If it wasn’t for the Cowboys’ horrific run defense against the Buffalo Bills on Sunday, the Dallas offense would be facing significantly more criticism than they currently are. They were stagnant offensively, and aside from a garbage touchdown late, they were held out of the end zone all day.
In some ways, the Bills took a page from the recently unemployed Brandon Staley and his 2-high scheme that slowed Dallas in Week 6. Buffalo pushed back the coverage and took away big shots downfield. Because their pass rush was routinely getting home, they didn’t need to blitz much. They were able to sit back in coverage and keep things thick in the secondary. They allowed the Cowboys to run the ball and dared them to throw it to the sticks.
And the Cowboys did well rushing the ball. Their success rate on early down runs was at 50.0%, which is well above their season average of just 36.7%. Unfortunately, the Cowboys defense had issues of their own and after falling behind rather quickly, the offense felt compelled to abandon the running game – thus playing into Buffalo’s hands.
Dak Prescott has been phenomenal for most of this season. While he’s played well against many different coverages in 2023, he’s at his best against middle of the field closed looks. He rates at the top of the NFL against those Cover-1 and Cover-3 coverages. It’s just when the safeties split, he slips back into average territory. Part of this is scheme and strategy, but part is also execution.
Absent in Buffalo were the middle of the field throws that he had been executing with precision all season long. It’s a great way to attack split safeties but Prescott only attempted two passes of 10+ yards between the numbers all day. He was pressured last week but all four of his turnover-worthy throws were without facing pressure.
After they watch the film, Miami will no doubt employ a similar plan of attack. When Nick Bosa declared the blueprint to beating the Eagles had been laid out by his 49ers defense, he did so knowing film is public information in the NFL and teams love to copycat and attack weaknesses once they’ve been identified. The Cowboys should expect the same treatment from their upcoming opponents.
The Dolphin’s defense has different strengths and weakness than Buffalo’s, but they’d be fools not to try the same thing that essentially stonewalled the Cowboys. Mike McCarthy’s task is planning for what surely lies ahead.
Dump offs and early down runs are fine if the situation warrants it and the offense is successfully executing such plays. The opposing defense wants Dallas in a third-and-long so there’s nothing wrong with the Cowboys taking some easy early gains so they can avoid bad third down situations.
The Cowboys also have to remember the middle of the field is a great way to get big plays against split safety looks as well. And when the defense plays 2-man like Buffalo often did, (man coverage with two safeties over the top), opportunities for scrambles open up.
In Week 15 the Cowboys appeared ill-prepared to play the Bills defense. In Week 16 they will have no such excuse because what’s coming is fairly obvious.
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