Only 60 schools play Division I Men’s Ice Hockey. While there actually is an interesting backstory as to why there are so few top-level hockey schools, we’ll leave that aside for now. What is important is that 16 of the 60 teams make the NCAA Tournament, and Ohio State currently sits in the 16th spot.
How do I know that?
Well, unlike the vast majority of other NCAA sports, there is no real drama for the ice hockey tournament selections. The NCAA, like in all sports, releases its rankings criteria. The USCHO (United States College Hockey Online) mimics those criteria and releases the “PairWise rankings.” The most important thing about the rankings is that it is always correct as to which teams the selection committee picks. So while there is a selection committee and a selection show, the at-large teams are known in advance.
For most of this season, the Buckeyes were easily inside the Top 10 and well in the tournament. However, Ohio State has hit a bit of a skid, going 1-4-1 in its last six games. Three of those losses came to Minnesota and Michigan, two teams well outside the Top 16. That’s not a good stretch, and the Buckeyes currently sit at No. 15 in the PairWise rankings.
There are six men’s hockey conference, each of which receives an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. The Atlantic Hockey champion is well outside the Top 16, and will remain that way through the end of the season. That puts the No. 15 team in the final bubble spot. The top team from every other conference is ahead of No. 15 Ohio State at the moment.
However, this is a very precarious situation for the Buckeyes to be in. A single bid thief would bump Ohio State out of an at-large spot. The Big Ten (Penn State) and WCHA (Minnesota State) each only have one Top 15 team. Each of those conferences is ripe for a bid thief.
The Buckeyes are off this weekend, and have four regular-season games remaining. Two are on the road against Michigan State, followed by the season-ending home series against Wisconsin. The Spartans are currently a respectable No. 19 in the PairWise rankings, but the Badgers are down at No. 37. Ohio State can probably maintain its ranking–or maybe even move up a spot or two–even if it splits the series with Michigan State. But a home loss to Wisconsin would all but end any at-large hopes. The Buckeyes need to sweep that series over the final weekend in February.
The Big Ten tournament has a best-of-three first-round series. Depending on what seed the Buckeyes get (it looks like it will be No. 3 or No. 4, but they’re still in the mix for the No. 2 spot), they could also need a sweep there to avoid a bad loss.
Of course, more will affect the at-large picture than just Ohio State’s remaining games. There are several teams right near the Buckeyes in the rankings, including Maine–who has a series against No. 38 UConn this weekend. A loss there, like for Ohio State against Wisconsin in a few weeks, is awful for the resume.
There are only three weekends of regular-season hockey left, and a lot can happen. It’s both exciting and nerve-wracking for Ohio State fans, as the Buckeyes sit right on the bubble. We’ll check back in with the bubble situation after this weekend’s games as the season enters crunch time.