The Milwaukee Bucks (36-24) host the Brooklyn Nets (31-29) Saturday at Fiserv Forum for an 8:30 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we look at the Nets vs. Bucks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
This will be Milwaukee’s first game since the All-Star Break. The Bucks are the 4-seed in the East, 3 games behind the Miami Heat and Chicago Bulls for first place. Milwaukee is 20-11 straight up (SU) and 11-20 against the spread (ATS) at home.
Brooklyn took a 129-106 beatdown at home Thursday administered by the Boston Celtics. The Nets are eighth in the East, 3.5 games behind the sixth-place Celtics and 3.5 games ahead of the 11th-place Washington Wizards. Brooklyn is 18-13 SU and 16-15 ATS on the road.
The Bucks are 2-0 SU and ATS versus the Nets this season and Brooklyn had Kevin Durant active for both games. Milwaukee’s F Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 31.5 points, 10.5 rebounds and 8.0 assists with a plus-21 net rating in the first two Nets-Bucks meetings.
Nets at Bucks odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:45 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Nets +360 (bet $100 to win $360) | Bucks -500 (bet $500 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Nets +9.5 (-107) | Bucks -9.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 236.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
Nets at Bucks key injuries
Nets
- PG Goran Dragic (reconditioning) available
- SF Kevin Durant (knee) out
- PG Ben Simmons (reconditioning) out
Bucks
- SG Pat Connaughton (finger) out
- C Brook Lopez (back) out
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Nets at Bucks odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Bucks 122, Nets 111
Money line
PASS even though Milwaukee should win this game running away because the Milwaukee (-500) is just too pricey for an NBA regular-season ML favorite.
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Against the spread
“LEAN” to the BUCKS -9.5 (-107) for a half-unit only because there’s more money on the Nets +9.5 (-115) while the public is hammering Milwaukee. Tn sports betting you typically want to follow the money if it’s counter to the public.
However, the Nets have been terrible defensively lately and the Bucks beat up on bad defenses. Milwaukee is 18-6 SU versus bottom-10 defenses with a plus-11.3 adjusted net rating (ranked third) and a plus-3.0 ATS margin (ranked 10th), according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
The Bucks are also sixth in offensive rating and the Nets are getting trounced by good offenses. Brooklyn is 4-13 SU versus top-10 offenses with a minus-7.5 adjusted net rating (ranked 24th) and a minus-6.5 ATS margin (ranked 29th), per CTG.
Over/Under
BET the UNDER 236.5 (-107) for a three-fourths unit because this should be the least popular bet in this game and that’s generally how you find value in sports betting.
Plus a vast majority of the action is on the Over so we have a fade the market angle and the total is 1-9-1 O/U in the last 11 Nets-Bucks meetings.
If this game is as one-sided as the 9.5-point spread indicates then this game might die down in the fourth quarter.
The UNDER 236.5 (-107) is my favorite wager in this game.
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