Clemson suffered an 81-76 loss on Saturday at Wake Forest. How much did that loss cost the Tigers in projected NCAA Tournament seeding?
Longtime ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi moved the Tigers (21-10 overall, 11-9 ACC) from a No. 5 to a No. 6 seed in his latest projections, released early Tuesday.
Clemson had been a 5 seed after wins over Pitt and Syracuse, but the Tigers suffered back to back road losses to close the regular season. They have dropped two of their last three games entering this week’s ACC Tournament.
Lunardi now sees a first-round No. 6 vs. No. 11 seed matchup between Clemson and the winner of a play-in game between St. John’s and Indiana State in the First Four in Dayton, Ohio. The Red Storm are one of six Big East schools Lunardi forecasts to make the Dance. St. John’s enters the Big East Tournament at 19-12 overall and 11-9 in conference play.
Indiana State (28-7, 17-3) plays in the Missouri Valley Conference. Drake (29-6, 17-3) won a head to head matchup between the two schools in Sunday’s Missouri Valley Conference Tournament championship game to secure its spot in the NCAA Tournament as an automatic qualifier.
The MVC typically doesn’t have more than one team make the Dance, but there is some precedent for the league receiving two bids. In 2021, Drake received an at-large berth in the tournament after Loyola Chicago won the conference tournament. Working in Indiana State’s favor is that the Sycamores enter the week 29th in the NCAA’s NET rankings.
The potential Clemson vs. St. John’s/Indiana State tilt would take place at Pittsburgh’s PPG Paints Arena in the East Region of the tournament, Lunardi foresees. No. 3 seed Kentucky and No. 14 seed Morehead State are in the same bubble in Lunardi’s latest projections.
ACC regular season champion North Carolina is a projected No. 2 seed with Duke as a 3 seed. Virginia is a projected 11 seed and one of Lunardi’s “Last Four In.” Pitt and Wake Forest are ACC teams that also have a chance to play their way into the NCAA Tournament with big weeks.
Lunardi awards the most NCAA Tournament bids by conference to the Big 12 with nine, followed by the SEC with seven. His projected No. 1 seeds are Purdue, Houston, UConn, and Tennessee.
Clemson returns to the court Wednesday when the Tigers face the winner of Tuesday’s ACC Tournament opener between Miami and Boston College at Washington, D.C.’s Capital One Arena. Tipoff is listed as 9:30 p.m. (EDT). The game will be televised on either ESPN2 or ESPNU.