Cam Newton, Heartbreak Hill and the marathon of the NFL off-season

Cam Newton is returning to the New England Patriots. While some want to panic, now is absolutely not the time for such a reaction.

Calm down, everyone.

While it might feel like a sprint, the NFL season is actually a marathon. We have yet to reach Heartbreak Hill, my friends.

With word breaking on Friday morning that the New England Patriots were re-signing Cam Newton to a one-year contract, portions of both the New England fan base, and the NFL community at large, were reacting rather, shall we say, strongly.

I’m here to remind you of a few things.

First, the Patriots have the third-most cap space of any NFL franchise.

Second, they have the 15th pick in the upcoming NFL draft.

Third, we do not know the exact terms of the contract.

Fourth, it is early March and the league year has yet to begin.

Calm down, everyone.

Having the third-most cap space of any NFL franchise matters little if you cannot convince free agents — particularly wide receivers and tight ends — to come play for you next season. An unsettled quarterback room is not a convincing bargaining chip. Bringing Newton back at least offers some clarity at the position. We will know in short order how Newton’s peers, particularly those who catch passes, feel about him. If the Kenny Golladays and the Hunter Henrys of the world are the next crop of players to walk through the door to Gillette Stadium, we’ll know how Newton’s peers feel about him.

They still have the 15th pick in the upcoming draft, and the flexibility to address quarterback with that selection, or even through trading up, if they identify a quarterback that they believe can be their QB of the future. If their scouting department leaves Fargo today after Trey Lance’s pro day believing that he is that quarterback, the Patriots will try and get into position to draft him. Or if they believe Mac Jones can be that player, they will do the same. The presence of Newton back in Foxborough does not mean that a rookie quarterback is off the table.

Third, as often happens when contracts are announced everyone reacts to the bottom-line number. However, it is important to remember that the terms of the deal have not been outlined and might not be for some time. Thanks to reporting, we can be fairly sure that the actual contract — and what Newton is likely to receiver — is likely going to be below that number:

So no, the Patriots did not just take $14 million of their available cap space and hand it to Newton. If the QB earns that number then let me tell you Patriots fans, that will be a good thing. Because it will mean that he hit every possible incentive under the terms of the contract and if that is the case, good things will have happened for the Patriots in 2021.

It also means that the Patriots are in no way committed to Newton even being the starting quarterback come Week 1. If a rookie beats him out, or another veteran that they bring in or if Jarrett Stidham beats him out, then Newton’s deal will end up in line with what other backup quarterbacks around the league are making.

Which leads us to this point: It is March 12th — at least I think — and the league year really has yet to begin. There are a lot of moves yet to be made, so judging the Newton return in a vacuum is a bit of a fool’s errand. Wait to see what the entire off-season looks like and then evaluate what New England has done. If bringing Newton back is their only move at the quarterback position, and they do not address positions like tight end or wide receiver, then sure, you might want to feel a bit unsettled. But say, hypothetically, Newton is but one move at the position and they do draft a rookie. Say they add some talent at tight end (Henry? Gerald Everett?) and wide receiver (Golladay? T.Y. Hilton?). Suddenly the Newton return makes a bit more sense.

Suddenly you have signs of an offense that can actually be good.

More than anything else, this decision by Bill Belichick indicates that the organization is taking the full context of 2020 into consideration with their evaluation of where Newton is, and what he can be. Remember. Newton signed late, did not get a full off-season in the program due to that and COVID-19 protocols. Even with that, he went out in Week 2 and had Patriots fans believing that the passing game could be better than expected, as this thread of film breakdowns indicates:

Then, however, Newton tested positive for COVID-19 himself, just prior to an expected showdown with the Kansas City Chiefs. The QB himself said that he was “stagnant” when he came back due to the lingering impact of the virus. That led in part to some disasterous games, like the loss to the San Francisco 49ers that ended with Newton watching from the bench.

But even after his return, he still had moments where it looked like he could be a QB to build around. Sure, it came in a loss to a brutal Houston Texans team with a defense that was…not great. But even in that game Newton showed you flashes of what he could be:

The Patriots are probably looking at Newton’s 2020 season and thinking that it was the “worst-case” scenario from him. Now with him coming back, it is up to them to put him in the best situation to meet the “best-case” scenario.

That is what they now have to do over the next few weeks.

The NFL season is a marathon, not a sprint. Panicking now about this move is akin to worrying about missing your 300-yard timed split 300 yards into the 26.2 mile journey that a marathon offers. There is a lot of ground to cover, and more moves to be made.

If this is indeed the only move the Patriots make on the offensive side of the football? Sure, then we are talking about Heartbreak Hill. But there is more to come, and if the Patriots can put Newton in a position to look more like the QB we saw against Houston, then this might end up being the move that pays off in the end.