Extreme proficiencies in one area have a way of hiding extreme deficiencies in other areas. A great sauce can disguise an overcooked slice of meat. A great lawn can make up for a domicile’s bland exterior. An excellent beard can hide a not-so-excellent jaw line. All like an efficient third-down offense can hide a fairly inefficient early-down offense. For better or for worse, greatness can overshadow items that need attention.
It’s that last category the Cowboys must contend with in 2024. Dallas led the entire NFL in two major third-down categories last season: They finished No. 1 in EPA/play on third downs and No. 1 in success rate on those snaps.
It hides the fact they were just eighth on early downs in EPA/play and sixth in early down success rate. Early downs are when the most efficient offenses typically make their biggest plays. 1st-and-10 is a time when an offense can realistically run or pass. Defenses subsequently play more honestly, and offenses can attack more opportunistically.
Alternately, third downs can be fairly predictable for a defense to scheme against. Defenses know an offense facing 3rd-and-3 is likely to pass. They know an offense facing 3rd-and-1 is likely to run. In these situations, an offense’s playbook shrinks, and the advantage tips to the defense’s favor.
San Francisco led the NFL in early down EPA/play in 2023, posting twice the output of the No. 2 team, Buffalo. It let them avoid high variance situations that often accompany third downs and kept their offense moving quickly and efficiently down field. They were able to put Brock Purdy in advantageous situations and avoid many of the difficulties that come with converting third downs.
The Cowboys, on the other hand, put enormous weight on Dak Prescott to bail them out. He did, leading Dallas to an EPA/dropback of 0.393 (No. 1 in NFL) and a dropback success rate of 51.0% (also No. 1 in NFL). But is that repeatable?
How often teams throw to their first-read on 3rd down and success rates. Mahomes and Allen confirmed aliens. pic.twitter.com/68hCGlq99e
— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) June 19, 2024
The Cowboys underwent a significant overhaul of their offensive line this offseason and as such, could experience a decline in pass protection in obvious passing situations. Protectors earn their money in obvious passing situations and since anything more than 3rd-and-1.5 qualifies as a passing situation, most third downs are typically considered obvious passing situations.
2024 will be about reverse engineering scenarios on offense. With two rookies expected to be inserted on the offensive line, pass protection will be volatile. The Cowboys will want to avoid obvious passing situations with that in mind. This means being more productive play on early downs and less reliance on Prescott bailing them out on third downs.
How the Cowboys go about achieving success on early downs is a topic for another day. Today it’s about taking the lipstick off the pig and seeing the offense for what it was. It was heavily reliant on elite third down play and not nearly as efficient as it needed to be on early downs.
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