For the first time in his professional career, Cam Newton is a free agent. And with all but three or four of the league’s starting quarterback jobs locked down, there aren’t many open seats left at the table. We’re at the point where it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Newton, one of the most gifted quarterbacks in the history of the NFL, will not be starting when(ever) the 2020 season kicks off.
That seemed unfathomable just two years ago, but that was also the last time we’ve seen anything remotely resembling a fully healthy Cam Newton. After he ended the two previous seasons on injured reserve, it’s fair to ask if we ever will again.
From a 30,000-foot view, the skepticism makes sense. It’s not just that Newton has failed to stay healthy over the last two seasons; it’s that one of those injuries was to his throwing shoulder and required major surgery. The last time we all watched Newton play football — that Thursday Night Football game against the Bucs back in Week 2 — something was clearly wrong with the 30-year-old quarterback. He looked … broken.
We later found out that it was a Lisfranc injury, which would eventually end Newton’s 2019 season prematurely. A foot injury with a three-to-five month recovery time wouldn’t scare most teams off from a starting-caliber quarterback. A bum shoulder would, obviously. So the question is worth asking: What was the root cause of Newton’s poor performance in 2019?
In order to answer that, we have to figure out which throws gave Newton the most problems during those two games. I charted every throw aimed beyond the line of scrimmage he attempted in 2019…
When you isolate the accurate and inaccurate throws, it becomes obvious which throws gave Newton the most trouble:
He couldn’t throw to his right. More specifically, he couldn’t hit throws to his right that were aimed outside of the numbers. Let’s isolate those throws:
When Newton missed those throws, he missed high for the most part. I don’t know if a weak shoulder is a viable explanation. Throws outside the numbers didn’t seem to be a problem for Newton when he was throwing to his left. In fact, he was generally accurate when throwing downfield anywhere else on the field other than his one particular weak spot.
The numbers back up my charting. Here are Newton’s 2019 splits on throws to the left and right sides of the field (outside the hash marks), via Sports Info Solutions:
LEFT:
Attempts: 33
On-Target: 84.8%
Completion: 75.8%
Yards/Attempt: 8.7
EPA: 10.2 (0.31 per attempt)
Success rate: 66.7%RIGHT:
Attempts: 44
On-Target: 54.5%
Completion: 45.5%
Yards/Attempt: 5.9
EPA: -8.4 (-0.19 per attempt)
Success rate: 36.4%
You’re looking at the difference between one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL and one of the best.
So what was going wrong on those throws to his right? I asked Nate Tice, who played quarterback at Wisconsin and worked on staffs in Oakland and Atlanta after his college career, to take a look at a cut-up of those throws.
Tice says Newton looked fine in the Week 1 game — even on the missed throws to the right — but that changed in Week 2:
“In the Bucs game, it looks like his mechanics got out of whack because he’s compensating for his foot,” Tice told me. “See his front shoulder get all raised up on those? Looks like he’s trying not to step too much into the front of his foot and it causes his shoulder to raise up.”
I can’t say with absolute certainty that the foot was the reason for all those ugly misses, but if Newton wasn’t missing throws to other spots on the field and the lead foot was the mechanical issue that was causing Newton to miss high, I do think we can rule out the shoulder as the root cause of those misses. If Newton’s shoulder was actually the problem with those throws to the right side, it would show up in his 2018 splits. And, well, it doesn’t…
Attempts: 196
On-Target: 83.3%
Completion: 70.4%
Yards/Attempt: 7.0
EPA: 37.5 (0.19 per attempt)
Success rate: 54.1%
Even if you just look at his numbers following the Week 10 game that kicked off his statistical slide, he actually performed better on those throws:
Attempts: 96
On-Target: 83.3%
Completion: 75.0%
Yards/Attempt: 8.0
EPA: 28.2 (0.29 per attempt)
Success rate: 61.5%
Newton said he was completely over the shoulder issues last September. The numbers seem to back that up. As does his film from the Week 1 game against the Rams, which featured a handful of throws that only a few quarterbacks are capable of making.
So maybe it’s been a while since we’ve last seen a fully healthy Newton, but it hasn’t been THAT long since we last saw him play good football. Midway through the 2018 season, only six players had better odds to win MVP, per William Hill Sportsbook. After eight games, he was on pace for career highs in just about every major passing category. All of that with a shoulder that wasn’t 100%.
Now the shoulder is healed and the only concern seems to be the Lisfranc injury. There isn’t a long track record of NFL quarterbacks suffering that particular injury, but the list is encouraging. Matt Schaub’s 2011 season was ended by a Lisfranc; he made his second and final Pro Bowl in 2012. Ben Roethlisberger suffered a Lisfranc injury in 2015 and that didn’t stop him from making the Pro Bowl in both 2016 and 2017. Both guys were older than Newton currently is when they made their return.
The shoulder doesn’t seem to be an issue. The foot shouldn’t be an issue going forward. If healthy, Newton is arguably one of the ten best quarterbacks in the NFL, and he was performing at that level the last time we saw him anywhere close to healthy.
So what are quarterback-needy teams waiting for? Sign Cam Newton.
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