when it comes to older coaches. How long is too long to coach? Penn State fans dealt with it during Paterno’s later years. Florida State fans heard the same thing with the legendary Bobby Bowden. And Alabama knows full well what it is like to have a coach hang on as long as he can. Paul “Bear” Bryant retired at the age of 69 and passed away a week after he officially retired.
Who knows what Alabama football will look like in 2028, but Saban always seems to answer the call when faced with any slight hint of adversity. Even when there really is nothing to left to prove, Saban keeps on thriving.
Given Saban’s success, it is very possible he could decide to step into retirement at the end of his contract extension. But what if he didn’t? How much longer would he hang on? And would it be enough to reach Paterno’s record? Just how many seasons would Saban have to coach to reach Paterno’s all-time mark?
Since 2008, Alabama has averaged 12.5 wins per season, a truly absurd average given college football’s regular season is 12 games. But add on SEC championship games, bowl games, and two College Football Playoff games and the numbers soar for Alabama. If Saban were to keep Alabama at that ridiculous pace, he could reach Paterno’s 409 wins in 11.8 seasons. So call it 12 more seasons of Saban as head coach. That would take us to 2032, or just four more years after his current contract is set to expire.
Saban would be 81 years old by the time that 2032 season comes around. And that would be three years younger than Paterno was when he last coached in 2011.
All of a sudden, this doesn’t sound too far-fetched, does it?
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