Several reports are floating around now, bringing the whispers many have heard quietly for weeks into the mainstream cacophony: The Cleveland Browns have legitimate interest in signing free agent EDGE Jadeveon Clowney. ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler and The Seattle Times’ Bob Condotta both reported the interest on Saturday.
Browns have recently been mentioned as a potential suitor for Clowney. Sounds like they may be making a serious run. But as Fowler notes, nothing appears imminent. https://t.co/cCmjhuPErk
— bcondotta (@bcondotta) April 4, 2020
Fans are probably quite excited at hearing Clowney’s name. He still carries significant recognition and cache value from being the No. 1 overall pick in 2014. His crushing hit on Michigan RB DeVeon Smith while at South Carolina remains one of the biggest college football highlights of the last decade.
Here’s the reality check, from someone who covered Clowney’s 2017-2018 seasons in Houston and watched most of his NFL snaps before and after it, including last season in Seattle.
He’s not better than the Olivier Vernon who played in Cleveland in 2019. He’s certainly not worth paying more than Vernon is due to make in 2020 even though Clowney has already lowered his contract expectations.
Here’s how Clowney and Vernon stacked up last season, the first year with new teams for both veteran pass rushers.
| Snaps | Sacks | QB Pressures
(Per PFF) |
PFF pass rush
grade |
Overall PFF
grade |
|
| Vernon | 508 | 4 | 24 | 75.7 | 80.4 |
| Clowney | 712 | 3 | 43 | 76.7 | 80.8 |
Clowney did generate more pressure per pass rush snap in Seattle than Vernon did in Cleveland. But the grades are almost exactly the same and Vernon converted more of those pressures into sacks. Clowney hit the QB just two more times than Vernon (13 to 11) in over 200 more snaps, per Pro Football Reference. The Browns just signed Adrian Clayborn, who had four sacks, 39 hurries and a 76.7 PFF pass rush grade in less than 450 snaps for just $6 million for 2020.
There are two days to interpret that information. Either Clowney isn’t as good as advertised or the $20 million a year he was asking for, or Vernon is better than Browns fans — most of whom want him shipped out of town on a high-speed train — think he was.
Where Browns GM Andrew Berry and his staff really need to be mindful is in the economics of the situation. If they want to bring in Clowney and replace Vernon, it’s somewhat justifiable from a football sense. While they’ve been very similar players for the last few years, Clowney is over two years younger. Clowney has missed just five games in the last three years to Vernon’s 15. But the money must matter, too.
Vernon is in the final season of a contract he signed years ago with the New York Giants. He will earn $15.5 million in 2020 and then he’s a free agent. No future obligations are due Vernon, which is important for a Browns team that needs to come up with contract extensions for Myles Garrett, Baker Mayfield, Denzel Ward, Nick Chubb and (maybe) Kareem Hunt in the next 12-18 months.
Clowney earned $15 million in 2019, a figure split between the Texans and Seahawks. He got dealt because he wanted more from the Texans than the franchise tag figure, and he didn’t re-sign with the Seahawks for the same reason. This past week, Clowney dropped his long-term contract demands to $17-$18 million per season from the $20 million per year he was previously seeking, according to ESPN’s Dianna Russini.
That’s simply not a worthwhile swap, especially considering the rate Clayborn — again, a more effective pass rusher than either Clowney or Vernon — just signed for with the Browns. The cap room beyond 2020 is more important than a literal handful of extra QB pressures Clowney might (might!) generate this fall.
Now if Clowney agrees to sign a one-year deal for the same money Vernon is making, it’s a smart move. But that’s about the only way the Browns’ pursuit of Clowney makes sense.