Why BYU Will Win
– Zach Wilson is just that special. The 6-3, 210-pound junior isn’t Trevor Lawrence, but he’s a top 15 NFL Draft pick with the arm, the size, and the mobility to do everything right. He has a grand total of three interceptions on the year, he has rushed for eight scores, and he completed 73% of his passes for 3,267 yards and 30 touchdowns. He can hit the big play, he’s great at keeping the chains moving, and best of all, he doesn’t have to do everything with a great ground game to take the heat off.
– The Cougar success is coming from the great play from the lines. The run defense is a brick wall, the offensive line is great in pass protection and at springing the big runs, and UCF’s lines aren’t as good. They’re not bad, but they’re about to get powered on.
– Again, the ground game. Wilson is the signature star, but Tyler Allgeier averages over seven yards per carry with 12 scores, Lopini Katoa can thump, and the great line paves the way for all the parts that average over 200 rushing yards per game. UCF got hit for 242 yards by USF in the regular season finale and is guaranteed to give up at least 150 to this group.
Why UCF Will Win
– Dillon Gabriel isn’t Zach Wilson, but he’s a brilliant passer who can bomb away in any shootout. He can run a bit, has thrown for over nine yards per pass with 30 touchdowns and just four picks, and he’s even better than Wilson when it comes to getting the chains moving. BYU hasn’t faced a whole slew of big passing games, but it got hit for 310 yards by Houston. Gabriel will throw for 300 yards.
– The defense might not be fantastic, but it’s able to generate a whole lot of big plays. It leads the AAC and is second in the nation in takeaways with 22 – forcing two or more in six games. There likely won’t be any picks from Wilson, but the Cougars have turned it over three times in the last two games. Any takeaways will be massive to break up the offensive firefight.
– The BYU line is tough, strong, and great against the run, but it doesn’t do a whole lot to get into the backfield. There’s not a big pass rush, and it doesn’t come up with enough tackles for loss to matter. Give Gabriel time to work, and it’s off to the races.